DeRosa: 1 horse is a massive overlay in all-Baffert Lewis

DeRosa: 1 horse is a massive overlay in all-Baffert Lewis

I'll spare you the jokes about how Bob Baffert is going to win the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and instead assert that the other, other, other Baffert in the race on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, No. 4 Hard to Figure, is, well, hard to figure.

That still leaves three very logical contenders in the field of four 3-year-olds conditioned by the Hall of Fame trainer. Because no one but a Baffert trainee can finish this race, Churchill Downs Inc. will award no points for its road to the Kentucky Derby.

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But wagering could be rewarded, and based on a morning line that has Arabian Lion the favorite and Newgate the second choice, No. 3 Worcester is the likely play for me.

Simply put, he's the fastest of these based on Ragozin, and that's enough for me to bet on the third choice in the field of four.

And of course, there's precedent for a longer-priced Baffert-trained horse to win against uncoupled stablemates.

In the last five years, Baffert has had four wagering interests in five races. He's won four of those races, two each with the first and second choices among the Bafferts. 

In the last five years, he's had at least two individual betting interests in 352 races. He has won 57 percent of those races, and 29.4 percent of those winners were longer-priced horses.

Baffert has had three starters 39 times with 25 wins, but only three of those came with the longest price of the trio. He's never had his longest price win when starting four horses. So Hard to Figure would be the first to fill that category.

2023 Robert B. Lewis G3

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