Breeders' Cup Saturday Full Card Analysis

Flat Out captures the 2011 Suburban


Race 1-$100,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Sprint-7 furlongs

#3 Truly Marie’s only main track race with blinkers was a flashy maiden score at Del Mar in August. Based on how the track played Friday, she could be a good candidate to wire the field. #2 Switch to the Lead drops in distance and class after racing last in the Chandelier Stakes (G1) at 1 1/6 miles. Look for her to be running on late. #1 Bares Tripper could hang on for a piece in the short 5-horse field.

Race 2-$100,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint Preview-6 ½ furlongs Turf

Had #3 Snow King drawn into the BC Juvenile turf Friday, he would’ve been my top pick, so no need to shy away now. The downhill turf course could be tricky to navigate to a newcomer, but I think the 2-year-old son of Elusive Quality will just prove too tough in here. #10 Den’s Legacy ran a close second to BC Juvenile Turf hopeful Gervinho. A repeat of that effort will put him in the mix here. #7 Moulin de Mougin owns a win over the course and is bred to be even better over it, since his dam, Cambiocorsa, was “queen of the hill” about 10 years ago.

Race 3-$100,000 Damacus Stakes-7 Furlongs

#7 Sir Bond looks to sit a perfect stalking trip behind the early speed. His last 5 workout are spaced every 7 days apart, indicating this race has been targeted for awhile. #4 Mile High Magic’s only 7 furlong race was a disappointing 3rd in an allowance on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Since he hails from the Bob Baffert barn, he must be respected, but definitely not feared. #1 Brother Francis likes to hit the board in big races, but isn’t the most reliable win candidate.

Race 4-Grade 2 $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

#9 Noble Tune is undefeated in two career starts, and is proven on firm and soft going. He has shown a devastating turn of foot both times out, and the projected quick early pace today will set up his big late kick. #5 Fantastic Moon encountered a ton of trouble last out in the Juddemonte Royal Lodge at Newmarket, and can upset at a big price. #14 Lines of Battle invades for Aiden O’Brien off a series of consistent races. Though his post is not the best, look for him to improve with a move to two turns while adding blinkers.

Race 5-$1,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint- 7 furlongs

#3 Dust and Diamonds is the only speed in the race, and running on a speed-favoring track. She has never run 7 furlongs, but should be able to carry her speed without anyone hounding her early. #9 Groupie Doll is arguably the most talented sprinter in the country, but may have too much to do in the stretch. She can certainly win this, but is not worth even money or less. #10 Switch was runner-up in this the last 2 years, and must be included in vertical wagers.

Race 6-$1,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-1 Mile

#5 Fed Biz is the top pick in a wide-open race. This is a huge step up in class, but he is undefeated over the track and only needs to improve slightly 3rd off the layoff to land in the winner’s circle. #6 Shackleford has faced heavy pace pressure in the past and survived, but I’m worried that he is a better 1-turn horse. #4 John Scott is a fantastic longshot play for bettors looking to wheel a horse 2nd, 3rd & 4th in tris and supers.

Race 7-$1,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-6 ½ Furlongs Turf

Horses cutting back in the distance historically have an advantage going “down the hill.” #11 Corporate Jungle has been facing America’s toughest milers all year with moderate success. Tough to believe the Breeders’ Cup could be a drop in class, but that could be the case as many of these are of Grade 2 or 3 quality. #10 Mizdirection is a course specialist that is drawn favorable outside and has never been out of the exacta on the grass. She’s quick enough to be near the front, but can finish fast enough to hold off the closers. #14 Starspangledbanner was one of the world’s best turf sprinters in 2010, but an injury forced him to the sidelines until this summer. He’s racing into form and is first time Lasix for Aiden O’Brien.

Race 8-$2,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-1 1/16 Miles

In a race without too much pace, #1 Title Contender looks to steal this race just as Beholder did Friday in the Juvenile Fillies. #9 Power Broker is the other Bob Baffert entrant and rates a big chance as well. His last race was most impressive as he was wide throughout on an inside, speed-favoring track. #7 Capo Bastone was rallying widest into a slow pace last out when running 4th to Power Broker.  

Race 9-$3,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf-1 1/2 Miles Turf

Runner-up in the 2011 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, #5 Shareta loves the distance and does not mind taking on the boys. Last out in the Arc, Shareta was 5 wide the entire trip and got no cover. Expect her to lay mid-pack and close with a flourish into an expected quick pace. #3 St. Nicholas Abbey is the defending champion and has done nothing this year to think a repeat is not a possibility. #12 Trailblazer has been in California for months in preparation for this race. His 2nd last out in the Arroyo Seco Mile is a perfect stepping stone for this.

Race 10-$1,500,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint-6 furlongs

Trainer Bob Baffert is accustomed to winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint with runners coming off long layoffs, see Midnight Lute. #6 Fast Bullet comes into this off a year layoff, has been working up a storm and should lay off the speed of Sum of the Parts and Trinniberg. #8 Capital Account has been ultra-consistent all year, has a solid chance to win and must be included on all tickets. #10 Smiling Tiger’s 2 biggest speed figures have come off layoffs and they happen to be faster than anyone has run in this race. Something obviously was amiss this summer, so look for an improved effort off the layoff.

Race 11-$2,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile-1 Mile Turf

#6 Excelebration has only lost to Frankel, so he’s a logical contender, but this is a deep field and not the only player. #9 Moonlight Cloud had a ton of trouble when facing the top choice two races back, ran within a head of Black Caviar in June and has been pointed toward this race since September. #2 Wise Dan is another logical contender that must be respected after winning back-to-back Grade 1’s at this distance/surface.

Race 12-$5,000,000 Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic-1 1/4 Miles

Trainer Bill Mott will look to sweep the weekend’s biggest races two year’s running with #2 Flat Out in the Classic. Flat Out ran real fast last out (117 BRIS) and he’s a horse that improves 2nd off the layoff, like today. #4 Fort Larned should sit a perfect pocket trip behind the speed dual of Game on Dude, Handsome Mike and possibly To Honor and Serve. #8 Nonios is a 3-year-old on the rise that is bred for today distance. He’s been steadily working every 6 days and should improve off his last race, which was against the bias.


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Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire


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Older Comments about Breeders' Cup Saturday Full Card Analysis...

If Moonlight Cloud pulls this off, it will be trainer Freddie Head's 6th BC Mile as a jockey or trainer & all with fillies!
2:22.4 amazing, huge race for the 3yo POE too.
You're not the only one, Capper. Many will probably say the jocks of POE and SNA lost the race by underestimating Little Mike and not taking it to him earlier.
That really just happen? Little Mike just stuck it to me for the 3rd time in person this year.
hurray Mario!!!!!!
baby race; 4 Shanghai Bobby 9 Power Broker 8 Fortify 1 Title Contender
Rail Trip ran nice. I had the right idea, but no Tapizar on top.
Rail Trip! I like the spot he's coming from.
Looking for a little pace meltdown, going to try and get Rail Trip or John Scott into 2nd or 3rd.
Groupie Doll is a crazy 3/5 in a race with no pace on. Look for Dust & Diamonds to give her all she wants.
show plungers are on Groupie Doll
Hopping into action here with some pick 3's. Main play will be 2-3-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-13-14/3-9/5-6-7
Politicallycorrect rolls from off the pace to win the 3rd @santaanitapark after a hot pace dual set by Mile High Magic & Private Zone.
no logical choice in that one
Check that 9/2
The steam got the money as Gabriel Charles rolled in the 2nd at Santa Anita. 5/1 off a 20/1 ML.
psssssst Anita plays like that almost every day
In the 2nd, Gabriel Charles getting pounded down to 7/2 off 20-1 ML. Also, one of the favorites in DD too.
Unusual Way wires the first, track looks like it may play as it did yesterday.
Going the gate for the first, good luck to everyone today!

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