5 longshots to bet in Arlington Million 2018 day stakes races

August 10, 2018 02:21pm
Horse Racing Nation handicapper Jarrod Horak runs down Saturday's Arlington Million day stakes:

Race 8 - $100,000 Bruce D Memorial - One Mile All-Weather Surface

Favorites: #7 The Tabulator (2-1) is the chalk. He has been facing better on dirt, and in his lone local outing, he romped in his career debut last summer. #5 Nobrag Justfact (3-1) is the second choice. He ran well in his last four turf outings, and his numbers are rising fast. He is interesting if he handles the all-weather surface. 

Value Win Contender: #1 Chief Oakie Dokie (9-2) has run over the local all-weather surface once, and he overcame a slow pace and rallied from last to beat $100,000 state-bred stakes foes at this distance that day. Jose Ortiz takes the call, and horses breaking from the inside post are 7-for-16 at this distance. 

Live Longshot: #9 Strollin the Bayou (5-1) followed up a local all-weather route win in the Purple Violet for Illinois-breds with a local turf route victory vs. open company. She owns competitive numbers and is 2-for-2 since adding blinkers. 

Race 9 - G1 Secretariat Stakes - 10 Furlongs Turf

Favorites: #9 Analyze It (2-1) had the lead in his last pair, but allowed Catholic Boy to come back and beat him both times. He has never finished out of the exacta and is a solid threat, but he will almost certainly take too much action for Ortiz/Chad Brown. #13 Hunting Horn (7-2) chased Catholic Boy and Analyze It all the way around the track in the G1 Belmont Derby, and he settled for the show in a solid effort. He can get the job done in this spot if he gets a bit more pace to chase. 

Value Win Contender: #2 Platinum Warrior (10-1) was not ready for group one company at a mile and a half in the G1 Irish Derby last time. He won a Group 3 in Ireland at this distance before that, and he beat Irish Derby hero Latrobe that day. Joel Rosario hops aboard the interesting import.  

Live Longshot: #12 Lucius Tiberius (12-1) invades from Ireland for Aidan O'Brien. He cut back in distance and won his last two starts at this 10-furlong distance, and he also graduated at a mile and a quarter in May. He gets tested for class today.  

Race 10 - G1 Beverly D. Stakes - 9.5 Furlongs Turf

Favorites: #3 Sistercharlie (9-5) packs a big late punch for Brown. She was right there in her last seven starts, including a dramatic score in the G1 Diana July 21. #7 Fourstarcrook (9-2) is also trained by Brown. The late runner almost always cracks the Top 3, and she upset stablemate Sistercharlie in the G2 New York at this distance June 8.

Value Win Contender: #9 Athena (3-1) is a 3-year-old filly taking on older for O’Brien. She looked very good winning the G1 Belmont Oaks July 7, and she confidently steps up to face better older rivals today. She might be listed as the second choice on the morning line, but the Brown runners will likely take the bulk of the win action, and her odds might drift up a bit. 

Live Longshot: #4 Dona Bruja (6-1) is 11-for-16 with a trio place finishes. The only two times she did not fire exacta shots were her two outings at Keeneland. In her two local turf outings last year, she smartly captured the G3 Modesty, and rallied to dead-heat for the place in this event. 

Race 11 - G1 Arlington Million - 10 Furlongs Turf

Favorites: #11 Oscar Performance (3-1) smartly won his return in the G3 Poker, and that flat mile race around one turn at Belmont was a bit sharp for him. He won both turf starts at this distance including the G1 Secretariat at Arlington last summer. #10 Robert Bruce (9-2) was 7-for-7 heading into the G1 Manhattan, and he ended up sixth by a length in that bunched up affair. The Brown trainee could easily win this event.

Value Win Contender: #3 Almanaar (5-1) won the G1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap in 2017, and finally returned to beat his stablemate Ticonderoga (next out winner at Saratoga Aug. 9) in an optional claiming prep for this June 8. The 6-for-15 gelding has back class and might be the right Brown runner from a value standpoint. 

Live Longshot: #9 Deauville (6-1) landed the show in this event in 2016 and 2017. He exits a neck defeat in a group three in Ireland, and maybe the third time is the charm for the O’Brien runner. 

Race 12 - G3 Pucker Up - 9 Furlongs Turf

Favorites: #13 Beyond Blame (3-1) has only run one below-par race, and that was a troubled sixth of 10 in the G3 Edgewood at CD. She exits a sharp victory at this distance in the G3 Regret, and her winning rider Florent Geroux will have to work out a trip from post 13 with the versatile filly. #1 Dark Artist (9-2) won her last three starts, and Trevor McCarthy is 2-for-2 with her. She figures in the hunt throughout from the hedge.

Value Win Contender: #3 Pamina (8-1) ran well in all four starts for Michael Dickinson, and her numbers are on the rise. Ortiz hops aboard, and she might be able to compete here with another forward move. 

Live Longshot: #10 Secret Message (12-1) exits a troubled fourth in the G3 Regret, and she caught soft turf in a clear place finish behind a runaway winner in the $100,000 Hilltop at Pimlico before that. The Graham Motion runner is worth a look at a price if she works out a decent trip under Irad Ortiz Jr.  

 

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