Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Projected field and odds

October 19, 2019 10:13am
It's been a short yet distinguished history for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Since its inaugural running in 2008, notable winners of this race have included 2014's Lady Eli, who would  go on to win the Eclipse Award as the champion older female turf horse in 2017; and Catch a Glimpse, who was awarded the 2015 Sovereign Award for Canadian Horse of the Year following her win in that year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf.

It remains to be seen if any future champions will be on display in this one-mile contest at Santa Anita on Nov. 1. 

Super Screener insight: European shippers have won this race just twice in its 11 runnings, but both of those victories came at Santa Anita, with those fillies possessing a sharp turn of foot and proven success routing prior to the championships. 
Click here for more secrets to winning on the Breeders’ Cup.

Below is a look at the prospective field with odds that will not balance given the field isn’t set, but instead reflect the type of price we expect each horse to go off at on race day.

Abscond, 12-1 [Blame -- Eddie Kenneally -- 3: 2-1 -- $162,875]: 
She won the Natalma Stakes (G1) at Woodbine when stretched out to a mile for her third start on Sept. 15. She was up-front contesting the lead throughout in that one and then dug in gamely in the stretch to narrowly prevail over Fair Maiden. This filly took a big step forward with that effort and could at least make an impact in the exotics here.

Albigna, 4-1 [Zoffany -- J. Harrington -- 4: 3-0-0 -- $356,456]: 
This European import could very well be your post-time favorite. She is already a multiple group stakes winner, and that includes a 2 ¼-length victory in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp (G1) going one mile on Oct. 6. That is the top race for 2-year-old fillies in France, and in the effort she also avenged a previous loss to Love in the Moyglare Stud (G1) at the Curragh.

Cambria, 10-1 [Speightstown -- Wesley Ward -- 3: 3-0-0 -- $331,700]: 
More likely for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, this filly has been perfect in three turf sprints to start her career, which includes a win in the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint most recently on Sept. 7. While the record glitters, there are a couple lingering questions. Her speed figures have been a cut below some in here and Ward has openly questioned whether she can excel around two turns. 

Crystalle, 8-1 [Palace Malice -- John Kimmel -- 3: 1-1-1 -- $105,800]: 
This filly won her first two starts, including the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga, but exits a three-quarter length loss to Selflessly in the 1 1/16-mile Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park on Sept. 29. A deep closer, the chart notes she was some nine-wide entering the stretch and rallied well. A solid pace up front and better racing luck could put this gal squarely in the mix.

Daahyeh, 5-1 [Bated Breath -- Roger Varian -- 5: 3-2-0 -- $247,232]: 
She sports a pair of group stakes wins in Europe, including the Rockfel Stakes (G2) at Newmarket on Sept. 27, and she just missed in the Moyglare Stud when beaten less than a length by Love. The chart notes indicates her preferred running style is to launch her bid from mid-pack. This filly has been mixing it up with the best of her generation across the pond and looms a big threat in this spot. 

Fair Maiden, 12-1 [Street Boss -- Eoin Harty -- 4: 2-1-1 -- $89,904]: 
This filly’s narrow loss to Abscond in the Natalma was the follow-up effort to her dominating 7 ½-length victory in the Catch a Glimpse at Woodbine on Aug. 17 for Godolphin. The Natalma was her first time going a route of ground. This gal figures to be forwardly placed as she’s shown good early pressing the pace in her last two starts. 

Jezebel’s Kitten, 20-1 [Kitten’s Joy -- Brad Cox -- 3: 2-0-0 -- $328,300]: 
She won the listed Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies going a flat mile in start No. 2, but was no match for Sweet Melania when weakening to fourth in the Jessamine Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on Oct. 9. It was not an encouraging effort, and this filly’s overall speed rating are a tad light compared to others in this field. She would be a surprise.

Living in the Past, 10-1 [Bungle Inthejungle -- K R Burke -- 5: 2-0-2 -- $187,643]: 
The overseas betting markets rate this filly as the fourth-choice among the European shippers. She won the Lowther Stakes (G2) at York in August in her third start, but could only split the field when beaten 4 ½-lengths in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket on Sept. 28. While this filly has never raced beyond six furlongs, she has kept good company and could be a threat for the exotics.   

Love, 9-2 [Galileo -- Aiden O’Brien -- 7: 3-1-2 -- N/A]: 
This is another filly that could vie for favoritism based off her victory in the seven-furlong Moyglare Stud at the Curragh, a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” contest. She has top connections in her corner and she did prevail over leading contender Daahyeh in the Moyglare. However, when subsequently stretched out to a flat mile in the Fillies Mile (G1) at Newmarket and could do no better than third. Still, she’s a proven Grade 1 filly who rates contender status here.

Powerful Breeze, 10-1 [Iffraaj -- Hugo Palmer -- 3: 2-1-0 -- $207,792]: 
This gal won the May Hill Stakes (G2) at Doncaster in her second start and came back to beat Love when finishing second in the Fillies Mile. Despite that solid resume, the overseas betting markets see this filly as a cut below some of the other European invaders. According to Equibase, Palmer has hit the board just once in seven starts in North America. 

Selflessly, 8-1 [More than Ready -- Chad Brown -- 2: 1-1-0 -- $128,000]: 
This filly just missed when sprinting on the grass on debut at Saratoga, then came right back to score over Crystalle in the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park when stretched out to a mile. She showed decent early speed in that one and figures to be forwardly placed within this group. 

Sharing, 20-1 [Speightstown -- Graham Motion -- 3: 2-0-1 -- $180,300]: 
After breaking her maiden in an off-the-turf event at Saratoga, this filly came right back to win the Selima Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Laurel Park on Sept. 21. She is another with good early speed who puts herself in the race. The big question with this one is, how good was that field really at Laurel? She was the heavy 1-2 favorite in that race.  

Sweet Melania, 6-1 [American Pharoah -- Todd Pletcher -- 5: 2-1-2 -- $204,000]: 
This filly could be the biggest hope among the North American-based horses. She was beaten just a neck by Crystalle when trying winners for the first time in the P. G Johnson, then came right back to score a front-running victory by 5 ½ lengths in the Jessamine Stakes. While she drew off like a good thing that day, she was on an easy lead clicked through moderate fractions. Still, she’s been well-fancied in the overseas betting markets and looms a big threat on the front-end.   

Tango, 12-1 [No Nay Never -- Aiden O’Brien -- 8: 2-1-0 -- $73,572]: 
O’Brien made the decision to ship this filly stateside following a big six-length victory in the Legacy Stakes at the Curragh on Oct. 13. She is certainly battle tested relative to this group, as she’s made eight starts since debuting in May. The concern with this gal is she has been well-beaten in both previous Group 1 tries. 

Warren’s Showtime, 30-1 [Clubhouse Ride -- Craig Lewis -- 4: 2-0-1 -- $104,271]: 
This California-bred shook things up considerably when winning the Surfer Girl Stakes at 35-1 going a flat mile at Santa Anita Oct. 6. Prior to that effort, she won a restricted maiden race Del Mar and was eighth in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. While that Surfer Gal win earned a decent speed rating for this group, and she obviously likes the course, this will be a drastic step up in class. Lewis is still debating whether to take a shot. 

Walk in Marrakesh, 25-1 [Siyouni -- Mark Johnston -- 5: 3-1-1 -- $49,518]: 
This filly is a three-time winner at short odds at some of the lower-profile tracks in England, but when trying group stakes company she could muster only a third in the Prix du Calvodas (G2) at Deauville in August. She is another one that will be facing a major class test. The European wagering market have her rated as a decided outsider. 

Yesterdayoncemore, 30-1 [No Nay Never -- James Stack -- 7: 1-2-0 -- $70,226]: 
While she was no match for group stakes company in Europe, she shipped to North America and was a prompt winner of the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Fillies. The downside is she backed up that effort with a disappointing sixth as the heavy favorite in the Surfer Girl. Perhaps she can bounce-back, but it’s still hard to make much of a case for this filly against this deep group.

 

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