Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 2019: Projected field and odds

October 21, 2019 10:29am
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 2019: Projected field and odds
Photo: Benoit

The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, first run in 2007, will go in a two-turn configuration at Santa Anita Park when it renews on Nov. 2.

Pending a decision by the Mitole camp — he has a “Win and You’re In” for this race, but appears bound for the Sprint going six furlongs — the prospective field is shaping up as displayed below.

Super Screener insight: One-turn specialists who have shown no success around two should be avoided, while routers cutting back, specifically 3-year-olds exiting a race like the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), are regular board hitters. Click here for more secrets to winning on the Breeders’ Cup.

Odds here will not balance given the field isn’t set, but instead reflect the type of price we expect each horse to go off at on race day.

Coal Front
[6-1 – Stay Thirsty – Todd Pletcher – 12: 8-0-1 - $1,815,280] Coal Front has had what I would describe as a sneaky good career. Without knowing, I’d never guess that he’d show a record of eight wins in 12 starts with graded stakes wins at five different tracks, including a trip at Dubai earlier this season. He is lacking a Grade 1 victory, but he has won around two turns in the Razorback Handicap (G3).

Diamond Oops
[10-1 – Lookin At Lucky – Patrick Biancone – 10: 4-2-1 - $575,110] The majority of this gelding’s races were run on the dirt, but most recently he finished second in a large and competitive Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) flight at Keeneland, where he set the pace for most of the race. Before that, he was second in the Vanderbilt (G1) behind Imperial Hint and won the Smile Sprint (G3) at Gulfstream Park. Combine that two-turn effort on the Keeneland turf with his dirt sprint success, and perhaps you have a Dirt Mile contender.

Firenze Fire
[20-1 – Poseidon’s Warrior – Jason Servis – 20: 7-3-2 - $1,457,600] His career statistics at the mile distance are 6: 3-1-1 and those three victories came in a Grade 1, a Grade 3 and a listed stakes. There is a caveat, however, as those were all one-turn miles. Last year, the Jason Servis runner tried the Dirt Mile around one turn at Churchill Downs and still ran fourth. At Santa Anita, he just seems to be better suited for sprinting. 

Giant Expectations
[8-1 – Frost Giant – Peter Eurton – 22: 4-5-4 - $1,336,600] This 6-year-old New York-bred lives on the west coast in the barn of Santa Anita-based trainer Peter Eurton. It must be noted that Giant Expectations has not won a race since beating Accelerate in the 2017 San Antonio (G2) at Del Mar. Mostly recently he battled head-to-head with Catalina Cruiser in the Pat O’Brien.

Improbable
[10-1 – City Zip – Bob Baffert – 9: 4-2-0 - $889,520] This 3-year-old has been a real in-and-outer for Bob Baffert, and his last two races are perfect examples. Two back, he was the convincing winner of the Shared Belief at Del Mar and then was a non-threatening fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) after some often occurring gate issues arose again and he missed the break. The Dirt Mile will mark his first start against older horses. 

Mr Freeze
[20-1 – To Honor and Serve – Dale Romans – 8: 4-2-0 - $542,710] As a 3-year-old last season, he won the West Virginia Derby (G3) for trainer Dale Romans by open lengths. This year he has three starts, which include a victory in the recent Ack Ack (G3) going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. That was an encouraging performance and was certainly enough for Romans to warrant Dirt Mile consideration.

Mr. Money
[9-2 – Goldencents – Bret Calhoun – 11: 5-3-0 - $1,277,220] Most don’t remember that Mr. Money ran in the Breeders’ Cup last year, finishing fourth in the Juvenile with only a maiden win to his credit. Yet, he has been a later developing 3-year-old. It all began in the Pat Day Mile (G3) on Kentucky Derby Day when his four-race winning streak began. The run ended at Parx after the headstrong colt got stuck on the lead without a chance to relax and lost by a neck. His sire, Goldencents, won this race two years in a row. Trainer Bret Calhoun seems to have given his horse his best chance to win with this race choice.

Omaha Beach
[2-1 – War Front – Richard Mandella – 8: 4-3-1 -$1,301,800] Trainer Richard Mandella reversed course a bit when he chose the Dirt Mile for Omaha Beach. Two turns in the Breeders’ Cup fits the son of War Front best, and they will get him ready for a short campaign to end 2019. Mandella knows how to pick that right spots for his horses considering he won four Breeders’ Cup races in one afternoon back in 2003. Now, Omaha Beach will most likely go in the gate as the Dirt Mile favorite after a come-backing win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1).

Also p
ossible: Ambassadorial, Blue Chipper, Gray Magician, Hog Creek Hustle, Mitole, Snapper Sinclair, Trais Fluors (GB).

 

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