What the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby lacks in top Kentucky Derby contenders, it makes up for as a competitive matchup of horses who have prepped in three jurisdictions.
I am not a big class handicapper, but Rocket Can's win in the Holy Bull (G3) coupled with a runner-up finish to champion and current Kentucky Derby favorite Forte has me thinking he has the measure of the 10 others entered for this 1 1/8-mile race Saturday at Oaklawn.
His chief competition comes in the form of Rebel (G2) third- and second-place finishers Reincarnate and Red Route One, respectively, and Risen Star (G2) winner Angel of Empire. Throw in recent local allowance winner Two Eagles River, and the Arkansas Derby has the potential to be an excellent barometer of where the top talent lies behind Forte East of the Rockies.
The Arkansas Derby has the look of a fair race. There is speed, there are closers, and no entrant appears post-compromised.
Bill Mott trains Rocket Can for Arkansas-based Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. Since stretching out to two turns, the Into Mischief colt has won two of four races while showing ability to sit close to any kind of pace. I expect a similar trip under Junior Alvarado, and given the favorable speed ratings Rocket Can possesses, he is my most likely winner.
Reincarnate was completely out of his element last time when ninth of 11 early, but he still sustained a nice middle move to be third in the slop. And yes, Red Route One, who I have as a less likely winner than Reincarnate, was back even further early and further ahead at the finish. But his best races have come on slop, so I give the fast-track edge to Reincarnate, especially given I do not expect him to be so far back here.
For more on the Arkansas and Florida derbies as well as thoughts on the Kentucky Derby picture going into this penultimate weekend of 100-points-to-the-winners prep races, watch the video below with Paddock Prince.
