Super Derby 2016: Odds and Analysis

September 10, 2016 01:09pm
Dalmore wins 2016 Affirmed
Photo: Benoit Photo/Santa Anita


The race of the year at Louisiana Downs is set for this Saturday, and a field of seven has been entered for the $400,000 Super Derby. Previous editions of the signature race at the Bossier City oval have been accounted for by such stars as Sunny’s Halo, Gate Dancer, Alysheba, Seeking the Gold, Sunday Silence, and Tiznow. Now a Grade 3 affair, it remains to be seen whether this year’s cast includes a future star, but there are a couple at the top here who certainly have the potential to make plenty of noise down the road. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field with my projected odds and analysis...

 

6) Dalmore (8-5) – He is certainly making a class drop after tangling with the likes of California Chrome, Beholder, and Dortmund in the Pacific Classic. While it took the son of Colonel John some time to come around for trainer Keith Desormeaux, it is clearly evident that he has turned the corner in most recent starts. An allowance win in late May was followed by his first stakes win in the Grade 3 Affirmed at Santa Anita. The last one was obviously a bit much, but all in all, his fifth-place, middle of the pack finish was further proof of his progressive nature. There is no reason to believe he cannot bounce back from the defeat against tougher to run big in the Super Derby. He should be much closer early than his top opposition which gives him the advantage. Getting Good


2) Mo Tom (7-5) – Away since winning the $500,000 Ohio Derby, the often unlucky son of Uncle Mo has consistently accounted well for himself in his career. A confirmed stretch runner for trainer Tom Amoss, the GMB Racing charge sandwiched a trio of unfortunate trips in the middle of nice stakes wins in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, and his most recent win at Thistledown. Of course those unlucky starts came on the road to the Kentucky Derby, and the Derby itself, so a little building up of his confidence in some of these 'other' derbies makes sense. I still believe he is one of the ten best of the foal crop, but this race might put him at a distinct pace disadvantage. Jersey Joe Bravo will ride. The Chief Rival

 

5) Texas Chrome (4-1) – The winner of the local prep, this son of Grasshopper is a consistent winner having taken 6-of-11 lifetime. He stepped out of his comfort zone when leaving the southwest to test big names like Gun Runner and American Freedom in back-to-back starts. He could not handle either, but he did not embarrass himself. The Prelude victory over Sharp Azteca was nice, and demonstrates that he likes the track. I think the top two are more talented, but you have to respect a horse that fires every time. Likes to Win

 

1) Whateverybodywants (6-1) – The late developing son of Giant Oak has done nothing wrong this year. After two solid wins to begin his season at Arlington Park and Prairie Meadows, he has demonstrated that he fits with graded stakes horses in his last two. In fact, he ran a very good race to be second in a big field, and behind only the highly regarded Cupid in the West Virginia Derby last time. He was 74-1 that afternoon, but my guess is that you never see him at those kind of odds again. Late Developer

 

3) Mending Fences (20-1) – The second of four horses in here who competed in last month’s Prelude, Mending Fences finished third that day. While the winner of that one deserves a prominent billing in here, I find it hard to recommend the other three. As far as this one, the son of Colonel John is marginally the one I like best of the bombers. Hoping for a Check

 

4) Classy Bird (30-1) – Fifth in the local prep, the Birdstone colt did rally a bit that day at odds of 45-1 against a very slow early pace. Not sure if he will see much pace in here either, but rallying for fifth again is a distinct possibility. Could Pass Tired Horses

 

7) Fort Pulaski (40-1) – The lightly raced Evangeline shipper was seventh in the Prelude. I cannot predict any better for him against this field in the Super Derby. Too Much Too Soon

 

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Meet Brian Zipse

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat, Forego, and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, American Pharoah and Justify. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. His new racing partnership venture, Derby Day Racing, invites more fans to experience the thrill of racehorse ownership.

The Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, Brian authored a daily column as Zipse at the Track, created the popular racing show, HorseCenter and added his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Now a Senior Writer for HRN, Brian continues to contribute his thoughts on racing, as well as hosting HorseCenter. A big supporter of thoroughbred aftercare, he serves as the President of The Exceller Fund.

Brian's work has also been published on several leading industry sites. He has consulted for leading contest site Derby Wars, is both a Hall of Fame and NTRA poll voter, and is a Vox Populi committee member. 

A horse owner and graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives just outside of Louisville with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra.

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