Betting the 2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

Betting the 2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2
Photo: Amanda Hodges Weir / Hodges Photography

Wagering for the 2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 closes Sunday at 6 p.m., and horses from Pool 2 dominated the Run for Roses last year.

Medina Spirit and Mandaloun finished first and second in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, and they both made their first appearance in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager last year in Pool 2. Although the results are still in dispute, the wagering payouts are official with horses from Pool 2 sweeping the exacta, trifecta and superfecta.

[Derby Future Wager: 2 horses are attracting a lot of money]

Since the qualifying points system was instituted in 2013, five horses from Pool 2 went on to win the Run for the Roses. In 2014 California Chrome paid (pool 2, $63.40; on track, $7.00), American Pharoah in 2015 ($23.00, $7.80), Nyquist in 2016 ($17.80, $6.60), Authentic in 2020 ($32.20, $19.60) and Medina Spirit last year, at least for pari-mutuel purposes ($51.40, $26.20).

Nine horses were added to Pool 2 this year – Chasing Time, Courvoisier, Dash Attack, Emmanuel, High Oak, Make It Big, Simplification, Slow Down Andy and White Abarrio.

In the qualifying points era, Medina Spirit joined California Chrome to become the second horse added to the KDFW in Pool 2 to ever win the Kentucky Derby.

In Pool 2, five trainers have more than one horse among the 23 individual betting interests. Todd Pletcher leads the way with five, Kenny McPeek has four, and Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown and Saffie Joseph Jr. have two each.

As was the case in Pool 1, horses trained by Bob Baffert or any trainer suspended by Churchill Downs are not considered as individual betting interests.

Let’s take a look at how the Pool 2 horses from the Future Wager performed in the Kentucky Derby for the last nine years.

2021. When Medina Spirit and Mandaloun finished first and second, it became the second year in a row that Pool 2 horses took down the Kentucky Derby exacta. The Pool 2 exacta paid $3,254.40 while on track it paid $503.60. Seven Pool 2 individual interests made it the Derby field, and they swept the top four spots and six of the top 7.

2020. Six horses from Pool 2 were in the Derby field. They all finished among the top seven and were led by the win and place horses, Authentic and Tiz the Law. The Pool 2 exacta paid $205.60, compared with the on-track price of $41.00.

2019. Seven horses from Pool 2 made it to the race, with Tacitus finishing third. There were 12 new betting interests added, and four of them made it into the gate. The Future Wager exacta included the No. 24, “All Other 3-year-olds,” because the eventual winner Country House did not appear until Pool 3.

2018. Again, the Future exacta included the field because Triple Crown winner Justify did not show up until Pool 3. In total, 10 horses from Pool 2 were in the Derby, including the second-, third- and fourth-place finishers. Six new betting possibilities were added, and the third-place Audible was one of them.

2017. The Derby winner Always Dreaming was yet another one who made his Future Wager debut in Pool 3 and that means that the exacta from Pool 2 used the All Other 3-year-olds interest. Nine from Pool 2 made it to the first Saturday in May, with Lookin At Lee getting a place finish. From the 10 betting interests added to Pool 2, only the 12th place horse was in the Derby.

2016. Pool 2 betting interests swept the top four spots in Derby, led by the 2-year-old champion Nyquist, and half the field came from Pool 2. Thirteen horses were added to Pool 2, but only three of them made it to the race.

2015. Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was one of 10 Pool 2 betting interests to make it to the Derby field. The nine horses added to Pool 2 included Firing Line, who finished second and completed a Pool 2 exacta that did not include the field.

2014. Derby winner California Chrome was one of 14 individual interests added, with seven of them being the only horses to make their way into the starting gate from Pool 2. The KDFW exacta was completed with a field horse and paid $358.60.

2013. Orb was yet another Derby winner who did not show up in the Future Wager until Pool 3, which means that once again the field was part of the exacta.

Here are the handicapping takeaways for the 2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2.

• If you believe that somehow Bob Baffert, or at least horses currently trained by him, will be able to run in this year’s Kentucky Derby, the only option currently available in the KDFW is the #24 – mutuel field option. The field can be bet to win or in exactas.

• The average number of horses from Pool 2 that made it to the Kentucky Derby field since 2013 was 8.25, with a range of 6 to 10. Over that same period of nine years, five horses from Pool 2 won the Derby.

• Look for individual betting interests from Pool 2 to sweep the Kentucky Derby exacta. Since 2015, the Derby exacta had two horses from Pool 2 four times, including the past two years when the KDFW exacta of Medina Spirit and Mandaloun paid $3,254.40 and Authentic with Tiz the Law returned $205.60.

• Epicenter (15-1), Pappacap (20-1) and Trafalgar (50-1) will come with extra information because they are entered to run in the Lecomte (G3) on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

• Recent Kentucky Derby results show that Pool 2 horses are worth using to win and in exactas with or without the mutuel field. Top choices to play are Epicenter (15-1), Major General (50-1), Simplification (30-1), Smile Happy (8-1) and Zandon (12-1).

Wagering for Pool 2 concludes Sunday at 6 p.m. EST.

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