I understand why Zozos will be the favorite in the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but I don’t understand why he should take so much money.
The Brad Cox trainee is the 6-5 morning-line favorite for the one-turn race that is a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile around two turns Nov. 4 at Santa Anita. His pace advantage makes him formidable against this group, but the next two most likely winners on my fair odds will be attacking both early and late.
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Based on the morning line, Skyro is likely to offer the most value, and he will get first run on Zozos. He has done most of his work on synthetic or turf, but his last foray on dirt was a win at this track and distance. Of course that was more than a year ago, and he has been off since January, but at 10-1 on the morning line, the price is right.
O Besos will be coming late, picking back up leading rider Tyler Gaffalione. His effort last out in a stakes at Ellis Park was a lifetime best via Ragozin Sheets, and trainer Greg Foley has freshened this one for 10 weeks. A repeat of his last makes him dangerous here.
The underlay of the race is likely Three Technique, who is 3-1 on the morning line and has about half that chance to win based on my 7-1 fair odds. He’ll get a similar trip as O Besos, who I just prefer on the rider change.
From a wagering standpoint, I expect Skyro to be the win-bet play and a vertical key. In horizontals I’d want to use both O Besos and Skyro, as neither will be favored.
One last point regarding this race’s namesake. Ack Ack is one of the most underrated stars of the American turf, and it’s a shame his sire line is dying or dead.
