The latest prep winner had his odds cut like the typical flavor of the week. Mattress Mack made his mark. Nevada bookmakers went opposite directions with the new filly on the block. And, oh, yes. There were three different favorites to close the weekend in the three Kentucky Derby 2022 futures markets.
It feels like as good a time as any for the last break in the prep schedule before the serious, 100-40-20-10 pointers begin.
Based on the best prices for bettors, San Felipe (G2) winner Forbidden Kingdom and Risen Star (G2) runner-up Smile Happy remained the consensus, joint favorites Sunday night, each available at 10-1 in Las Vegas.
Forbidden Kingdom carried those odds at Circa Sports and was the 6-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill. Smile Happy was 10-1 at both Nevada shops, although Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Classic Causeway was cut from 16-1 to a 9-1 favorite at Circa.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who owns Smile Happy’s stallion Runhappy, told Horse Racing Nation he bet “a couple thousand” dollars Saturday in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. That bet was the difference in making the Kenny McPeek-trained colt the 6-1 individual favorite in Pool 4 of the weekend pari-mutuels that were offered nationally by Churchill Downs.
It actually was the “all other 3-year-olds” option, the mutuel-field choice of any Derby horse other than 23 listed individuals, that closed as the 4-1 KDFW favorite.
Pari-mutuel bettors who put their money on “all others” might have considered the looming possibility of unlisted Bob Baffert horses, such as two-time Grade 3 winner Messier, being moved to other trainers to make them eligible for the Derby. They also had the added enticement of the filly Secret Oath, the Honeybee (G3) winner whom trainer D. Wayne Lukas will send against males April 2 in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Secret Oath was cut from 85-1 to 25-1 at Caesars at William Hill, but she drifted from 25-1 to 28-1 at Circa, perhaps in an effort to drive some business her way.
While Churchill takes a break from booking Derby bets until its final pool March 31-April 2, the Nevada books list a combined 184 horses for their round-the-clock futures.
| Kentucky Derby futures | Circa | C-WH | KDFW | Trainer | Sire |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forbidden Kingdom | 10-1 | 6-1 | 7-1 | Richard Mandella | American Pharoah |
| Smile Happy | 10-1 | 10-1 | 6-1 | Ken McPeek | Runhappy |
| Classic Causeway | 9-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 | Brian Lynch | Giant's Causeway |
| Epicenter | 10-1 | 8-1 | 13-1 | Steve Asmussen | Not This Time |
| Messier | 15-1 | 8-1 | Bob Baffert | Empire Maker | |
| Charge It | 15-1 | 16-1 | 17-1 | Todd Pletcher | Tapit |
| Morello | 12-1 | 14-1 | 17-1 | Steve Asmussen | Classic Empire |
| Simplification | 16-1 | 8-1 | 19-1 | Antonio Sano | Not This Time |
| Jack Christopher | 20-1 | Chad Brown | Munnings | ||
| Zandon | 22-1 | 15-1 | 22-1 | Chad Brown | Upstart |
| Mo Donegal | 22-1 | 15-1 | 24-1 | Todd Pletcher | Uncle Mo |
| Early Voting | 27-1 | 16-1 | 19-1 | Chad Brown | Gun Runner |
| Secret Oath (f) | 28-1 | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Arrogate | |
| High Oak | 30-1 | Bill Mott | Gormley | ||
| Rattle N Roll | 30-1 | 25-1 | 31-1 | Ken McPeek | Connect |
| Emmanuel | 10-1 | 20-1 | 33-1 | Todd Pletcher | More Than Ready |
| White Abarrio | 35-1 | 15-1 | 22-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Race Day |
| Cyberknife | 40-1 | 40-1 | 36-1 | Brad Cox | Gun Runner |
| Echo Zulu (f) | 45-1 | 40-1 | Steve Asmussen | Gun Runner | |
| In Due Time | 25-1 | 16-1 | 48-1 | Kelly Breen | Not This Time |
| Chasing Time | 45-1 | 50-1 | Steve Asmussen | Not This Time | |
| Corniche | 50-1 | 20-1 | Bob Baffert | Quality Road | |
| Taiba | 50-1 | Bob Baffert | Gun Runner | ||
| Tiz the Bomb | 50-1 | 40-1 | Ken McPeek | Hit It a Bomb | |
| Wit | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher | Practical Joke | ||
| Zozos | 50-1 | 35-1 | 30-1 | Brad Cox | Munnings |
| Oviatt Class | 60-1 | Keith Desormeaux | Bernardini | ||
| Barber Road | 65-1 | 40-1 | 39-1 | John Ortiz | Raceday |
| Ethereal Road | 70-1 | 35-1 | 32-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Quality Road |
| Iron Works | 70-1 | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher | Distorted Humor | |
| American Icon | 75-1 | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Gun Runner | |
| Commandperformance | 65-1 | 75-1 | Todd Pletcher | Union Rags | |
| Newgrange | 40-1 | 75-1 | Bob Baffert | Violence | |
| Pappacap | 60-1 | 75-1 | Mark Casse | Gun Runner | |
| Rocket Dawg | 75-1 | 45-1 | Brad Cox | Classic Empire | |
| Shipsational | 75-1 | 40-1 | 51-1 | Ed Barker | Midshipman |
| Slow Down Andy | 75-1 | 75-1 | Doug O'Neill | Nyquist | |
| We the People | 50-1 | 75-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | Constitution | |
| Combustion | 85-1 | Keizo Ito | Discreet Cat | ||
| Un Ojo (g) | 55-1 | 90-1 | 36-1 | Ricky Courville | Laoban |
| Geraldo Barows | 100-1 | Ryo Terashima | Sinister Minister | ||
| God of Love | 100-1 | Mark Casse | Cupid | ||
| Sekifu | 100-1 | Koshiro Take | Henny Hughes | ||
| Sir London | 100-1 | Simon Callaghan | Malibu Moon | ||
| Call Me Midnight | 125-1 | 35-1 | 68-1 | Keith Desormeaux | Midnight Lute |
| Doppelgänger | 125-1 | 25-1 | Bob Baffert | Into Mischief | |
| Giant Game | 75-1 | 125-1 | Dale Romans | Giant's Causeway | |
| Marsalis | 125-1 | Steve Asmussen | Curlin | ||
| Momentous | 125-1 | Todd Pletcher | Speightstown | ||
| My Prankster | 125-1 | Todd Pletcher | Into Mischief | ||
| Pinehurst | 125-1 | 85-1 | Bob Baffert | Twirling Candy | |
| Varatti | 125-1 | 75-1 | Todd Pletcher | Into Mischief | |
| Old Homestead | 135-1 | Brett Brinkman | Overanalyze | ||
| Dean's List | 150-1 | 75-1 | Todd Pletcher | Speightstown | |
| Dry Stout | 150-1 | Mitsunori Makiura | Sinister Minister | ||
| Golden Glider | 150-1 | 75-1 | Mark Casse | Ghostzapper | |
| Mackinnon | 150-1 | Doug O'Neill | American Pharoah | ||
| Major General | 100-1 | 150-1 | 65-1 | Todd Pletcher | Constitution |
| Make It Big | 150-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Neolithic | ||
| Money Supply | 150-1 | 100-1 | Chad Brown | Practical Joke | |
| O Captain | 150-1 | 150-1 | Gustavo Delgado | Carpe Diem | |
| Volcanic | 150-1 | 125-1 | Mark Casse | Violence | |
| Straight Up G | 160-1 | 100-1 | Richard Baltas | Straight Fire | |
| A. P.'s Secret | 100-1 | 175-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Cupid | |
| Bold Journey | 175-1 | Bill Mott | Hard Spun | ||
| Bye Bye Bobby | 175-1 | Todd Fincher | Quality Road | ||
| Durante | 175-1 | Doug O'Neill | Distorted Humor | ||
| Finneus | 175-1 | Walther Solis | Stay Thirsty | ||
| Gilded Age | 175-1 | 150-1 | Bill Mott | Medaglia d'Oro | |
| Gold Rush Candy | 175-1 | Bob Baffert | Danzing Candy | ||
| Grantham | 175-1 | 125-1 | Mike Maker | Declaration of War | |
| Rockefeller | 175-1 | Bob Baffert | Medaglia d'Oro | ||
| Ben Diesel | 200-1 | 175-1 | Dallas Stewart | Will Take Charge | |
| Cogburn | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | Not This Time | ||
| Enbarr | 200-1 | Bob Baffert | Brody's Cause | ||
| Happy Jack | 200-1 | Doug O'Neill | Oxbow | ||
| Howling Time | 200-1 | 100-1 | Dale Romans | Not This Time | |
| Markhamian | 200-1 | Juan Carlos Ávila | Social Inclusion | ||
| Nitrous Channel | 200-1 | 135-1 | George Weaver | Nyquist | |
| Osbourne (g) | 200-1 | Ron Moquett | Tapiture | ||
| Overbore | 200-1 | Wesley Ward | Speightstown | ||
| Power Agenda | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher | Nyquist | ||
| Tough to Tame | 200-1 | Chris Davis | Speightster | ||
| Trafalgar | 200-1 | 150-1 | Al Stall Jr. | Lord Nelson | |
| Coinage | 225-1 | Mark Casse | Tapit | ||
| Don't Wait Up | 225-1 | Tony Dutrow | Upstart | ||
| Galt | 225-1 | Bill Mott | Medaglia d'Oro | ||
| Golden Code | 225-1 | 125-1 | Todd Pletcher | Honor Code | |
| Kevin's Folly | 225-1 | Tom Amoss | Distorted Humor | ||
| Klugman | 225-1 | Eddie Plesa Jr. | Practical Joke | ||
| Longshadow | 225-1 | Kelsey Danner | Tapiture | ||
| Micky From Wexford (g) | 225-1 | John Ennis | Dialed In | ||
| Pioneer of Medina | 225-1 | 71-1 | Todd Pletcher | Pioneerof the Nile | |
| Wharton | 225-1 | 100-1 | Bob Baffert | Candy Ride | |
| American Xperiment | 250-1 | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | Nyquist | |
| B Sudd | 250-1 | Dallas Stewart | Jimmy Creed | ||
| Bodock | 250-1 | Brad Cox | Street Boss | ||
| Candy Landing (r) | 250-1 | Brendan Walsh | Twirling Candy | ||
| Cool Papa G | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | Maclean's Music | ||
| Courvoisier | 250-1 | 175-1 | Kelly Breen | Tapit | |
| Dash Attack | 250-1 | 125-1 | Ken McPeek | Munnings | |
| Dean Delivers (g) | 200-1 | 250-1 | Michael Yates | Cajun Breeze | |
| Flying Drummer | 250-1 | 125-1 | Bob Baffert | Gun Runner | |
| Home Brew | 250-1 | 175-1 | Brad Cox | Street Sense | |
| Kenner | 250-1 | Jamie Ness | Laoban | ||
| King Cab (g) | 250-1 | Eddie Plesa Jr. | Noble Bird | ||
| Lucky Boss | 250-1 | Ken McPeek | Street Boss | ||
| Stellar Tap | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | Tapit | ||
| Strava | 250-1 | 125-1 | Dallas Stewart | Into Mischief | |
| Strike Hard | 250-1 | 90-1 | Matthew Williams | Flashback | |
| Surfer Dude | 250-1 | Dallas Stewart | Curlin | ||
| Tawny Port | 250-1 | Brad Cox | Pioneerof the Nile | ||
| Who Hoo Thats Me | 250-1 | Jorge Abreu | Keen Ice | ||
| Dance Code | 275-1 | Juan Vázquez | Honor Code | ||
| All in Sync | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen | Maclean's Music | ||
| Apprehend | 300-1 | Rene Amescua | Arrogate | ||
| Beautiful Art | 300-1 | Simon Callaghan | Klimt | ||
| Cajun's Magic (g) | 300-1 | 125-1 | Michael Yates | Cajun Breeze | |
| Call Me Jamal (g) | 300-1 | Mike Puhich | Malibu Moon | ||
| Classic Moment | 300-1 | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | Classic Empire | |
| Constitutionlawyer | 300-1 | 125-1 | Ray Handal | Constitution | |
| Favorite Outlaw | 300-1 | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | Maclean's Music | |
| Gilded Ruler | 300-1 | Brad Cox | Into Mischief | ||
| Glider | 300-1 | Mark Casse | Quality Road | ||
| Great Escape | 300-1 | 225-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | Midnight Storm | |
| Hagler | 300-1 | Rudy Rodríguez | Tapiture | ||
| Hot Rod Rumble (g) | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen | Midnight Storm | ||
| Impressionist (g) | 300-1 | 250-1 | Rob Atras | Mission Impazible | |
| Joe | 300-1 | 200-1 | Mike Trombetta | Declaration of War | |
| Kavod | 300-1 | 150-1 | Jim Chapman | Lea | |
| Kitten Mischief (g) | 300-1 | Jonathan Thomas | Into Mischief | ||
| Kupuna | 300-1 | 200-1 | Bret Calhoun | Hard Spun | |
| Legendary Lore | 300-1 | 300-1 | Bill Morey | Practical Joke | |
| McLaren Vale | 300-1 | 175-1 | Bob Baffert | Gun Runner | |
| Montebello | 300-1 | 200-1 | Bob Baffert | Curlin | |
| Rich Strike | 300-1 | Butch Reed | Keen Ice | ||
| Trademark (g) | 300-1 | 200-1 | Vicki Oliver | Upstart | |
| Belgrade | 350-1 | 200-1 | Brendan Walsh | Hard Spun | |
| Cabo Spirit | 350-1 | George Papaprodromou | Pioneerof the Nile | ||
| Fromanothamutha | 350-1 | 250-1 | Ray Handal | Unified | |
| Happy Boy Rocket | 350-1 | 250-1 | Bill Mott | Runhappy | |
| In Dreams | 350-1 | 200-1 | Brad Cox | Frosted | |
| Key Point | 350-1 | 200-1 | Chad Brown | Into Mischief | |
| Life Is Great | 350-1 | 250-1 | Bob Klesaris | Tapiture | |
| Lightening Larry | 350-1 | 225-1 | Jeff Engler | Uncaptured | |
| Naval Aviator | 350-1 | Brad Cox | Tapit | ||
| Quick to Blame | 350-1 | Brad Cox | Blame | ||
| Skippylongstocking | 350-1 | 150-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Exaggerator | |
| Spin Wheel | 350-1 | Rusty Arnold | Hard Spun | ||
| Swing Shift | 350-1 | 200-1 | Midnight Form | Todd Pletcher | |
| Barese | 400-1 | 85-1 | Mike Maker | Laoban | |
| Blue Kentucky (g) | 400-1 | Wayne Catalano | Include | ||
| Bourbon Heist | 400-1 | Ian Wilkes | Practical Joke | ||
| Bron and Brow | 400-1 | Ruben Alvarado | Gormley | ||
| Chattalot | 400-1 | Steve Asmussen | Midnight Lute | ||
| Cooke Creek | 400-1 | 200-1 | Jeremiah O'Dwyer | Uncle Mo | |
| Costa Terra | 400-1 | Steve Asmussen | Gun Runner | ||
| Freelancer | 400-1 | Brendan Walsh | Medaglia d'Oro | ||
| Geno | 400-1 | David Donk | Big Brown | ||
| Graphic Detail | 400-1 | Bill Mott | Practical Joke | ||
| Gunfighter | 400-1 | Brad Cox | Ghostzapper | ||
| Higher Standard | 400-1 | Tom Amoss | Into Mischief | ||
| Hoist the Gold | 400-1 | Dallas Stewart | Mineshaft | ||
| Ignitis | 400-1 | 250-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Nyquist | |
| Insolito | 400-1 | Brad Cox | Connect | ||
| Line Change | 400-1 | 200-1 | Mike Stidham | Nyquist | |
| Magnolia Midnight | 400-1 | Dallas Stewart | Midnight Storm | ||
| Midnight Chrome | 400-1 | Tyler Servis | California Chrome | ||
| Octane (g) | 400-1 | 100-1 | Carlos David | Brethren | |
| Of a Revolution | 400-1 | 175-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Maclean's Music | |
| Peaceful Waters | 400-1 | Al Stall Jr. | Dialed In | ||
| Presidential | 400-1 | Steve Asmussen | Pioneerof the Nile | ||
| Red Run | 400-1 | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | Gun Runner | |
| Rotknee | 400-1 | 225-1 | Mike Maker | Runhappy | |
| Smarten Up | 400-1 | Alfredo Velázquez | American Freedom | ||
| Worse Read Sánchez | 400-1 | Doug O'Neill | Square Eddie | ||
| American Sanctuary | 500-1 | Chris Davis | American Freedom | ||
| Barossa | 500-1 | 250-1 | Rodolph Brisset | Into Mischief | |
| Cattin | 500-1 | 250-1 | Ralph Nicks | Neolithic | |
| Fast Draw Munnings | 500-1 | Jeff Mullins | Munnings | ||
| Hitting Bombs | 500-1 | Brian Lynch | Gun Runner | ||
| Little Vic | 500-1 | 225-1 | Juan Carlos Ávila | Practical Joke | |
| Nineties Country | 500-1 | Brad Cox | Connect | ||
| Old Town Road | 500-1 | Wesley Ward | Classic Empire | ||
| All other 3-year-olds* | 4-1 | ||||
| f-Filly g-Gelding r-Ridgling | |||||
| *Not among KDFW individual choices | |||||
| Circa: Circa Sports | |||||
| C-WH: Caesars at William Hill | |||||
| KDFW: Kentucky Derby Future Wager |
