Blue Grass 2020 Odds and Analysis

Blue Grass 2020 Odds and Analysis

Saturday's $600,000 Blue Grass (G2) offers 170 qualifying points toward this year’s Kentucky Derby with 100 points going to the winner, 40 to the runner-up, 20 to third place and 10 points to fourth. The Blue Grass will go as the ninth race on Saturday’s 10-race program with a 5:30 p.m. ET post time. 

RELATED - Blue Grass stakes Free PPs

The 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver is the 3-1 favorite against the boys, and by post time her odds could go much lower than that.  But there's several in here with improving resumes and a chance to upset, so let's go into the field one by one: 



Shivaree [Ralph Nicks, 11 3-3-2, $344,005]

Speed type was second to Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby, and last out fought start to finish with Ete Indien and put that one away before running out of gas in late stretch to Sole Volante, in what was a deceptively impressive race.  Ultra-consistent, followed up a three-race win streak with three seconds and a third, so on the board in seven straight.  Great post and could secure the lead if they don't send the filly.  Exacta contender



Finnick the Fierce [Rey Hernandez, 8 2-1-2, $189,790]

Mid-pack runner has fired some good races, and has been knocking on the door at this level for some time now.  Things were working against him last time in a four-horse field with no pace, so don't hold that against him. Gets a good post and a possible a good pace to run into, real possibility for 2nd/3rd.  Keeps getting better and fired a very impressive workout going 46 1/5 at Keeneland on July 4, the fastest of 90 works. Use in third, fourth



Art Collector [Tom Drury, Jr., 7 3-1-1, $188,475]

Stalking type rides a three-race win streak and may be an underlay given the big speed figure last time which was earned wiring a four-horse field on a slow pace, so some skepticism is warranted. He's improving rapidly and it's hard to say how good he is and this is the test, I'd just rather get 8-1 or higher in this field. Win contender



Mr. Big News [Bret Calhoun, 6 2-1-2, $167,053]

Deep closer is another improving type closed with a fury to take the Oaklawn Stakes in the slop on April 11.  But that race was 91 days ago, and he's been working great.  Three-year-olds can improve so much this time of year, it's hard to say when he stops improving.  Given that his win was in the slop, he could get forgotten here.  If he goes off at 20-1 or even 30-1, this is a horse to key in 3rd and 4th in Tris and Supers, and he could even crack the exacta. Use in bottom of trifectas, superfectas at a price



Man in the Can [Ron Moquett, 5 4-0-0, $212,325]

Likely pace presser on Saturday, it's hard to knock a horse that's won 80% of his starts and comes in winning three in a row.  That being said, after Swiss Skydiver this race is incredibly deep, his two stakes wins were against weaker Arkansas-bred competition and his figures are a little light.  Again, improving colt is working great and not without a chance.  I probably wouldn't touch him at 12-1 but at 25-1 he's a must use in trifectas. Usable in trifecta



Hard Lighting [Alexis Delgado, 4 1-1-0, $31,660]

Closer only owns a maiden win in the slop and looks to have no chance here.  Customarily ML's don't often go higher than 50-1, so that's being nice as he will probably be 90-1 on race day. No chance



Swiss Skydiver [Kenny McPeek, 7 4-1-1, $538,580]

Pace runner has been nothing but impressive in her last three starts, but I'm skeptical enough that I can't take low odds in this field.  At Santa Anita last time and at Gulfstream three back, she got easy leads, something that's unlikely to happen on Saturday. The Fantasy at Oaklawn was impressive, but she's likely to see challenges from the inside (Shivaree), outside (Basin) and from behind (several).  Anticipating odds much lower than 3-1, she seems like a play against here. The one to beat, but play against.



Basin [Steve Asmussen, 6 2-2-1, $471,000]

Has pressed the pace in his last three with the unfortunate job of pressing Baffert bullets Charlatan and Nadal from the outside, and moved into a wicked-fast pace in the slop in the Oaklawn Stakes.  Have a feeling Santana and Asmussen may put him close to lead here and while he's been a fighter chasing hot paces, he could be tough if he works out a trip near the lead in only an above-average pace this time.  Thinking he's more of a threat for second and third. Use in trifecta



Attachment Rate [Dale Romans, 6 1-2-1, $93,182]

Pace presser suffered some wide trips in last two, but there are legitimately 6-7 in here that have run faster speed figures so he will be largely ignored for that reason plus his only win was a maiden in the slop at Gulfstream.  But horses out of the Matt Winn have been running well, he's working well and not without a chance, just don't love this setup here.  Can hit the board if if they can somehow work out a good trip from post 9, he could hit the board. Could run third or fourth.



Rushie [Michael McCarthy, 5 2-1-1, $129,351]

Pace presser ran a strong third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Honor A.P. (who would be the second choice in the Kentucky Derby if it were run today) and Authentic. He's improving rapidly, working great, has a recency edge on many of these and his last out BRIS speed figure of 103 is tied for best in the field with Art Collector. The pick



Hunt the Front [Nick Zito, 7 1-3-1, $94,992]

Deep closer has almost nothing to recommend.  Finished 11 1/4 lengths behind Man in the Can last time out.  Owns a good workout, that's about it.  Should be 50-1. Toss


Enforceable [Mark Casse, 9 2-2-2, $367,150]

Deep closer has been stuck with wide trips and average paces to close into. He's the best closer in this race, he's been off nearly four months and he's working tremendously.  If the time off yields improvement, this is going to be horse to be reckoned with this fall.  Not only is he by Tapit and out of the graded stakes winner Justwhistledixie, but he's a half to three graded stakes winners in BC Juvenile winner New Year's Day, Fountain of Youth winner Mohaymen and G3 winner Kingly. Use in 3rd/4th, and watch to bet next time.



Tiesto [Bill Mott, 4 1-1-1, $78,150]

A closer on the turf, he finished 2nd in the G3 Palm Beach on the Gulfstream turf two back.  Has many thing against him including no dirt experience, a bad post, slow speed figures and he'd probably need a hot pace.  That being said, he should be every bit of 30-1, and when playing big longshots you only a few reasons for the upside, which are: a Hall of Fame trainer that's hot right now, he's bred for dirt (by Tiznow) and a half to graded stakes winner Promises Fulfilled.  It makes sense for the connections to take a shot, but for bettors this race is so deep it probably doesn't make sense to go fishing for longshots when there are plenty of other longshots with great dirt resumes. Asking for a lot here.  Toss.

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