Fresh off a nice win by my bet of the week, Jake Mo, in last night's Prairie Gold Juvenile, I look to keep the guns a blazin' with a big longshot selection in today's middle jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown. While the absentee Queen's Plate champion, Inglorious looks ahead to Saratoga's Alabama Stakes, several of the colts she defeated, figure to vie for favoritism in Fort Erie's Prince of Wales Stakes. I am going to go a different way though, as I see all of the Queen's Plate also rans as very beatable again today. My selection is the new shooter, Welloiledmachine. The gelded son of Mobil has only one win in five lifetime starts, but I see a lot to like for the horse that is listed as the single longest shot on the morning line.
One of only two horses in the field to have ever run on dirt, Bowman's Causeway being the other, Welloiledmachine is coming off a deceptively good race on this surface in his latest effort. In that race, an allowance race against older horses at Fort Erie, the Michael Keogh trainee, battled all the way on the lead before succumbing late to lose by just a half a length in the 1 1/16 mile test. Take note that he was eleven lengths clear of the third place finisher. It was his third race off the layoff, and he has shown improvement each time.
As a juvenile, he was an impressive maiden winner in his second start, after running only moderately well in his debut. In his win, Welloiledmachine was able to rally from mid-pack, helping me believe that he has the ability to be on the lead today, or sit a little off if he needs to. Without a lot of pace in today's race on paper, he should be forwardly placed and be able to find a good position throughout from the #4 post position.
He has been working well, furthering my belief that he is a horse on the improve, and coming up to this race in fine fettle. While most of the rest of the field is coming out of a tough race in the Queen's Plate three weeks ago, Welloiledmachine has a nice four-week break from his last race. His sire, Mobil was a champion in Canada, who could run well on any surface, and at any distance, so today's distance of 1 3/16 should be within the scope of my pick.
Let the Queen's Plate crew of Hippolytus, Check Your Soul, Pender Harbour, and Bowman's Causeway take all the bettor's money. I will be more than happy to take the horse who has a good race both over dirt, and the track, at odds of around 20-1.