Since the qualifying points system began in 2013, an individual betting interest from the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 has won the Derby every year.
Smile Happy and White Abarrio were named the 8-1 favorites among the individual betting interests in Pool 3 for 2022. Smile Happy, a son of Runhappy who won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last year, was the 8-1 favorite in both Pool 1 and 2 at the end of wagering. White Abarrio was the winner of the recent Holy Bull (G3) and had odds of 171-1 at the close of Pool 2.
As part of Pool 3 this year, there are 15 horses that carry over from Pool 2 and eight new individual interests. Among the new horses are Lecomte (G3) winner Call Me Midnight, Withers (G3) winner Early Voting, San Vicente (G2) winner Forbidden Kingdom, Grey Stakes (G3) winner God of Love and Street Sense winner Howling Time.
Since 2013, only four horses that were new to the Future Wager in Pool 3 went on to win the Run for the Roses: Orb in 2013 (paid $26.20 in Pool 3 and $12.80 on track), Always Dreaming in 2017 ($86.40, $11.40), Justify in 2018 ($14.40, $7.80), and Country House in 2019 ($61.00, $132.40).
• Since 2013, an individual betting interest from Pool 3 has won the Kentucky Derby every year. Pool 3 payouts have ranged from $14.40 on Justify in 2018 to $86.40 on Always Dreaming in 2017.
• New Pool 3 horses are trending downward. In four of the last nine years – that’s 44 percent of the time – a horse new to Pool 3 has won on the first Saturday in May. After three of those new Pool 3 horses won in consecutive years from 2017 to 2019, that trend shifted when Authentic and Medina Spirit were victorious in the last two years.
Here are all eight of the new individual betting interests for this year with their morning-line odds:
1. Barber Road (20-1)
2. Call Me Midnight (20-1)
6. Early Voting (12-1)
9. Forbidden Kingdom (10-1)
10. God of Love (50-1)
11. Happy Boy Rocket (50-1)
12. Howling Time (50-1)
13. In Due Time (30-1)
• Pool 3 has been the place to find a Derby winner, and the payouts have been good. Consider these six 3-year-olds from Pool 3 for a future wager to win the Run for the Roses. Five of them have generous odds on the morning line.
4. Classic Causeway (30-1) flashed talent as a 2-year-old, being stakes-placed twice, and he is expected to make his 2022 debut in the Sam F. Davis on Saturday.
14. Major General (50-1) won both starts last year for Todd Pletcher and is back in serious training.
16. Mo Donegal (30-1) will have inflated odds after his third-place finish in the Holy Bull.
20. Slow Down Andy (20-1) was flattered by the victory of Messier last weekend since he beat Messier earlier in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He is expected to run in the Risen Star (G2) for two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’Neill.
21. Smile Happy (8-1) is likely to be the favorite again in Pool 3.
23. Zandon (30-1) has a chance to give Chad Brown his first Derby victory.
• Wait to wager until Saturday night. Remember that KDFW Pool 3 betting opens on Friday at noon EST and closes on Sunday at 6 p.m. Please wait at least until the two Derby preps are run on Saturday before you bet. You can watch the live odds for both wagers at KentuckyDerby.com.