Analysis: How to bet the 2018 Cotillion Stakes

September 21, 2018 12:20pm

Saturday's Cotillion Stakes features strong morning line favorite Monomoy Girl, but there are at least a couple of viable alternatives if the chalk stubs her toe. Before choosing how to bet the 10th at Parx Racing, one race before the featured Pennsylvania Derby, let's analyze the field:

The Favorite

#2 Monomoy Girl (3-5) is a perfect 5-for-5 in the graded ranks this year (2-for-2 at this distance), and her only loss in nine career starts was a neck defeat as a juvenile in the Golden Rod (G2). She is versatile and clearly has a nose for the wire, but she does not dominate on numbers and won’t offer any value. 

Value Win Contenders

#4 Wonder Gadot (6-1) chased and retreated to last in the Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug 25. She is back with sophomore filly friends, and she was only a half length behind Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks. She reconnects with winning rider John Velazquez. 


#7 Midnight Bisou (5-1) clearly has distance limitations as shown in the Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama, all Grade 1 races. But she still managed to hit the board in those three longer events. She is 3-for-3 at this distance, and if she is ever going to beat Monomoy Girl, this is the spot. 


Live Longshots

#5 Separationofpowers (10-1) won the Frizette (G1) as a juvenile (one turn mile), and she got back on the beam in the Test (G1) at Saratoga Aug 4. She has yet to run two alike after six lifetime starts, and 10-1 is not a bad price for a top-level winner for the profitable Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown team. She should be in the hunt throughout. Distance might be her biggest hurdle.


#6 Chocolate Martini (12-1) has been an excellent $30,000 claim for Tom Amoss. In her last four stakes starts, she won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), finished fifth of 14 in the Kentucky Oaks, and landed the show in the Summertime Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks. A win is probably a bit out of her reach, but she could definitely land a piece of this.

Remaining Entrants

#1 Norma’s Charm (20-1) is a 1-for-17 filly stretching out in distance. Her lone win was at Parx but she is overmatched on paper. 


#3 Jump Ruler (20-1) ran off the screen in a flat mile entry level win at Monmouth on July 7. She figures to impact the pace in this much tougher spot. 


#8 Dixie Serenade (15-1) fired exacta shots in 8 of 9 local outings. She got a dream setup in her Victory Ride (G3) upset at 47-1 on July 8, and she just missed in a local stakes event on Aug 4. The late running sprinter gets a distance and class test today. 


Wagering Strategies

#7 to win

Exacta 4-5-7/2

Trifecta 2-4-5-7/2-4-5-7/6 

 

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