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2013 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile - Watch List

Super Ninety Nine, trained by Bob Baffert, exercises in preparation for the upcoming Breeders Cup at Santa Anita Park on October 30, 2012.
Today's maiden/allowance winners could become tomorrow's latest sensation on the Kentucky Derby trail. each month leading up to the Kentucky Derby, we'll take a closer look at the race records and pedigrees of twelve intriguing colts who are galloping under the radar. Many of them are slated to make their next start in a stakes race.

BRADESTER (Lion Heart - Grandestofall, by Grand Slam)
Race Record: 3-2-1-0 ($66,100)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Bradester caught attention with a 1 ¾ length allowance win over a full field of ten promising colts traveling 1 1/16 miles. The third place finisher, Cerro, came back to wire the field at 1 1/8 miles by 2 ½ lengths. Bradester's pedigree is a bit light for Classic distances, although he might handle 1 1/8 miles. His pedigree is also rather modest. However his third dam, Zealous Connection foaled the multiple stakes winning veterans Here's Zealous, There's Zealous and She's Zealous. Bradester is nominated to the Fountain of Youth (G-2) Feb. 23.

CERRO (Mr. Greeley - Ballette (IRE), by Giant's Causeway)
Race Record: 5-2-0-1 ($46,125)
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Owned/trained by the connections of Animal Kingdom, Cerro wired the field at 1 1/8 miles by 2 ½ lengths in an allowance race at Gulfstream. The Irish-bred colt is a half brother to stakes placed Sachem Spirit (by Mr. Greeley). There is little blacktype in the first two generations of Cerro's pedigree, however his third dam Sex Appeal produced the Champions El Gran Senor and Try My Best. This family also gave us Breeders' Cup Mile hero Domedriver, United Nations hero Chinchon and Japanese Group 1 winner Fusaichi Pandora. In an odd route to the Kentucky Derby, Cerro will contest the Palm Beach Stakes (G-3) on March 3 and then the Spiral Stakes (G-3) on March 23.

DEMONIC ( Bernardini - Sincerely, by Meadowlake)
Race Record: 1-1-0-0 ($33,600)
Trainer: John Sadler
Making his first start a memorable one, Demonic took the long way around the oval, racing three and four wide the whole way behind horses. Going widest of all around the far turn, he powered his way up to the leaders to prevail in a blanket finish by a head over Tiz The Truth. That one came back to beat maidens in his next start by 7 ¾ lengths. A $400K Keeneland September Yearling, Demonic is a half brother to multiple G-2 placed sprinter Silver Edition (by Silver Deputy). Their dam Sincerely won the Delaware Oaks (G-2) at 1 1/16 miles as well as the Go For Wand Stakes. Demonic's second dam was also a stakes winner and his third dam was 1967 Champion Three Year Old Filly Furl Sail. Demonic's pedigree for 1 ¼ miles is borderline. We'll likely see him compete in the San Felipe (G-2) on March 9.

DYNAMIC STRIKE (Smart Strike - Dynamic Deputy, by Deputy Minister)
Race Record: 4-3-0-0 ($90,600)
Trainer: Richard Small
Dynamic Strike has won his last three starts, including a one-length victory in the one mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel. He certainly has the pedigree to excel at 1 ¼ miles. His sire Smart Strike is an Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-Race. Dynamic Strike's dam is a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and she was second in the 1 ¼ mile Delaware Handicap (G-2). We may see him face stakes horses in New York to earn Derby Points in his next race.

ELMUTAHID ( Street Cry (IRE) - Alwajeeha, by Dixieland Band)
Race Record: 5-1-1-1 ($50,154)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, Elmutahidwon his maiden in his fifth start by 4 ¼ lengths. He is the first foal out of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (G-1) winner Alwajeeha and is by Street Cry, the sire of Kentucky Derby Champ Street Sense and the spectacular Zenyatta. Other than his multiple stakes winning dam, Elmutahid has little blacktype in the first two generations of his distaff family. Breeders' Cup Turf winner Dangerous Midge and Jim Dandy hero Scorpion are part of this distaff line. Elmutahid is bred to get 1 ¼ miles. We may see him jump directly into stakes competition in the Fountain of Youth (G-2) Feb. 23.

ELNAAWI ( Street Sense - Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) half to THAS
Race Record: 2-1-0-1 ($45,200)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Elnaawi won his maiden in his second attempt. During an eventful race, Elnaawi bumped at the start, raced three wide while pressing the pace and drew off to a four length victory going a mile. Elnaawi's pedigree may look familiar. He's a half brother to To Honor And Serve (by Bernardini), hero of the Cigar Mile (G-1) and 1 1/8 mile Woodward Stakes (G-1). Elnaawi has been training steadily at Belmont Park and is a candidate for the Gotham (March 3) or Wood Memorial (G-1).

ORB (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)
Race Record: 5-2-0-1 ($81,050)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Orb won his maiden last November by two lengths over a nice field that included Withers Stakes (G-3) victor Revolutionary. In his first start of the year, Orb came from off of the pace at Gulfstream Park to win an 1 1/8 mile allowance contest at Gulfstream Park. An additional furlong should suit Orb perfectly. He descends from the Phipps Family bred mare Shenanigans, dam of the legendary Ruffian. Closer up in the pedigree, Orb's second dam Mesabi Maiden won the 1 1/8 mile Black Eyed Susan Stakes (G-2) over the good mare Cara Rafaela, who would later foal Classic winner Bernardini. Orb is pointing for the Fountain of Youth (Feb. 23).

PALACE MALICE (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)
Race Record: 3-1-2-0 ($71,135)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Palace Malice generated some buzz at Satatoga with a 3 ½ length victory over maidens. Included in that field was Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint Champ Hightail. Palace Malice went to the sidelines for the rest of the year and surfaced in January with a good second place finish against optional claimers. He was beaten only 2 ¼ lengths and it was eight lengths back to the third place finisher. Palice Malice is from Horse of the Year Curlin's first crop. His dam won a stakes race over turf and she is a half sister to a stakes winning sprinter. We don't know how far Curlin's offspring will want to run, but Palace Malice has plenty of stamina through his female family. His damsire Royal Anthem was a long-winded turf router whose victories include the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Handicap (1 3/16 miles) and Canadian International (1 ½ miles). Now that he has a prep race under his girth, Palace Malice should be ready for stakes competition. The Pletcher team has indicated that Curlin's son will head to the Risen Star Stakes (Feb. 23).

PROUD STRIKE (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony)
Race Record: 3-1-1-1 ($36,180)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Proud Strike was an impressive 7 ½ Length maiden winner going 1 1/16 miles at the Fair Grounds in his third start. By Intermediate/Classic Chef-de-race Smart Strike out of a daughter of Kentucky Derby/Preakness hero Pleasant Colony, Proud Strike descends from a blue-blooded distaff line and is bred to relish 1 ¼ miles. He's a full brother to the multiple stakes veteran Pleasant Strike, winner of the Arlington Classic (G-3) at 1 1/6 miles over the turf. Two other full siblings, Curlinello and Desert Myth are stakes placed and a half sibling, Colonial Empress (by Empire Maker), is also stakes placed. Proud Strike traces his linage back to the Champion Handicap mare and blue hen Gallorette. This is the same distaff branch that foaled Horse of the Year Saint Liam, Irish Champion Filly Minstrella (Proud Strike's second dam), Del Mar Futurity hero Rolling Fog, and Mother Goose heroine Buster's Ready. We'll likely see Proud Strike in the Risen Star on February 23.

SUPER NINETY NINE (Pulpit - Exogenetic, by Unbridled's Song)
Race Record: 4-2-1-0 ($86,480)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Supper Ninety Nine gained ground and was beaten only ½ length in the Hollywood Prevue. Bred on the same Pulpit/Unbridled cross as Wood Memorial hero and popular sire Tapit, Super Ninety Nine has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles, but his pedigree is borderline for 1 1/4 miles. His half sister Elusive Horizon (by Elusive Quality) is a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. Their dam Exogenetic is a 3/4 sister to Exogenous (by Unbridled), winner of the Beldame and Gazelle Handicaps, both G-1 races. She also placed in the 1 1/4 mile Alabama Stakes and 1 1/2 mile CCA Oaks, as well as the 1 1/8 mile Mother Goose Stakes. All are G-1 races. Super Ninety Nine will contest the Southwest Stakes on February 18.

TIZ THE TRUTH( Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy)
Race Record: 3-1-1-0 ($45,150)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Another promising Baffert colt, Tiz The Truth put in a game run in his second start, only to lose by a head to Demonic. The son of Tiznow put it all together in his next start, beating a small group of maidens by 7 ¾ lengths in a one mile event. The wow factor isn't the number of lengths by which Tiz The Truth won. He ran his last quarter in :23.48, faster than the preceding two, (:24.09, :24.41). Tiz The Truth has a stamina over speed pedigree up close, however his second damsire Exclusive Native (sire of Affirmed and Genuine Risk) balances the speed contributed by French Deputy. Tiz The Truth is a half brother to Notional, winner of the Risen Star, (G-3), San Rafael (G-2) and Salvator Mile (G-2). Baffert isn't shy about running maidens back against stakes competition, so we may see Tiz the Truth take on winners in the San Felipe March 9.

TRANSPARENT ( Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song)
Race Record: 6-1-1-1 ($68,250)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
It took five rehearsals for the light bulb to go on, and Transparent won his maiden decisively in his sixth start. He powered home a 5 ¾ length winner traveling 1 mile 70 yards at Aqueduct. Transparent, a $725K Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling, has the pedigree to handle 1 ¼ miles. His young Horse of the Year sire has already produced winners at 1 ¼ miles and his son Stay Thirsty was second in the Belmont Stakes. Transparent's dam is a multiple graded stakes placed runner. She's also a half sister to the Grade 1 winning sprinter Street Boss (By Street Sense). Transparent could jump directly into stakes competition in the Gotham (March 2) or squeeze in an allowance race before tackling Grade 1 foes in the Wood Memorial.


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Older Comments about 2013 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile - Watch List...

I find it interesting that not only did Elmutahid finally win when stretched out to 9 furlongs for the first time, but he did so in his first start on dirt. Looks like he relished both the distance and the new surface. I'll have to give him another look for tomorrow's FOY.
So far, I'm watching four horse for my derby pick: Tiz the Truth, Verrazano, Proud Strike and Violence.

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Meet Laurie Ross


I've been around horses for most of my life, working in racing stables as a hot walker and exercise rider in my teenage years, and later as a volunteer with rescued and retired racehorses. I became interested in pedigree when the sons and daughters of my favorite horses started their racing careers.   


For more than a decade, I've passionately studied pedigree, how it applies to handicapping and breeding theories. In 2010, I joined Horse Racing Nation as their Pedigree Analyst, focusing on juvenile stakes winners, Triple Crown contenders and first crop sires from a handicapping perspective.   


In 2011, I accepted the role of South Florida Coordinator and Advisory Board Member for the national non-profit Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association (ThoroFan). Working closely with Gulfstream Park management and other race fans, we created a ThoroFan Chapter at Gulfstream Race Track. Our main project is assisting Thoroughbred rescue and re-training groups.


I continue to maintain my website Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds and blog of the same name. As a pedigree consultant, I specialize in assisting small to mid-size breeding/training operations with broodmare breeding reports, sales catalog analysis and recommendations on claims and private sales. 10 - 20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue and retraining groups.
I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic please contact me at lross@horseracingnation.com.

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