Champagne: Singling twice in Wednesday's Saratoga Pick 5

There are two horses in Wednesday’s late Pick 5 at Saratoga that figure to be very short prices. I’m singling them, but that does not mean I think this is an easy road. Far from it, in fact, as singling one or both of those horses is likely imperative in order to allow for at least one punching of the “ALL” button.

 

My ticket costs the odd amount of $112.50, and I’ve surrounded my singles with one “ALL” and two instances where I go five-deep. Here’s how I’ll play the Wednesday sequence:

 

Race 6: Maiden special weight (2-year-olds, NY-bred, 1 1/16 M, turf), 3:30 p.m. ET

 

We kick things off with a baby race, and your opinion of this race likely centers around how much you trust #3 ASTORIA KITTEN. The first-time starter will likely go favored, and she’s bred to be a good one, but debuting going two turns is a tall order.

 

In addition to that one, I’ll also use #4 MORE THAN SILVER, #6 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS, #9 KISS AND RUN, and #10 MAZAL EIGHTEEN. I find More Than Silver and Devils Rendezvous very interesting at their likely prices. Both debuted on dirt but are bred to love the grass, and their uninteresting first efforts will likely mean they’ll provide some value.

 

Race 7: Bolton Landing S. (2-year-old fillies, 5 1/2 F, turf), 4:02 p.m. ET

 

#5 KIMARI will be a popular single, and for good reason. She romped in her debut before falling a head short in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Anything close to either effort will mean this field is fighting for second. If she doesn’t win, I lose, and I imagine many others will be ripping up their tickets, too.

 

Race 8: Claiming (older horses, 7F), 4:34 p.m. ET

 

A lot of what I said about Kimari applies to #7 ALLURED, who’s a 3-5 favorite on the morning line. He hasn’t run since February, and I can envision some playing against him, but he ran several big races before going to the sidelines and has been gelded since his last outing. This is by far the weakest group he’s ever run against, and something less than his usual effort likely still puts him ahead by a comfortable margin at the wire.

 

Race 9: Claiming (older horses, 1 1/16 M, turf), 5:06 p.m. ET

 

In a stark contrast to the prior two races, I don’t have a clue who wins this one. Several live horses drew horribly for this event, and that could open things up for a price. As a result, I’m hitting the “ALL” button and using the nine remaining betting interests (following the early, early scratch of #5 ARMAMENT).

 

I’m pulling for a price, and some of the longer shots seem live. We’re going to need one of them in order for this to pay much, but I think there’s potential to get some separation in this spot.

 

Race 10: Starter allowance (older fillies/mares, 5 1/2 F, turf), 5:38 p.m. ET

 

Those with deep pockets may very well want to buy this race, too. I’m going five-deep, and I hope that’s enough.

 

My top pick is a bit of a price. That’s #8 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS, who didn’t have a great trip last time out but ran well two and four back going short on turf. Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, and I think she’ll be running well late. She’s 8-1 on the morning line, and that price hits me as an overlay.

 

I’ll also use #1 A DIXIE TWISTER, #2 MORISSETTE, #9 QUESTEQ, and #12 SUBSIDIARY. It’s a fascinating race that could unfold a number of different ways, so it’s tough to single or go narrow with any real confidence.

 

The ticket:

 

R6: 3,4,6,9,10

R7: 5

R8: 7

R9: ALL

R10: 1,2,8,9,12

 

225 Bets = $112.50.

 

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