2019 Kentucky Derby odds: Looking for contenders with value

March 04, 2019 05:54pm

With two months now to go before the first Saturday in May, the board is due to shrink, both in interests listed for the 2019 Kentucky Derby and the odds at which you can bet them.

The latest look at William Hill U.S.’ shows familiar short prices with Game Winner (9-2) the favorite and his Bob Baffert-trained San Felipe Stakes rival Improbable (6-1) the second choice. Instagrand, who returns in Saturday’s Gotham Stakes, is 8-1, while recent Fountain of Youth winner Code of Honor dropped to be a co-third choice.

How about some remaining value? If you have access to William Hill U.S.’ sports book with Kentucky Derby betting, consider these — and get a look at the full board below:

Extra Hope (50-1): Trainer Richard Mandella will take on California’s big guns with this allowance winner in the San Felipe. He could prove to be a cut below, but Extra Hope earned his chance Jan. 31 over a sloppy, sealed track, and will be in against an expected short field this weekend with a consequential number of points up for grabs.

Maximum Security (60-1): Trainer Jason Servis debuted this one for a tag, but after starer allowance company wins by 6 1/2 lengths and then more recently 18 1/4 lengths, the colt sharing ownership with Game Winner in Gary and Mary West will give the Florida Derby a try. Who knows his potential? Servis also trains Final Jeopardy (175-1), winner of a Sunday allowance at Gulfstream Park.

Mind Control (60-1) and Well Defined (75-1): We’ll present these together given both are graded stakes winners who like to lead but may have distance limitations. Mind Control will remain around one turn in Saturday’s Gotham, while Well Defined goes 1 1/16 miles again in the Tampa Bay Derby. In recent years, the Kentucky Derby has been won by horses that can sit on or near the pace and evenly distribute energy. Both here have at least half of that equation down.

Frosted Ice (75-1): Trainer Ron Moquett has brought this New York-bred stakes winner along patiently, with a goal of striking in one of Oaklawn Park’s late $1 million preps, the Rebel or Arkansas Derby. This big gray son of Bellamy Road made a nice move to circle the field and win Belmont Park’s Bertram F. Bongard Stakes when last seen Sept. 21.

Tacitus (100-1): The Bill Mott trainee is the first foal out of Close Hatches and will make his season debut in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. A recent workout video shows him getting beat to the wire by stablemate Hidden Scroll, but Mott has always made sure to mention this Juddmonte Farms runner when discussing his 3-year-olds prospects.


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