Keys to handicapping the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

Keys to handicapping the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
Photo: Candice Chavez/Eclipse Sportswire

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf has historically been an easier race to handicap than its male counterpart. Betting the top-three favorites has generally resulted in on-the-board placings. In 2014, the top-betting choices completed the trifecta.

Notes about Del Mar

At only 919 feet, the Del Mar stretch is the shortest of all the current Breeders' Cup host tracks. For comparison, Santa Anita is 990 feet, and Lone Star is 950 feet. The shorter stretch gives horses that are closer to the lead the advantage. 

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at a glance

All stats are for the last decade (2011 – 2020)

Division Debut: 2008

Key Race Prep Winners

Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1) — Discoveries (IRE)

Natalma Stakes (G1) — Wild Beauty (GB)

Rockfel Stakes  (G2) — Hello You (IRE)

Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) — Zellie (FR)

Jessamine (G2) — California Angel

Miss Grillo (G2) — Consumer Spending


Payouts

Average win payout: $13.94

Lowest: $3.20 Newspaperofrecord (IRE) (2018)

Highest: $29.60 Sharing (2019)

Favorite

30 percent win

20 percent in the money

Last to win:  Newspaperofrecord (IRE) (2018)        

Del Mar in 2017: Favorite Best Performance finished second.

Second Favorite

10 percent win

20 percent in the money

Last to win: Rushing Fall (2017)

Post position

Post 3 — two winners

Post 4 — two winners

Post 5 — two winners

Post 11 — two winners

Post 6, 8 — one each

Rail: The rail is the kiss of death. One finished second, the rest were sixth or worse.

Winning style – determined by position at the half-mile

2 Pacesetters — wired the field.

0 Presser/setter —  within a half-length of the pacesetter.

5 Presser — one to four lengths behind the pacesetter.

3 Closer — five or more lengths behind the pacesetter.

Del Mar in 2017: Rushing Fall was wide the entire way, was in eight at the half-mile pole, four lengths off the pacesetter, and closed six wide through the stretch.

Previous Starts

4 winners were undefeated.

5 winners had two previous starts.

2 winners had three previous starts.

2 winners had four previous starts.

1 winner had five previous starts.

Prep Races

9 winners won their final prep.

3 winners prepped in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2)

2 winners prepped in the Jessamine Stakes (G2)

1 winner prepped in the Natalma Stakes (G1)

1 winner prepped in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1)

1 winner prepped in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1)

1 winner prepped in the Fillies Mile (G1)

1 winner prepped in the Selima Stakes

Del Mar in 2017

Winner Rushing Fall prepped in the Jessamine Stakes (G2)

Second-place finisher Best Performance prepped in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2)

Third-place finisher September prepped in the Fillies Mile (G1)

Europeans

European races are timed differently than those in the US and Canada. In Europe, they are timed from the gate, and track configurations vary widely.

In the last ten years, European horses have a record of 44: 2-4-4 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Irish-trained horses have finished in the money six of the last ten years.

Trainers

This is Chad Brown's world, and we are just living in it. Brown dominated the Juvenile Fillies Turf between 2014-2018, winning four straight. He has six wins in total. 

Aidan O'Brien has a 15-0-3-0 record in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. 

Jockeys

Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr., and Florent Geroux have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf twice each.



Meet Laurie Ross


 HRN Pedigree Analyst 

 Handicapper 

 Published Author

 Pedigree Research/Consultation/Sales 

 ThoroFan Board Member

 Member – NTWAB


Through hands-on work at barns, I learned valuable lessons about Thoroughbred conformation, gait, and temperament and later worked withThoroughbred rescue/re-train organizations. I have committed my passion for horses to the intensive study of pedigree and breeding theory for the last 20 years. 


I support clients with all aspects of pedigree/breeding analysis, research, sales, catalogue review, and recommendations on claims or private sales. Clients include national leading owners, racing/breeding syndicates, the little guy with one mare, and everyone in between. 10-20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue & retraining groups. Check out my website, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds, and the IMTBreds blog.

I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping, and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic, please contact me. 

Twitter: @IMTBreds
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LinkedIn: Laurie Ross

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