Weekend Plays: K P Dreamin can rebound in the Starlet Stakes

December 06, 2019 01:44pm
As standard practice, you'll see public handicappers give out three or four horses for each race. In most cases, there's not one definitive answer as to who can win.

Despite its small field, Saturday's Grade 1, $300,00 Starlet Stakes fits the description. Tthere are two top horses and obvious choices in Donna Veloce and Bast in the Los Alamitos feature for juvenile fillies, but K P Dreamin holds an outside chance to lead off these weekend plays.

Los Alamitos Race 7: Starlet Stakes (G1)

Without a doubt, Donna Veloce and Bast are best in this race. But their abilities are well known, and prices for them will be low.

But in this game, the unforeseen happens all the time. If bad trips occur for those two favorites, K P Dreamin might capitalize and upset this field.

First of all, cross out her Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies effort, as she quit around the turn while finishing eighth. For some horses, Breeders' Cup and Triple Crown races are outliers, as they present extra challenges.

Two starts ago, K P Dreamin finished third by 3 ¼ lengths in the Chandelier Stakes (G1) won by Bast, and that is likely a better indicator of her talents. Bast returned to run third in the Juvenile Fillies, and it is not logical that K P Dreamin is 20+ lengths worse given their closer margin in the prep.

Now, K P Dreamin gets away from the quirky Santa Anita surface, plus the smaller field could help her. On paper, K P Dreamin is at least better than Bob Baffert maiden winner Gingham, as she beat her on Aug. 29 by 1 ¼ lengths at Del Mar. Yet, Gingham is 6-1 on the morning line, while K P Dreamin is 12-1.

K P Dreamin needs some luck, but she has a chance and offers value in a small field. 

Los Alamitos Race 5: Optional Claimer

With the 3-year-old colt Rogallo, cross out his races longer than six furlongs, including the Nov. 1 effort at Santa Anita when he finished eighth in an optional claimer. The crowded 14-horse field made it difficult for him.

Rogallo also flopped twice trying to route on turf and missed the board in his lone dirt route attempt, too. Those races are irrelevant.

On Sept. 28, Rogallo competed in a six-furlong optional claimer and turned in a solid effort, closing for second on a speed-biased Santa Anita surface to only lose by a head. He lost to Comical Ghost and beat Candy Cornell.

Now, Rogallo cuts back to six furlongs again, and the favorite is a weak Baffert-trained gelding named Speed Pass, who broke his maiden locally.

With a clean trip, expect Rogallo to fire this time.

Aqueduct Race 6: Go For Wand Stakes (G3)

Clearly, Spiced Perfection is the best horse in this race. She turned in a fine performance in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint when fourth.

If Spiced Perfection isn't at her best again, though, Our Super Nova could capitalize with her sharp form at a mild price.

Our Super Nova won the Nov. 10 New York Stallion Series Stakes by 4 ½ lengths over a decent field while overcoming a slow pace. She also lost the Empire Distaff Handicap at Belmont by a head at a one-turn mile.

Before that, Our Super Nova won an optional claimer off a three-month layoff.

In a paceless race, TimeformUS' Pace Projector puts Our Super Nova in third, giving her the opportunity to strike first if Spiced Perfection folds.

Again, stranger things have happened in horse racing before.

Aqueduct Race 7: Maiden

Hedonistic only finished fourth in his career debut, but there are some excuses. For one, the first out is usually a learning experience.

Side comments note some minor trouble, including getting bumped at the start and altering course in the stretch run. For a first-time starter, those types of obstacles are difficult to overcome and yet he still rallied.

Besides the trip, Hedonistic ran on a sloppy course.

Hedonistic's dam, Kateri, is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup winner Bulletin and Tiz Miz Sue, a winner of over $1 million in her successful career.

With the first start out of the way, Hedonistic owns the right to improve.

Tampa Bay Race 9: Sandpiper Stakes

Two Sixty
set a fast pace in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies before folding quickly to last and losing by 43 lengths. Cross the effort out.

Now, Two Sixty cuts back to a six-furlong sprint against ungraded company. She also draws a cozy outside post, where she can stalk the expected pace fillies Lucrezia and Campy Cash this time instead of setting the pace inside.

Two starts ago, Two Sixty won the $400,000 Florida Sire My Dear Girl Stakes at Gulfstream around two turns. But Two Sixty is a capable sprinter too. Back in June, she broke her maiden at 4 ½ furlongs and caught a sloppy track in her next start when third in the Florida Sire Desert Vixen Stakes.

Even at short odds, Two Sixty is the choice.


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Meet Reinier Macatangay

My first time at the racetrack came as a 5-year-old kid at Santa Anita Park. For most of my younger life, that was the only track I attended other the occasional visit to Hollywood Park. 

Years later, after graduating California State University, Stanislaus with an English MA, I began writing for Lady and the Track. From late 2014-2016, my articles were seen on a weekly basis and covered handicapping, interviews with well-known racing personalities, fashion and more. 

The handicapping style I use concentrates on pace analysis. Some horses are compromised by the pace. Others are helped. Handicappers just starting out cannot easily see how pace affects the finish, so with this blog, I hope to help those unsure of how to apply pace into their handicapping and post-race analysis. 

On an unrelated note, I enjoy video games and attending anime or comic-book conventions. I am currently based in Kentucky, but spend a lot of time traveling between there and California.

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