A vegan-friendly Bailout Special pick for Wednesday at Keeneland

October 15, 2019 06:37pm
Keeneland Grandstand 615 X 400
Photo: Mary Cage
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my Bailout Special which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.

Had a bad day at the track? Use the Bailout Special to get some of that money back.

Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the Bailout Special.

Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the Bailout Special.

The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.”

My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds.

Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes.

Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes.

But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play.

For the first weekend of this fall meet my selections finished second, second and first from Thursday through Sunday. On opening day, I actually chose an also-eligible that made it into the race; my other choice won it.

So far, in eight Keeneland finale races, the Bailout Special hasn’t been bailing anyone out much, going 8: 2-4-1 to date. Let's turn the tide Wednesday...

Race 8: $30,000 maiden claiming fillies & mares 3-years old and up
6 furlongs on dirt; post time 4:57 p.m. ET

The finale on Wednesday will feature an odds-on favorite coming off a layoff since March 30 when Takechargmatriarch (post 5) finished sixth in a $90,000 maiden race at Oaklawn.

She has run second once in five career starts, and hasn’t raced in 200 days. But she raced at a much higher level last out, and therefore she’s been installed as an 8-5 favorite here.

There are three first-time starters in this race, and I’m not interested in using any of them.

The only contenders I see in this race other than the favorite are I’mabarnkat (post 6), Vegan Goes Best (post 7) and It’s a Ford (post 10).

The early pace should involve Takechargmatriarch and Stolen Beauty (post 9). For the sake of the Bailout Special, those two should hook up for a contentious pace with Vegan Goes Best following behind them in a stalking position.

The layoff and being out front of a pressured pace may be too much for the favorite. I expect a pace meltdown at the front, with a few late chargers vying with Vegan Goes Best in the final drive to the wire.

My Bailout Special is Vegan Goes Best, an 8-1 morning line shot, to win with a stalking trip while holding off I’mabarnkat and It’s a Ford late. The favorite can still hit the board.

Key Vegan Goes Best on top of exactas and trifectas over I’mabarnkat, It’s a Ford, and Takechargmatriarch.

 

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