Wagering on Kentucky Derby 2021 opened Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern. In the lead-up to Saturday's 1 1/4-mile classic at Churchill Downs, the live odds will be updated regularly in this space.
At about 5:20 p.m. EDT on Saturday, $22,936,609 had been wagered in the Kentucky Derby win pool. The pool includes the first $500,000 wagered by Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngavale on Essential Quality on Friday. At about 1:30 EDT Saturday, McInvgvale told HRN he had bet another $400,000 on Essential Quality – his second $400,000 bet on the colt of the day, then added another $500,000 Saturday afternoon. He currently has wagered a total of $1.8 million on the program favorite. McIngvale is expected to put upwards of $4 million on Essential Quality prior to the gates opening Saturday at about 6:57 p.m. EDT.
With Friday's large bet, Essential Quality dropped all the way to 3-5 for a few hours on Friday. He has since floated back up to 5-2 as additional money has poured into the pool. Rock Your World is next at 5-1 followed by Hot Rod Charlie at 6-1.
Also, with Malathaat winning Friday's Kentucky Oaks, below you will find the will-pays for the Kentucky Derby-Kentucky Oaks double.
King Fury had to be scratched on Friday after spiking a fever.
Tracking the Kentucky Derby odds is important in any year because millions of dollars are bet throughout the day and the odds will change up until race time. As of Saturday morning, $1.9 million was in the win pool, but this is only about 5 percent of what the total betting will be. So this is still only a glimpse into the final odds.
But tracking the Kentucky Derby odds is even more important this year, because Mattress Mack has stated that he will bet $1,000,000 (or more) on the Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality. When Mack bet $500,000 on Essential Quality on Friday, that knocked his odds down from 5-1 to 3-5 in one bet, but by Saturday morning Essential Quality's odds were up to 6-5.
Economist and handicapper Marshall Gramm noted that using the Oaks-Derby doubles, which is a separate bet, you can start to imply what the final Kentucky Derby odds may look like.
Projected KY Derby odds imputed from the Oaks-Derby double. $2,792,122 bet. (You’re not going to get 7/2 on Essential Quality) pic.twitter.com/WbjOgnsycJ— Marshall Gramm (@truxtonstables) May 1, 2021
In the Oaks-Derby doubles, Essential Quality is 3.70-1, but that may be because Mattress Mack didn't participate in that wager.
Here are the Kentucky Derby odds tracked through Saturday morning:
|Kentucky Derby horse||Morning Line||$2 Oaks-Derby will-pays||Saturday|
|Saturday 2:50 p.m.||Saturday 5:20 p.m.|
|1. Known Agenda||6-1||$31.20||16-1||10-1||11-1||11-1||11-1|
|2. Like the King||50-1||$224.00||57-1||50-1||50-1||49-1||45-1|
|3. Brooklyn Strong||50-1||$323.00||55-1||40-1||39-1||39-1||39-1|
|6. O Besos||20-1||$128.40||45-1||38-1||38-1||38-1||38-1|
|8. Medina Spirit||15-1||$47.90||15-1||12-1||12-1||12-1||12-1|
|9. Hot Rod Charlie||8-1||$31.30||7-1||6-1||6-1||5-1||5-1|
|10. Midnight Bourbon||20-1||$53.10||15-1||13-1||13-1||13-1||12-1|
|11. Dynamic One||20-1||$118.70||45-1||38-1||39-1||39-1||40-1|
|13. Hidden Stash||50-1||$190.30||39-1||34-1||33-1||33-1||33-1|
|14. Essential Quality||2-1||$14.80||6-5||5-2||5-2||5-2||5-2|
|15. Rock Your World||5-1||$19.00||9-2||9-2||5-1||5-1||5-1|
|16. King Fury (scratched)||20-1||XXX||XXX||XXX||XXX||XXX||XXX|
|17. Highly Motivated||10-1||$43.40||16-1||11-1||11-1||11-1||11-1|
|18. Super Stock||30-1||$170.60||46-1||29-1||30-1||32-1||32-1|
|19. Soup and Sandwich||30-1||$184.00||30-1||24-1||24-1||24-1||24-1|