Count ’em: 14 new names to consider in Kentucky Derby odds

Count ’em: 14 new names to consider in Kentucky Derby odds

While Nevada bookmakers were keeping up with the comings and goings of points preps for the 2021 Kentucky Derby, they polarized the extremes in their futures books.

Life Is Good is no longer the unanimous favorite or co-favorite. Not after William Hill Nevada shortened Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality to 7-1. He appears to be taking more action than he is offering lately; his 3-year-old debut not expected until next month.

At the same time, Circa Sports is daring anyone to take any kind of chance on Erawan. A winner on debut at Laurel Park in early November, he has lost his last four starts, most recently finishing fifth Saturday in a black-type stakes at Laurel Park. Circa drifted his odds to 750-1.

Between the shortest and longest prices, 14 horses were added to the futures mix in the past week. Some ran their way into serious consideration for bettors. Others looked like placeholders.

Concert Tour (15-1 Circa, 20-1 William Hill). He is a Gary and Mary West homebred colt by Street Sense out of a Tapit mare that is trained by Bob Baffert. No wonder he merited so much attention Friday, when he was made an even-money favorite for his debut at Santa Anita. Under a Joel Rosario hand ride he did not disappoint, leading the whole way and winning the six-furlong maiden race by 3 1/2 lengths with a time of 1:10.40, earning him a Beyer Speed Figure of 88.

Bezos (13-1 Circa, 30-1 William Hill). Not only is this another Baffert colt, but he may be that rarest of commodities — an unraced horse in the William Hill futures. By Empire Maker out of an A. P. Indy mare, he has gradually been working longer in the mornings at Santa Anita, taken handily around five furlongs Thursday in 1:01.0. Bought for $400,000 by the same connections who campaigned Authentic, an unspecified debut figures to be right around the corner.

Proxy (65-1 Circa). Despite a bumpy start in Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds, trainer Mike Stidham’s two-time winner looked like a worthy graduate from allowance company. He tracked eventual winner Midnight Bourbon around the two turns and 1 1/16 miles, getting within a length at the wire to finish second. Stidham said the Godolphin homebred by Tapit should enjoy the longer distances of the next two Fair Grounds preps.

Candy Man Rocket (80-1 Circa, 75-1 William Hill). Trainer Bill Mott saddled this Candy Ride colt’s 9 1/4-length triumph in a six-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 9. The 1:11.28 time was worth an 85 Beyer. It was a marked improvement over his seventh-place finish going 6 1/2 furlongs in the slop two months ago at Churchill Downs.

Hozier (75-1 Circa, 35-1 William Hill). Even Baffert does not have a winner in every first-time start. In his own debut, this Pioneerof the Nile colt faded late in stablemate Concert Tour’s victory, finishing 14 lengths up the track in fourth despite having Flavien Prat as his jockey. Although he cost the Authentic connections $625,000, he was not as highly regarded by bettors Friday, when he was made a 9-5 second choice.

Dream Shake (125-1 Circa). If it is Saturday morning, it must be time for trainer Peter Eurton to bring this Twirling Candy colt out of his barn for a workout. Still unraced, he has had a timed work for eight weeks in a row, including a gate drill two weeks ago. Justin Border, one of the owners of 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court, paid only $75,000 last April for this under-the-radar prospect.

Martini Blu (125-1 Circa). It has been 15 years since Sweetnorthernsaint came out of Chicagoland to be the post-time favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Now there is a colt by Maclean’s Music trying to emulate him. At 6-1, Martini Blu upset odds-on favorite Dream Keeper to win his first start, a one-mile and 70-yard maiden race Christmas weekend at Hawthorne. Trainer Hugh Robertson has taken the $40,000 colt to Arkansas, where he was entered into Friday’s running of the Smarty Jones Stakes, the Derby points prep on opening day at Oaklawn Park.

Pregame (125-1 Circa). Here is a case of a closer that made a positive impression without winning. With Florent Geroux riding for trainer Rusty Arnold, this More Than Ready colt belied his 15-1 odds to rally from ninth and finish third in a seven-furlong debut on Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs. Then again he made up only 2 3/4 lengths of ground. Now training in Florida, his sudden appearance in the futures book looks like the handiwork of a sizable Las Vegas bet.

Moonlite Strike (150-1 Circa). Bettors have asked for plenty from trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s colt by Liam’s Map, making him the favorite in all three of his starts. He delivered victories in his last two, once on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park West and then on a dry one at Gulfstream Park (the original). That set him up for Friday’s Smarty Jones at Oaklawn, which like his last race is one mile. Not bad for a horse that failed to attain his reserve price at two sales last year.

Big Thorn (250-1 Circa). Another entrant for the Smarty Jones, trainer Steve Asmussen is hoping to draw a line through a 10th-place finish three weeks ago in the Mucho Macho Man. That was the first time this colt by The Big Beast tried something longer than the sprint distances at which he had won twice, both at Gulfstream Park West.

Hardly Swayed (250-1 Circa). It took three tries for trainer Rey Hernández to get this Bernardini colt out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare to break his maiden. Now, two wins later, he takes the big jump from $20,000 Mahoning Valley sprints to the Smarty Jones.

Lawlessness (350-1 Circa). Bring on another one from Illinois. Trainer Ingrid Mason has cross-entered this maiden-winning Congrats colt out of an Awesome Again mare into both the Smarty Jones on Friday and a six-furlong Oaklawn allowance race Saturday. Lawlessness has raced in three sprints, winning on his second try in October at Hawthorne.

Regular Guy (350-1 Circa). In anticipation of the Lecomte, Circa Sports had opened this maiden winner at 250-1. After a bumpy start, the Bernardini colt trained by Wayne Catalano fought jockey Miguel Mena’s firm hold on the backstretch and had nothing left for the homestretch. His seventh-place finish at the Fair Grounds dropped his record to 1-for-5.

Red N Wild (400-1 Circa). Another Lecomte starter, another disappointment. Trainer Terry Eoff’s $9,000 Bayern colt looked out of his league dealing with Fair Grounds traffic, finishing last. That led Circa to drift him from opening odds of 250-1.

Following are the horses listed at Circa Sports and William Hill Nevada with their Kentucky Derby odds: 

Circa   WH

400-1 400-1 Advance Cash

150-1          Affable

  65-1          Alain Barows

300-1 150-1 Al Heybay

150-1          Alexander Valley

300-1 175-1 All Mo

250-1 150-1 Ambivalent

125-1          American Admiral

  20-1  40-1 Amount

300-1 200-1 Ampersand

250-1 150-1 Angkor

  75-1          Arabian Prince

300-1 250-1 Ascot Storm

250-1 150-1 Awesome Gerry

250-1          Baafeed

100-1          Barraza

300-1 250-1 Basso

400-1          Beatbox

200-1 150-1 Beep Beep

300-1 150-1 Belafonte

200-1 175-1 Big Daddy Dave

300-1 200-1 Big Flame

250-1          Big Thorn

300-1 200-1 Blue Gator

300-1 150-1 Bob’s Edge

300-1 120-1 Boca Boy

200-1 125-1 Bolden

400-1 140-1 Bold Minister

300-1 200-1 Boomer

175-1          Bracken

200-1 150-1 Breeze On By

110-1          Broadway

100-1  65-1 Brooklyn Strong

         125-1 By George

  30-1  25-1 Caddo River

200-1 150-1 Cajun Commander

200-1 100-1 Calibrate

300-1 175-1 Camp Hope

  80-1  75-1 Candy Man Rocket

  40-1  70-1 Capo Kane

200-1   75-1 Cazadero

300-1 125-1 Chicks For Free

400-1          Civil War

  50-1  25-1 Classier    

200-1 225-1 Cousin Larry

100-1          Cowan

400-1          Crazy Shot

400-1 200-1 Dalton

500-1          Dayoutoftheoffice

150-1          Defeater

300-1          Democrat

200-1  60-1 Donegal Bay

         125-1 Drain the Clock

125-1  50-1 Dr. Schivel

200-1          Dreamer’s Disease

125-1          Dream Shake

300-1          Drop Anchor

  60-1          Dynamic One

250-1          Dyn O Mite

200-1 120-1 Eagle Orb

225-1   75-1 Editor in Chief

600-1 100-1 Effinity

300-1          Engrave

750-1 350-1 Erawan

  12-1    7-1 Essential Quality

200-1 125-1 Ethical Judgement

200-1 125-1 Eucharist

         150-1 Excellent Timing

300-1 250-1 Famous Gent

300-1 150-1 Fauci

  60-1          Fenway

125-1          Find New Roads

200-1 100-1 Founder

150-1 120-1 Freedom Fighter

150-1 150-1 Fury Kap

200-1 150-1 Gagetown

300-1          Game Day Play

200-1 175-1 Garoppolo

200-1   75-1 Get Her Number

200-1          Ghazaaly

600-1          Girl Daddy

250-1 125-1 Girther

100-1          Golden Pal

  55-1  45-1 Greatest Honour

250-1          Hardly Swayed

300-1 150-1 Hendavid

600-1          Hendrick

500-1 250-1 Hercules

200-1 140-1 Herd Immunity

125-1 100-1 Hidden Stash

  50-1  40-1 Highly Motivated

600-1 200-1 Highway Bound

200-1 150-1 Hold the Salsa

250-1          Hopkins

275-1 200-1 Horn Of Plenty

  55-1  50-1 Hot Rod Charlie

  75-1  35-1 Hozier

200-1  75-1 Huntsinger

200-1 100-1 Hyperfocus

200-1 175-1 Inspector Frost

300-1 160-1 Isolate    

300-1 250-1 It Can Be Done

  45-1  40-1 Jackie’s Warrior

125-1  75-1 Jaxon Traveler

300-1          Joe Frazier

225-1 125-1 Judge N Jury

250-1          Kahuna Magic

  30-1  40-1 Keepmeinmind

200-1 150-1 Kenny Had a Notion

200-1 125-1 King Fury

200-1 125-1 Known Agenda

200-1 150-1 Kwist

125-1 125-1 Lamutanaatty

350-1          Lawlessness

           80-1 Lemon Pop

100-1          Lidstrom

  11-1    8-1 Life Is Good

300-1 130-1 Likeable

300-1 250-1 Lookin For Trouble

125-1          Lord Of War

300-1 150-1 Lugamo

  35-1  40-1 Mandaloun

200-1          Manor House

125-1          Martini Blu

  70-1  22-1 Medina Spirit

  60-1  50-1 Midnight Bourbon

300-1 250-1 Momos

150-1          Moonlite Strike

  75-1  50-1 Mutasaabeq

         200-1 My Man Bags

125-1          Never Surprised

125-1 125-1 Next

125-1 125-1 No Cents

300-1          North Pole

600-1          Notable Exception

600-1          Notary

150-1 150-1 Nova Rags

300-1          Number One Dude

  40-1  50-1 Olympiad

250-1          Oncoming Train

500-1          Original

225-1          Outadore

         150-1 Overtook

200-1          Papetu

200-1 100-1 Parnelli

225-1          Petruchio

250-1 175-1 Pickin’ Time

250-1          Pico d’Oro

300-1 125-1 Poppy’s Pride

350-1 250-1 Positivity

  30-1  35-1 Prate

125-1          Pregame

  15-1  22-1 Prime Factor

150-1 125-1 Prisoner

         250-1 Proud Contender

  65-1          Proxy

250-1 125-1 Quick Tempo

300-1 250-1 Raison d’Air

300-1 250-1 Real Talk

150-1   32-1 Red Flag

400-1          Red N Wild

350-1          Regular Guy

  75-1 100-1 Reinvestment Risk

150-1 150-1 Restored Order

150-1 125-1 Return the Ring

         125-1 Ricochet

150-1 120-1 Risk Taking

225-1          Rock Sugar

  35-1          Rock Your World

250-1 125-1 Roderick

           65-1 Roman Centurian

125-1 100-1 Rombauer

400-1          Rosenquist

225-1 150-1 Run Snappy

         200-1 Runway Magic

300-1 200-1 Saffa’s Day

200-1 125-1 Santa Cruiser

  85-1  50-1 Savile Row

200-1          Scarlet Fusion

200-1 125-1 Scarred

250-1 250-1 Schnell

300-1 225-1 Seazan

400-1 200-1 Seminole Beach

  45-1  40-1 Señor Buscador

125-1          Shackqueenking

250-1          Shaftesbury

200-1          Simovitch

100-1  85-1 Sittin On Go

500-1 125-1 Slashing

125-1  75-1 Smiley Sobotka

200-1 140-1 Sonic Brees

500-1 175-1 Son Of A Beast

200-1 140-1 Sound The Charge

100-1  65-1 Speaker’s Corner

  65-1  35-1 Spielberg

150-1 125-1 Starrininmydreams

225-1 125-1 Stayin’ Out Late

500-1 250-1 Superman Shaq

150-1 100-1 Super Stock

150-1 125-1 Swiftsure

200-1 130-1 Swill

250-1 175-1 Swot Analysis

300-1 250-1 Tacoflavoredkisses

100-1  90-1 Team Merchants

100-1  75-1 Ten For Ten

300-1          Tenor

         125-1 The Chosen Vron

  60-1          The Great One

175-1 100-1 Therideofalifetime

200-1 150-1 Thranduil

400-1 200-1 Tiz Handsome

500-1 300-1 Tiz Mandate

350-1          Touchdown Brown

250-1 140-1 Twilight Blue

250-1 250-1 Ultimate Badger

200-1 200-1 Uno

250-1 175-1 Upstriker

600-1 500-1 Valiant Thor

100-1 150-1 Va Va Vegas

500-1          Vequist

150-1  50-1 Vittorio

300-1 200-1 Waist Deep

         200-1 Warrior’s Pride

500-1 200-1 Waspirant

350-1 200-1 Weston

         125-1 Weyburn

200-1 200-1 What’s Up Surfer

  85-1 100-1 Whiskey Double

250-1 200-1 Willy Boi

125-1 100-1 Wipe the Slate

           75-1 Witsel

200-1 150-1 Work Out

300-1 200-1 Wyfire

300-1 175-1 Xtreme Mayhem

Top Stories

This time next week, we will have new names at or...
­ Maybe there will be more value next weekend in t...
In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Joh...
There were times last year when I thought Mystic G...
Beloved superstar Enable is in foal to Kingman , J...