Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 2019: Projected field and odds

October 18, 2019 10:00am
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 2019: Projected field and odds
Photo: Joe Labozzetta/NYRA

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf will begin its mile and a quarter run on the lower part of Santa Anita Park’s downhill chute, cross over the main track, and then make a full circuit of the seven-furlong turf course.

Sistercharlie will be a formidable favorite Nov. 2 as she tries to become the first horse to win this event two years in a row. The European runner Ouija Board is the only horse to win it twice overall, in 2004 and 2006.

If Sistercharlie succeeds, it will also give trainer Chad Brown his fifth victory and jockey John Velazquez his fourth in the Filly & Mare Turf first run in 1999.

For most American handicappers, it is difficult to evaluate the quality of European stakes races. It is best to follow the Group 1, 2, and 3 ratings as well as looking for races run at the top-level tracks: Ascot, Goodwood, Newmarket, and York in Great Britain; Chantilly, Deauville, and Longchamp in France; plus the Curragh and Leopardstown in Ireland.

Super Screener tip: According to Horse Racing Nation’s handicapping system, closers have won just two of the last six runnings at Santa Anita. “Instead, a presser/off-the-pace type is much preferred, even from the Chad Brown barn despite the fact that his best fillies and mares show an incredible turn of foot. At Santa Anita, his charges are more forwardly-placed than they would be on other, more closer-friendly, turf courses.” Click here for more secrets to winning on the Breeders’ Cup.

Below is a look at the prospective field with odds that will not balance given the field isn’t set, but instead reflect the type of price we expect each horse to go off at on race day.

Castle Lady
(IRE) [15-1 – Shamardal – Henri-Alex Pantali – 5: 3-1-0 - $497,431] This 3-year-old won a Group 3 in April and a Group 1 in May at Longchamp followed by a fifth in the Coronation (G1) at Royal Ascot. Off a four-month layoff, she shipped to Keeneland and received Lasix for the first time before running second, a length behind Cambier Parc, in last Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1).

Deirdre (JPN) [6-1 – Harbinger (GB) –
Mitsuru Hashida – 26: 8-4-3 - $4,747,845] The 6-year-old from Japan would sport the highest career earnings in the field helped by the hefty purses in Asia. She won the Nassau Stakes (G1) at Goodwood in August and was fourth against male runners in the Champion Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown in September. Most of her recent races were against the boys, and she’s in again at Ascot this weekend.

Fanny Logan
(IRE) [12-1 – Sea the Stars (IRE) – John Gosden – 8: 5-1-1 - $165,647] Until her recent win in the Darley Pride Stakes (G3) at Newmarket, this 3-year-old had no significant victories to her credit. She did earn a couple of minor stakes wins at the lower-echelon tracks in England. She’ll be respected, however, as a member of the John Gosden barn.

Fleeting
[10-1 – Zoffany (IRE) – Aidan O’Brien – 11: 2-3-2 - $460,730] Aidan O’ Brien, who surprisingly has never won this race, trains this 3-year-old whose last two starts came at Longchamp and include a narrow loss in the Prix de L’Opera (G1). In August, she shipped over to Arlington Park and ran fourth in the Beverly D behind Sistercharlie. She’s expected to be in action this weekend at Ascot before a Breeders’ Cup decision’s made.

Iridessa
(IRE) [7-2 – Ruler of the World – Joseph O’Brien– 11: 4-0-3 - $887,879] This 3-year-old secured a “Win and You’re In” spot into the field with her victory in the Matron Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown in September. She also won the Pretty Polly (G1) at the Curragh in June. Trained by a former Breeders’ Cup-winning jockey, she finished third in her most recent Group 1 start at Newmarket in October.

Mirth
[20-1 – Colonel John – Phil D’Amato – 16: 5-4-2 - $315,563] This 4-year-old filly had a breakthrough victory in the Rodeo Drive (G1) at Santa Anita that gave her not only a first stakes win, but a Grade 1 score and a “Win and You’re In” spot in the field. As a longshot here, her strategy may be to try and win the race on the front end.

Mrs. Sippy
[6-1 – Blame – Graham Motion – 11: 3-3-0 - $322,671] This American-bred 4-year-old filly began her career racing in Europe and recorded a win at Longchamp and a second in a Group 3 at Newmarket last year. She then arrived to the Motion barn and won the Glens Falls (G2) at Saratoga while racing with Lasix for the first time. Most recently, she was second to Sistercharlie in the Flower Bowl (G1).

Silva
(IRE) [20-1 – Kodiak (GB) – Pia Brandt – 8: 3-0-0 - $221,335] Based in France, the 3-year-old became a Group 3 winner when she won the Prix Bertrand de Tarragon at Longchamp in her most recent start last month. Brandt has had one prior Breeders’ Cup runner.

Sistercharlie
(IRE) [9-5 – Myboycharlie (IRE) – Chad Brown – 14: 10-3-0 - $3,481,854] Most American runners in the Breeders’ Cup turf races have to answer a question of class by taking on the Europeans. Sistercharlie has already emphatically answered that, both when racing in Europe and when winning last year’s Filly & Mare Turf. Two of her Grade 1 victories this year were in the Beverly D and the Flower Bowl, both Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races.

Vasilika
[8-1 – Skipshot – Jerry Hollerdorfer – 35: 18-4-5 - $1,542,595] The big question still remains about whether trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will be allowed to race in the Breeders’ Cup following his ban by the host track Santa Anita Park. This former claimer is a force to be reckoned with at the California track, where she has a career record of 12: 11-1-0. Most recently, she travelled cross-country to run third at Keeneland in the First Lady (G1).

Villa Marina
(GB) [10-1 – LeHavre (IRE) – Carlos Laffon-Parias – 8: 3-2-2 - $433,031] Villa Marina secured a “Win and You’re In” spot in the field after her victory in the Prix de L’Opera (G1) at Longchamp this month. She also has a win at Deauville in a Group 3. Trainer Laffon-Parias has had only two Breeders’ Cup starters. 

Also p
ossible: Beau Recall (IRE), Billesdon Brook (GB), Durance (GER), Edisa, Silva, Star Catcher, Thais (FR), Veracious. 

 

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