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Breeders' Cup 2017

A Prospective Derby Winner - Pedigree Profile

Prospective wins the Tampa Bay Derby
Prospective emerged as a budding star on the Triple Crown trail with his gutsy triumph in the Tampa Bay Derby (G-3).  Given a perfect ride by Luis Contreras and sporting first time blinkers, the dark bay colt spent the initial stages of the race comfortably on the outside in fourth, just a length from Cajun Charlie. That one set fairly swift fractions through the first half, but started backing up after the ½ mile. Prospective was the first to make a move. He quickly took the lead around the far turn and repealed a half-hearted bid by Spring Hill Farm.  Recent maiden winner Golden Ticket cut the corner and snuck up the rail.  He appeared to lead for a few steps, but then Prospective saw him and the race to the wire was on.  The two game colts quickly separated themselves from the pack and were head and head, until Prospective tired of the game and put away his rival by ¾ length at the finish, stopping the clock in 1:43.35, which is a little more than a second off of the track record.  
Prospective has been prominent at Tampa Bay this year. He started his three year old campaign with a victory in the seven furlong Pasco Stakes, winning despite a loose bandage. A month later in the 1 1/16 mile Sam F. Davis Stakes, the Mark Casse trainee ran farther than the rest, stuck five wide on the first turn and six wide on the second. Despite this, Prospective closed strongly for second place, beaten only 1 ½ lengths by the well-bred maiden Battle Hardened. 
With victories in the Gray Stakes (G-3) as a two year old and his recent win in the Tampa Bay Derby, Prospective is firmly ensconced in eighth place on the Graded Stakes Earnings List.  He’s finished first or second in all except one of his seven starts. His only off the board finish came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished the last of thirteen starters.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has proven to be a key race for this year’s Derby hopefuls. This year, Two Year Old Champ Hanson dominated the Gotham Stakes, while Juvenile runner-ups Union Rags and Creative Cause have also returned to earn graded stakes victories. Speightscity, ninth in the Juvenile, is multiple stakes placed and diminutive Alpha has topped the New York series of Triple Crown preps.  Now Prospective adds his name to the list of graded stakes winners who have exited the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  Let’s evaluate Prospective’s pedigree, conformation and running style to see if he is indeed a deserving Triple Crown contender.
PROSPECTIVE (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) has a stamina oriented pedigree, perfect for the Classic distances.  His sire Malibu Moon, a son of A.P. Indy out of the French Group 1 winner Macoumba, was a precocious youngster, which is rare for a son of A.P. Indy.  The dark bay colt raced only twice, finishing second in his debut, then beat maidens going five furlongs on the dirt at Hollywood Park in May as a two year old. Unfortunately, the well-bred Malibu Moon’s promising career was cut short due to a slab fracture of his right knee.
Malibu Moon started his breeding career in Maryland at Country Life Farm where he stood for $3,000. The royally bred stallion sired a multiple graded stakes winner in his first year at stud. The following year, along came 2004 Champion Two Year Old Declan’s Moon. Four years later, Malibu Moon moved to the big leagues in Kentucky and overall has sired twenty graded stakes winners, seven of whom have won at  1 ¼ miles. Oddly enough, all except one of his classic distance winners are fillies. 
Prospective’s dam Spirited Away won half of her eight starts including the Truly Bound Handicap at 1 1/16 miles over a sloppy track. Prospective is her first foal.  Spirited Away is a half sibling to a stakes placed runner and that is the only other blacktype in the immediate distaff line. However, Prospective’s third dam North Sider was Champion Older Mare of 1982.  Spirited Away has an uncommon Mach 1 breeding pattern, meaning she’s bred through her sire and dam to the same distaff line. Spirited Away is inbred to the blue hen Square Generation. That one is the third dam of Awesome Again and she is also the fourth dam of Spirited Away. This has little connotation for racing, but is a class indicator for breeding.
The Canadian bred Awesome Again, the damsire of Prospective, was a top competitor on the racetrack. A late maturing type, he earned victories in the Queen’s Plate and Whitney Handicap.  As a four year old, despite a perfect season cumulating in a victory over Champions Silver Charm and Skip Away in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Awesome Again was denied an Eclipse Award. 
Awesome Again has consistently been one of the top 100 broodmare sires in the country.  He’s a fairly young and his daughters have yet to produce a stakes winner at classic distances. Since Awesome Again is represented by six winners at classic distances, including Champions Ghostzapper and Ginger Punch, there is no reason to think that his stamina won’t transfer to his daughters’ progeny.
Prospective’s second damsire Capote won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was Champion Two Year Old in 1986. He lends a touch of speed to Prospective’s pedigree. 
Malibu Moon has an affinity for the daughters of Awesome. All three starters have won and one is now a graded stakes winner.
Prospective resembles his sire and overall has the conformation of a typical A.P. Indy colt.  He has the body of a two turn horse with a deep, slanted shoulder balanced by a powerful hind end.  He’s an average sized (16.0 – 16.2 hands) colt with normal musculature. Prospective is an athletic runner with no wasted motion and offers a good burst of sustained speed when asked. He’s shown the ability to stalk and recently, with added blinkers, he’s altered his running style to sit a length off of the lead. According to his trainer, Mark Casse, Prospective will race once more before the Kentucky Derby, possibly in the Wood Memorial.  Keep this prospective Derby contender on your watch list.
By HRN Pedigree Expert, Laurie Ross 


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Older Comments about A Prospective Derby Winner - Pedigree Profile...

Answers my question, thank you, now another unrelated to the above, but you're a good springboard. William Nack in the 4 part Secretariat YouTube (part 2 at 4:55on) is talking about Sec's progeny, a great broodmare sire etc, but that he can't think of a truly great racehorse who reproduced himself and he mentions,Man O War, Citation, Count Fleet, Alydar,Seattle Slew, Affirmed. Mentions neither Native Dancer, nor Northern Dancer. Nack does mention Eclipse, but do you think either Dancer qualifies as achieving reproducing as good as they ran?
Thanks for the compliments. AnnaK, breeders/buyers do plenty of research and have specific goals in mind when breeding/ buying horses. Although there is plenty of commercial breeding, the old adage of breeding the best to the best and hoping for the best still applies today. I hope that answers your question. If not, please email me privately.
I happen to love any colt that has the AP Indy genes.
I will be curious to see how A Prospective does! He has my support!
Nice writing
One more thing Laurie, aside from all the physical attributes and capabilities, how much do breeders/buyers consider the character and intelligence of the pedigree?
Wonderfulwonderful article, love this stuff and will keep rereading it. How do you learn all this? Most appreciated.

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