

2. Orb (Malibu Moon -Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Shug McGaughey – I'm not sure if it is the connections or what, but this is a colt that I want to see do well. He was my pick to win the Fountain of Youth, but in all honesty, I was not overly confident in his ability to defeat Violence. He was aided by a fast pace that day, but his ability to get the job done against a really good horse, was impressive. With his spot in the Derby starting gate secure, he will not need to win the showdown in the Florida Derby to make it to Louisville as one of the main factors, but on the other hand, I don't want to see him drubbed by a pair of faster horses either. Finishing up full of run will be just fine. [Next Race - Florida Derby March 30]

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron-Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Edward Plesa - This might be the rags to riches story that so many will be looking for on Derby Day. He probably will take a lot of hunch bettors money because of his name alone. Those factors aside, he may also be the fastest horse of the crop. His two wins this year were nothing short of excellent, and he continues to impress in the morning over in the relative obscurity of Calder. The Florida Derby not only presents an interesting challenge in that he will have to run down Shanghai Bobby before bracing for the late run of Orb, but it should also give him a real idea of what he needs to do if success in the Derby is to be expected. [Next Race - Florida Derby March 30]

4. Revolutionary (War Pass-Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Todd Pletcher – It seems like a long time ago that this beautifully bred WinStar runner was turning in one of the more interesting performances of the year in the Wither Stakes. That day he lived up to his expectations, despite only narrowly winning against a marginal field, because of the myriad of troubles he overcame to get the victory. His race on Saturday in the Louisiana Derby should tell us a great deal about just how good he really is. The Fair Grounds field will be big and talented, so he will need to be at his best to win. If he does, he becomes one of the favorites on the First Saturday in May. [Next Race - Louisiana Derby March 30]




8. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday-Steelin', by Orientate) Todd Pletcher - It is almost time for the biggest test of his career after two. We know that the juvenile champion is not invincible, not that anyone ever thought he was, but he's a horse that deserves more credit than he has been getting. Like many, I've both admired and questioned him from the very beginning. A most deserving champion at two, he will need to prove that he can stay above the late-developers, while also prove himself at classic distances. That task may seem daunting, but his first race of 2013 was actually a step in the right direction. Much will be answered in a most intriguing edition of the Florida Derby on Saturday. [Next Race - Florida Derby March 30]

9. Oxbow (Awesome Again-Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) D. Wayne Lukas – He dances every dance, like many in the Lukas barn do, and he is beginning to fire each time. I like that he is now demonstrating the ability to rate off the pace just a little, but on the flip side, he did have every opportunity to win both the Risen Star and the Rebel, and could not quite make it to the wire first. That being said, I like his breeding for the ten furlongs, and I believe in him a bit more with each passing race. He should be one of the one's to beat in the Arkansas Derby, and will come to Louisville battle tested. [Next Race - Arkansas Derby April 13]

11. Normandy Invasion (Tapit-Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Chad Brown – It seems like the Remsen Stakes is becoming many pundits race to stay away from. While it may not have been the greatest field in the world, I still see plenty of upside in this one. His sustained rally at nine furlongs was a fine way to end 2012, and while he could only muster a 5th place finish in his seasonal debut, the Risen Star effort was good enough to believe that with expected improvement, he can make some noise in Louisville. The Wood will be a tough one thanks to Verrazano and Vyjack, but a strong rally will send him off to the Derby in with a chance. [Next Race - Wood Memorial April 6]


13. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid-Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Bob Baffert – Another promising colt from the Gary and Mary West contingent. Although he has not been winning, he has been improving with each race, including a very solid effort when 2nd in the Risen Star last out. I'm still not sure if he is fast enough to win on the First Saturday in May, but he is bred to run all day, and any further improvement makes him a most intriguing prospect to run a big ten furlongs at Churchill Downs. [Next Race - Louisiana Derby March 30]


