This year's Grade 1 Acorn Stakes on Friday at Belmont Park is one of the most challenging handicapping puzzles I can remember.
No. 5 Munnys Gold stretches out to 1 1/16 miles after suffering her first career defeat when second at 2-5 in the Eight Belles (G2) on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill Downs. No. 6 Pretty Mischievous cuts back to a one-turn 1 1/16 miles after winning the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on May 5.
From a most-likely-winner standpoint, I give a very slight edge to Munnys Gold, as every race other than the Eight Belles defeat wins the Acorn. Obviously, it is not as easy as saying she can run back to those races given the step back the Eight Belles was, and that was on a 41-day layoff whereas this is just 35 days.
Still, she is going to be on the front end, and she gets 5 pounds from Pretty Mischievous. Plus Pretty Mischievous had a fast pace to close into in the Oaks but logged a Brisnet Late Pace Rating of 85, which is slower than any of the LP ratings Munnys Gold ever has run.
But here's the rub when it comes to gambling on horses: Acknowledging that Munnys Gold and Pretty Mischievous have a 53.5 percent chance of winning between them does not mean that either of them is the play. Of the two, I think Pretty Mischievous is more likely to offer value, but I think the most likely scenario is that neither does.
So, who will?
No. 2 Randomized might get overlooked for her stablemate No. 8 Accede but is nearly equal, and I think she's the most likely to get first run on Munnys Gold. No. 7 Goodgirl Badhabits has done nothing wrong, but Ragozin Sheet-wise, she's a touch below the four I already mentioned, and I have the most concern with her breeding for this trip. Any of the other three would surprise me.
