Sunday play: Figure bettors may ignore live Adirondack contender

Sunday play: Figure bettors may ignore live Adirondack contender
Photo: NYRA

With only one low speed figure on record, Streaming Now might not seem fast enough to contend in the Grade 3, $200,000 Adirondack Stakes on Sunday at Saratoga. But using speed figures to handicap 2-year-old races at this early point is tricky because these young horses could improve rapidly.

Click here for Saratoga entries and results.

Despite the low figure, there are four good reasons to bet Streaming Now.

To start off, Streaming Now gave the impression she was capable of running a lot faster in her successful debut. She won a maiden special weight at Ellis Park easily by 3 3/4 lengths while jockey Gerardo Corrales only shook the reins a few times in midstretch to keep the filly’s mind on business. For the win, she earned a 75 on both TimeformUS and Brisnet. 

Given the ease in which Streaming Now won, it is not fair to say she can only run a 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure or a 75 BRIS Speed Rating. Visually, this filly is capable of moving faster than she did on June 16.  

In addition, the three fillies who completed the superfecta behind Streaming Now improved their TimeformUS figure by 18 points or more next time. For example, the runner-up Lady Moscato moved from a 67 to a 91 while finishing second in a Saratoga maiden special weight on July 13. That is a 24-point difference.

The third-place Pinotslilgirl went up 18 points from a 65 to 83, and Savannamarie went from a 62 to 84 to improve by 22 points next time.

Even though those fillies did not win in their second starts, they all ran well enough to believe Streaming Now beat a decent group in that June 16 race.

For the third reason, Streaming Now sports a nice pedigree with the sire Into Mischief and the Warrior’s Reward mare One True Kiss as her dam. One True Kiss is the half-sister to Shancelot, who ran second in the 2019 Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Before those two races, Shancelot won the Amsterdam Stakes (G2) by an amazing 12 1/2 lengths.

Plus, Streaming Now attracts Joel Rosario for this race. According to TimeformUS, Rosario and trainer Paulo Lobo did not team up together at any point over the past year, which makes Rosario’s presence here a positive.

Rosario likely does not waste his time when choosing his mounts, especially with trainers he does not ride for. If Rosario chooses to spend his time on Streaming Now for a trainer who is not one of the “corporate trainers,” then he probably sees the talent in this filly despite the low speed figure.

If Streaming Now can remain at reasonable odds, she is the choice.

As for the contenders with big speed figures, they are Here U Come Again and Copper Em, and they do run for famous trainers. The former filly hails from the Brad Cox barn, while the latter filly trains under Steve Asmussen.

Here U Come Again broke her maiden in impressive fashion at Ellis Park on July 7 by 2 1/4 lengths over the favorite Hot Beach in second. Hot Beach had finished 7 1/4 lengths on Pinotslilgirl back in third. For the big maiden win, Here U Come Again earned a 102 on TimeformUS and a 90 on BRIS.

Copper Em broke her maiden by 4 1/4 lengths at Ellis Park on June 30. She earned a 100 on TimeformUS in the process and also a 90 on BRIS.

Those two fillies can also win, but Streaming Now is probably on their level without the right speed figure. The immediate move to test Streaming Now at this level off the easy maiden win is a good sign of confidence from Lobo.

The main bet is a win bet, while the two fillies with high speed figures are usable on top in a backup exacta wheel with Streaming Now in second. Of course, all three fillies also fit as viable options in longer multi-race wagers.

Win: 8 (6-1 or longer)

Exacta wheel: 3,9 with 8

Meet Reinier Macatangay

My first time at the racetrack came as a 5-year-old kid at Santa Anita Park. For most of my younger life, that was the only track I attended other the occasional visit to Hollywood Park. 

Years later, after graduating California State University, Stanislaus with an English MA, I began writing for Lady and the Track. From late 2014-2016, my articles were seen on a weekly basis and covered handicapping, interviews with well-known racing personalities, fashion and more. 

The handicapping style I use concentrates on pace analysis. Some horses are compromised by the pace. Others are helped. Handicappers just starting out cannot easily see how pace affects the finish, so with this blog, I hope to help those unsure of how to apply pace into their handicapping and post-race analysis. 

On an unrelated note, I enjoy video games and attending anime or comic-book conventions. I am currently based in Kentucky, but spend a lot of time traveling between there and California.

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