Weekend Plays: Selections for the Woodbine Mile Pick 4

Weekend Plays: Selections for the Woodbine Mile Pick 4
Photo: Michael Burns

Even though Woodbine Racetrack offers 20-cent multi-race wagers, the minimum payoffs are sometimes more generous than bettors might think at first glance.

On the Queen’s Plate card last Saturday, the 20-cent late Pick 4 paid $373.33 and the Pick 6 paid $4,614.68. Best of all, the 20-cent Pick 5 ending in Race 12 resulted in a massive $12,447.41 payoff with help from longshots Rideforthecause and Mighty Heart.  

With that in mind, here is analysis of Woodbine's Saturday Pick 4 starting with the Singspiel Stakes (G3) on Saturday. The Woodbine Mile is included in the sequence.  

Woodbine Race 7: Singspiel Stakes (G3)

Nakamura enters as the class of the field off his third-place finish in the Elkhorn Stakes (G3) two starts ago. He proceeded to run a mild third in a Saratoga optional claimer, but even that effort might win against these.

Jungle Fighter tried to mow down Uncle Bull in a local allowance race and settled for second. In retrospect, Uncle Bull had the benefit of a slow pace with early fractions of 24.68 and 48.18, allowing him to hold on late. If nothing else, Jungle Fighter gets credit for outkicking Armistice Day in the stretch, even if he could not catch the leader.

Say the Word won an optional claimer at Saratoga. As suggested with Nakamura, a good optional claiming field at Saratoga equals a typical Grade 3 at Woodbine.

Skywire brings good form after a second in the Seagram Cup (G3) and a win in the Eclipse Stakes (G2), although both of those races came on synthetic.

Selections: 1,5,9,10

Woodbine Race 8: Starter Allowance

Trading Bay just broke her maiden, but only a small step forward off that 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure is needed to win this race.

Takota faded to sixth in a local allowance optional claimer, losing by 14 ¾ lengths. The drop down to this starter allowance is supposed to help though. She owns useful tactical speed, which will allow her to adjust to the given pace.

Silver Dahlia closed well for third in a local turf starter allowance. She broke her maiden over the synthetic course last November. A fast pace will help her.

Let’s Have Fun only managed to close for seventh in the same starter allowance as Silver Dahila’s third-place finish. However, she only lost by 3 ½ lengths and might improve on the return to synthetic. Notice she broke her maiden on the synthetic course in June with a 91 on TimeformUS, and then ran second in a synthetic starter allowance with the same speed figure. The numbers went down once she ran on turf.

Selections: 4,6,7,9

Woodbine Race 9: Woodbine Mile (G1)

The cost-cutting leg is in the feature race.  

Shirl’s Speight brings an abundance of talent to this race after impressive runs to break his maiden by eight lengths and win the Marine Stakes (G3) easily by over two lengths. The main concern is whether he needs more development before tackling older horses in his third career start. In his favor, this is not the strongest open Grade 1.  

March to the Arch enjoys Woodbine with a 2 for 2 record on the turf course, and a 3 for 4 record at Woodbine overall counting his synthetic starts in 2018. He shows a big 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure for taking the local King Edward Stakes (G2). Is that number an outlier or the new norm? In 22 previous starts, his old high TimeformUS figure was a 123.

Selections

A: 3

B: 1

Woodbine Race 10: Woodbine Cares Stakes

Illegal Smile figures to improve on the cut back to five furlongs after fading in her last two starts for trainer Wesley Ward. She did hold third in the 6 ½-furlong Catch a Glimpse Stakes, giving this filly some local turf stakes experience as a 2-year-old maiden.

Souper Munnings broke her maiden on synthetic with an 85 on TimeformUS, a competitive number relative to this field. Cutting back, she is likely to convert to a stalker role rather than setting the pace, which might help if the pace gets too fast.

Chatelet ran second after contesting the pace in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Colonial Downs. She might improve off her 85 TimeformUS figure too. The only problem is the projected fast pace.

Dirty Dangle broke her maiden by a head in a five-furlong synthetic race over Souper Munnings. TimeformUS only gave Dirty Dangle an 80 for the debut victory, but she could move forward in her second start.

Selections: 2,4,5,7


Meet Reinier Macatangay

My first time at the racetrack came as a 5-year-old kid at Santa Anita Park. For most of my younger life, that was the only track I attended other the occasional visit to Hollywood Park. 

Years later, after graduating California State University, Stanislaus with an English MA, I began writing for Lady and the Track. From late 2014-2016, my articles were seen on a weekly basis and covered handicapping, interviews with well-known racing personalities, fashion and more. 

The handicapping style I use concentrates on pace analysis. Some horses are compromised by the pace. Others are helped. Handicappers just starting out cannot easily see how pace affects the finish, so with this blog, I hope to help those unsure of how to apply pace into their handicapping and post-race analysis. 

On an unrelated note, I enjoy video games and attending anime or comic-book conventions. I am currently based in Kentucky, but spend a lot of time traveling between there and California.

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