When I handicapped the El Camino Real Derby and assigned fair odds of winning to each of the eight entrants in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Derby prep race on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields, I did so without knowing the morning line.
I assumed either No. 1 Gilmore or No. 2 Chase the Chaos would be the favorite and thought maybe I'd get some value on the latter. The former is conditioned by Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, and that usually attracts dollars.
I was stunned to see No. 4 Passarando was the 2-1 morning-line favorite against this group, a reaction that's easy to understand when you see that I have him as the co-sixth-likeliest winner among the octet.
Bluntly, I just don't see Passarando as fast enough. Pedigree gives him a potential edge given the 1 1/8-mile distance, but I think he'll have too much to do here and is a complete fade for me.
If Passarando really is the favorite, then that means tons of potential on even our top two choices. I gave a slight edge to Chase the Chaos, who went from second behind the horse we're fading at big odds to a winner at this track on this surface at even money. That race was the best on the page and why I have him as the likeliest winner.
