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Breeders' Cup 2017

Derby Dosage 139

The 2013 Kentucky Derby
is now history. It will be remembered mostly for two things. The winner was Orb and the track was a muddy mess. If you are anything like myself, coming so close to a superfecta in a giant race makes you want to go back and look to see where you went wrong. What did I miss? What did I ignore? With pools so high in a race like the Derby, every stone needed to be turned and looked under prior to the race. Understanding the favorites and why they are the favorites, how they worked at Churchill and what was said about them. Which one was ready to burst, which one was on a down-swing. How would the track play, who would own the pace and who would come flying at the end.
Who were the best 4 horses on that field of twenty and who would falter.

I am sure that most found themselves constantly going through the field of these three year olds even while showering. For weeks leading up to the big day their names swirled in your head like a terrible song that keeps you up at night. Friends who know nothing of the sport tolerated your long winded analysis and you tolerated their ignorance just for the ability to speak out loud the thoughts that brewed in your head every second of the day.

fter post analysis has been completely drained and thoughts of Preakness and Triple Crowns and Ogden Phipps jump up and take center stage, my post analysis boils down to one thing. Slop.

Yes. Slop. With a bit of common sense thrown in. What does it take to win the Kentucky Derby, the hardest and longest race any of these young colts have ever faced with the added bonus of a thick and muddy track to hamper even the best of them. It takes a ton of Stamina and a ton of Speed to get that job done. It takes a colt of great breeding, esteemed pedigree and little bit of luck aided by faltering foes who give a wave to those who easily pass them by. Common sense. Sounds difficult before the fact and much easier after the fact but this is where learning comes from and how future situations can be looked at from a different angle without much grief.

The chart below explains alot to me. I did study this beforehand. I chose to ignore what I saw. I will not make the same mistake again.

                                     Dosage        Points      Index       CD

  • Goldencents                 1-2-4-1-0           8           1.67          .38
  • Vyjack                          6-0-6-2-0          14           1.80         .71
  • Oxbow                         6-0-8-0-0          14            2.50         .86
  • Will Take Charge         6-10-8-0-2         26           3.33         .69
  • Ismyluckyday               4-3-7-0-0          14            3.00         .79
  • Revolutionary             10-8-12-1-1        32            3.00         .78
  • Falling Sky                  2-1-8-1-0           12            1.40         .33
  • Orb                             11-12-15-0-2       40            3.21         .75
  • Verrazano                    9-0-17-0-0         26            2.06         .69
  • Lines Of Battle             4-6-17-0-1         28            1.95         .43
  • Java's War                   8-1-10-5-0         24            1.40         .50
  • Overanalyze                5-1-6-0-0           12            3.00         .92
  • Palace Malice             4-5-11-0-0          20            2.64         .65
  • Normandy Invasion     9-6-8-1-0            24           3.80         .96
  • Frac Daddy                  5-0-4-1-0           10            2.33         .90
  • Mylute                         1-1-4-0-0             6            2.00         .50
  • Golden Soul                11-5-18-4-0         38           1.92         .61
  • Giant Finish                  4-1-17-0-0         22           1.59         .41            

The top three finishers in Derby 139 inherited the highest amount of Speed and Stamina from their respective chefs-de-race. As shown in points they placed in exact order of finish. The fourth place finisher had the highest Index and the Highest C.D. out of the entire field. THE TOP! IN ORDER! Dosage Analysis could be construed as coincidence by many. I will put it in my back pocket for the next Derby run on a sloppy track and I will not disregard any of the horses that fall into that high chef-de-race pedigree again. Dosage is not coincidence. It is an occurrence.  


Written by Lisa DeMichael  


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Older Comments about Derby Dosage 139...

This is fantastic information. Sometime we over think the derby field and forget to look at the basic.
Rafi, I will send you the analysis from last years Derby. It was a nice sunny day and a fast track. The top four finishers comprised the highest in all three catagories and the lowest in all three catagories. El Padrino and Alpha were part of that but they faltered. I'll Have Another, Bodi, Creative Cause, Dullahan and Went the Day Well were all present in those top spots within that criteria..
So, the points is an overview basically of what the index and CD is? So, I'm assuming that Dosage Points are the easiest way to calculate the stamina/speed which is imbedded in the pedigree? One thing I noticed while looking at the Derby results is, if they have a low number, they MUST have a low Dosage Index (correct terminolgogy?)... For example, I'll Have Another had only 14 points, but a 2.11 Index. I'm still a bit confused, but I'm starting to get the basics. Sorry for the pita questions. Thanks for your help. These are the enlightening days where people are helping each other out to learn more about the game without insults and bullying... Me Icy, You, probably more will chime in to help Jmac learn the extra tools he wishes to learn. You're helping me with Dosage, etc. We should take advantage, because certain people will come on and ruin it. I've been emailing Jay S recently, Lisa, and I'm sure he's laughing his ass off with the last couple sentences I wrote about "certian people" (hint, hint, Jay :P)
Rafi, Lower dosage means higher index and CD. This is the reason. Put the combination together and you come up with highest and lowest. The Index number is the 5 digit profile shown in one calculated number. Dosage Points are just any easy way to look at the 5 numbers in their totality.
Lisa. Interesting how the lowest and highest make up the superfecta? It's a bit confusing how High/LOW make the super. I might start graphing these results in G1 and G2 races to experiment with the patterns that emerge for the slop and a normal fast track.. Thanks for your help.
Rafi, Dosage, for me, matters not just for Derby for any Graded 1 stakes race. Usually, on a normal fast track, the top 4 finishers will be comprised of the top 2 in HIGHEST and the top 2 in lowest. Incredible chef de race pedigree in high speed and the same in stamina. It happens over and over again. This year, I believe the sloppy track had a major affect and threw out the low dosage horses based on lack of stamina for the conditions. Speed was not enough to go the Classic distance. In your analysis of last years Derby the four finishers were a combination of highest and lowest, which is usual under normal conditions.
^^^^Just my two cents. I did the places off memory, so I didn't study the superfecta every year... I'll study more in a littlw bit.
Lisa. So, I just spent about 15 minutes studying previous Derby Dosage patterns. In the 2012 Derby, I'll Have Another only had 14 points, but a 2.11 Index. Bodemeister had 32 points. Dullahan had 26 points. Went the Day Well had only 16 points, but a 1.91 Dosage. I looked at several Derbies in the past years to look at these patterns. There ARE certain years where your patterns DO NOT work. In the 2005 Derby, the winner was Giacomo (4.33 and 16 points), the 2nd place horse was Closing Argument (4.33 Dosage and 10 points) and the 3rd place finisher was Afleet Alex (2.11 and 14 points)... In 2006, Barbaro had 46 points (therefore, WOW!).. The 2nd place finisher Bluegrass Cat had 32 points. In 2007, the winner Street Sense had a respectable 22 points. In 2nd Place Hard Spun had 44 points (wow!) and Curlin had 38 points in 3rd place. In 2008, Dosage again worked for the trifecta. In 2009, it didn't work.. In 2010 it was respectable, 2011 eh, in 2012 it worked, and in 2013 it definitely worked. I'm still trying to figure out how Dosage plays on sloppy tracks. In 2009, Mine That Bird had terrible Dosage. In 2010, Super Saver only had respectable Dosage. Only in 2013 did Dosage truly work in the slop. Dosage is NOT a pattern that will happen every race. However, it is NOT a coincidence (referring to your last sentence)... Dosage works, but not in every single race. I think this is an extra tool to handicapping, but the sample is that it will not work race after race (just like ANY other handicapping method)...
Great info, Lisa. If only you posted this before the race!!! I must ask a question, though. How does a high CDI and Dosage rating good (speaking of Normandy Invasion)??? I thought the lower Dosage (3.80?) and CDI (.96???) was better, not higher. My other question is, why is Dosage only matter for the Derby when it is sloppy?
That is too funny! Still looking to see him break out. He'll figure out what he's made of someday.
I think the owners and trainers were just holding that horse in front of us like candy.
Yes Jmac, more often than not. One of the main reasons I fell in love with Powerful and hoped that he would have made it to the big race. He was loaded in dosage even more than Orb.
I think it matters!
Sully, I'm sure you would have liked it even more had we looked at it before the race! :)
Still want to see him pick a winner. Haven't seen it yet.
Like, Lisa. Big time
This ones for you Travel Vic. You're right. Pedigree and Condition of the track mean absolutely nothing.

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