Whether it is pari-mutuel wagering or fixed odds, two horses have been separated by horseplayers and bookmakers from the pack of contenders for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
While Essential Quality held his ground at 8-1, Life Is Good was shortened to 10-1 from 12-1 in the last week. The two colts also were the top individual choices during the holiday weekend in Churchill Downs’ first pari-mutuel pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, but in reverse order. Life Is Good was 5-1 in the KDFW; Essential Quality 8-1.
With the big two idle for now, most of the movement in the William Hill futures came as a result of Saturday’s races at Churchill Downs.
After winning as the favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Keepmeinmind shortened to 50-1 from 75-1. Runner-up Smiley Sobotka moved to 75-1 from 100-1. Conversely, a last-place finish faded Inspector Frost to 175-1 from 125-1.
An allowance winner on the undercard Saturday at Churchill Downs, 2-for-2 Mandaloun went to 75-1 from 110-1. Owned by Juddmonte Farms and trained by likely Eclipse Award winner Brad Cox, he is by Into Mischief. The stallion — who also has Life Is Good and this year’s Derby winner Authentic on his résumé — closed as the 4-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager.
The bull market on Into Mischief babies, though, ends with Highly Motivated. He slipped to 75-1 from a 30-1 third choice. Since winning the black-type Nyquist Stakes early this month on Breeders’ Cup Friday, he has not had a timed workout for trainer Chad Brown.
Five horses were added to the William Hill futures since last week, bringing its list to 138.
Beep Beep (125-1): The Whitney Stables homebred won his debut on closing day Sunday at Churchill Downs, chasing the pace before overpowering a rival in the stretch of the seven-furlong race. Trained by Norm Casse and ridden by Joe Talamo, the Tapizar colt is out of the Birdstone mare Speedy Bird.
Parnelli (125-1): The $500,000 Quality Road colt out of the Bernardini mare Sip Sip broke his maiden on his fourth try for trainer John Shirreffs, coming through with jockey Drayden Van Dyke in a two-turn mile Saturday at Del Mar. His two most recent losses were over the same distance by just a neck to Hot Rod Charlie (50-1) and Spielberg (75-1), both of whom have been Grade 1 runners-up.
Return the Ring (125-1): This Maryland-bred set the pace as the third choice among seven starters in his six-furlong debut Saturday at Aqueduct, winning with jockey Dylan Davis by 1 3/4 lengths. From the small stable of Ed Barker, the Speightster colt has been through the sales ring twice, most recently bought in May by Iris Smith for $130,000.
Swiftsure (125-1): A debut winner at six furlongs Saturday at the Fair Grounds, this pacesetter ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan comes from the deep stable of Steve Asmussen, who is also his co-owner. The colt by Uncle Mo out of the Speightstown broodmare Island Saint was bet down to 11-10 on the strength of a bullet gate work and a follow-up 1:00.0 breeze over five furlongs on the New Orleans track.
Swot Analysis (140-1). Named for the business acronym that stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, this Mark Casse trainee broke his maiden in his second start. Eased to the wire by jockey Declan Carroll, the first-crop Anchor Down colt still drew away by 9 3/4 lengths Friday at the Fair Grounds against 11 rivals, eight of whom were making their debuts. Leonard Green and Chuck Zacney bought Swot Analysis during the summer for $62,000.
William Hill’s exclusive hold on domestic, fixed-odds futures is expected to end this week, when Circa Sports of Las Vegas posts its opening Derby odds.
Following is William Hill’s full list of Kentucky Derby futures. Last Monday’s odds are in parentheses where there were changes.
8-1 Essential Quality
10-1 Life Is Good (12-1)
35-1 Classier, Red Flag
40-1 Caddo River, Jackie’s Warrior
50-1 Dr. Schivel, Hot Rod Charlie, Keepmeinmind (75-1), Olympiad
60-1 Jaxon Traveler, Vittorio
75-1 Cazadero, Get Her Number, Highly Motivated (30-1), Huntsinger, Mandaloun (110-1), Midnight Bourbon, Mutasaabeq, Smiley Sobotka (100-1), Spielberg, Stayin’ Out Late
85-1 Savile Row
90-1 Santa Cruiser, Team Merchants
100-1 Calibrate, Effinity,
Founder, Hidden Stash, Hyperfocus, Known Agenda, Reinvestment Risk, Rombauer, Scarred
(125-1), Speaker’s Corner, Super Stock, Swill, Ten For Ten, Therideofalifetime,
120-1 Boca Boy, Gagetown,
Eagle Orb, Freedom Fighter, Pickin’ Time, Seminole Beach, Uno
125-1 Beep Beep (opener), Bolden,
Brooklyn Strong, Chicks For Free,
140-1 Bold Minister, Herd
Immunity, Kenny Had a Notion, Raison d’Air, Sonic Brees, Sound the Charge, Swot
Analysis (opener), Waist Deep
150-1 Ambivalent, Ascot
Storm, Awesome Gerry, Belafonte, Blue Gator,
175-1 Big Daddy Dave, Camp
Hope (150-1), Cousin Larry (130-1), Garoppolo, Hercules, Horn of Plenty,
Inspector Frost (125-1), Lookin For Trouble, Real Talk, Seazan, Son of a Beast,
Upstriker, Xtreme Mayhem
200-1 Al Heybay,
Ampersand, Big Flame, Boomer, Dalton, Tiz Handsome, Ultimate Badger (150-1), What’s
Up Surfer, Wyfire
225-1 Famous Gent, Tacoflavoredkisses
250-1 Basso, Erawan, It Can Be Done, Momos, Schnell (175-1), Superman Shaq (200-1)
300-1 Advance Cash
350-1 Valiant Thor