Every dreamer who bets on horses wants to catch the next super long-shot winner of the Kentucky Derby, such as the two 50-1 shots Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009, or Country House at 65-1 in 2019. Sometimes Country House’s win is hard to remember because it came via disqualification. Regardless, it counts the same.
Unfortunately, casual bettors now are more likely to play horses above 30-1 and bring down most of the longer prices on decent runners. Plus, the point system made the chances of a pace meltdown decrease, which in turn makes it harder for a long shot closer to find the right pace setup. Most winning long shots are closers.
With the right pace scenario and good trip, is there a horse above 30-1 who could pull off the upset in this year’s Kentucky Derby?
Perhaps one super long shot capable of winning is O Besos.
O Besos is an improving Orb colt with rising TimeformUS Speed Figures. In his most recent prep race, he made a closing bid in the Louisiana Derby (G2) to finish third, two lengths behind the winner Hot Rod Charlie and a head behind Midnight Bourbon in second. For his effort, O Besos ran a 113 on TimeformUS, which is acceptable in this Derby.
First of all, two lengths is not a huge margin in dirt racing. Given these are young horses trying 1 1/4 miles for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, O Besos could make up those two lengths and more, depending on the pace setup and trip and whether he wants the extra distance.;
Watching the replay, moving inside potentially hampered O Besos late.
Most horses want to rally in the clear. In O Besos’ situation, he had nowhere to move forward with Hot Rod Charlie a few lengths ahead.
Yet, O Besos came forward enough to almost come on even terms with Midnight Bourbon. Afterwards, O Besos put in a nice gallop out going just past the winner
Although O Besos is potentially compromised by pace or traffic, the significantly higher odds are supposed to compensate bettors for those flaws.
According to Oddschecker, Hot Rod Charlie is trading around 8-1 to 10-1 overseas, while Midnight Bourbon is currently 25-1. O Besos sits higher at 33-1 in the same markets, with his highest available odds at 50-1. Think about this for a second. For a horse who ran only two lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie last time, bettors could get 30-1 to 50-1 on O Besos when live wagering occurs.
One other question is whether O Besos handles 1 1/4 miles. His pedigree is not easy to read on the dam side, although his sire Orb obviously won the 2013 Kentucky Derby. For what it is worth, the damsire Soto won the 2003 West Virginia Derby (G3) at nine furlongs and a close second in the nine-furlong Super Derby (G2) to Ten Most Wanted as well
O Besos probably can handle 1 1/4 miles. Again, though, an unexpected fast pace would help his situation, as well as a clever ride that keeps him clear of traffic. Whoever rides O Besos might want to study Country House’s trip and try to use some speed to stay within range. An Orb-like win from the clouds is not impossible, but it brings up the higher possibility of traffic and subjects him more to the pace setup.
In any case, the likely top Derby selection of this blog is Rock Your World. Whether that pick is finalized depends on the post position draw and other final entries.
Assuming O Besos enters, taking a stab on him is not the worst idea. At a minimum, this is a closer to throw into the trifecta or superfecta at long odds.