5 Breeders' Cup 2019 horses to bet back in their next race

November 05, 2019 02:12pm
With the 2019 Breeders' Cup over, there's a good opportunity to point out some losing horses to consider betting next time they're at the race. In considering horses for this list, I looked for troubled trips or a placing under unusual circumstances of the championships, such as an inexperienced 2-year-old getting pushed on to a bigger stage.

Give extra consideration to Breeders' Cup horses starting sooner rather than later, as a layoff could mean the horse needs a prep race upon return.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Donna Veloce

There was some surprise as to Donna Veloce's status as the morning line favorite. Previously, she had only competed in one race, an easy maiden event at Santa Anita where she romped by 9 ¼ lengths.

But Donna Veloce backed up the line, which is supposed to predict how to public will bet rather than the actual results. The inexperienced filly started as the 2-1 favorite and ran like a professional.

Granted, she finished second. But there is more than one positive to note.



For one, she ate dirt behind the leading trio and waited patiently.

Around the turn, Donna Veloce tipped outside and took the lead. She attempted to draw clear when the more experienced British Idiom ranged up alongside her. But to Donna Veloce's credit, she fought back.

Donna Veloce became a little tired at the end and lost by a neck. For a filly with only one start though before the Breeders' Cup, she ran great and has every reason to move forward.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Anneau d'Or

While Donna Veloce started at 2-1, bettors were less inclined to back Anneau d'Or off one start at Golden Gate, leaving him at 28-1.

In his dirt debut at the Breeders' Cup, he took up the tracking position in third, right behind the pacesetter Storm the Court and Eight Rings.



Around the turn, Anneau d'Oro responded and even briefly held the lead. Storm the Court fought back though on the inside and beat him.

Obviously, Anneau d'Oro's future is bright on multiple surfaces. If trainer Blaine Wright elects to run him at Golden Gate Fields, the price won't be right. But if he shows up again on a bigger circuit, bettors may choose not to respect a high-odds trifecta finish in the Juvenile and dismiss this colt.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: Eddie Haskell

This gelding is a less obvious choice to make the list. But he deserves another shot after a troubled trip in an overcrowded Turf Sprint.

According to chart comments, Eddie Haskell steadied twice.

Looking back at the replay, he steadied once shortly after the break and another time turning for home. He never got a chance to unwind.



In a five-furlong turf race, minor trouble is more costly. A horse could more easily recover in a route by getting back into the race flow and regaining momentum. Short turf sprints simply end too quickly.

Considering half of the Turf Sprint field will head back east, Eddie Haskell will not face another 12-horse field anytime soon. Assuming father time has not caught up, in a normal Santa Anita turf sprint he is bound to contend.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Omaha Beach

Since Omaha Beach is slated to retire soon, the connections are expected to give him two more shots in the upcoming Malibu Stakes (G1) and Pegasus World Cup (G1).

Omaha Beach ran second in the Dirt Mile, but he received a trip different than what Mike Smith gave him in the spring Derby prep races, his last two-turn trips.

In both the Rebel Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1), Smith let Omaha Beach roll up front immediately after the first turn.

But in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Omaha Beach lagged 8 ½ lengths back.



Eventually, Omaha Beach began to pick off horses. He made his move too late, though, as Spun to Run continued to kick in the stretch after setting the pace.

Omaha Beach benefits from an aggressive ride. If he is in front turning for home, it is difficult for any horse to beat him in a head-to-head fight. Expect him to improve in the Malibu.

As a side note, Midnight Bisou received almost the same trip under Smith in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. But unlike Omaha Beach and his two pending starts before probable stud duty, Midnight Bisou will probably get some rest before returning at short odds.
  
Truthfully, there are two troubled-trip horses to consider betting off the Mile: True Valour and Lucullan. But the latter runner is already a respected enough horse.

In contrast, True Valour only rounded into his best American form recently with wins in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3) and City of Hope Mile (G2).

Despite the improvement, bettors dismissed True Valour at 21-1 in this spot.

True Valour followed the leaders in fourth for most of the early stages. In the stretch run, he seemed poise to make some kind of move.

Unfortuantely, True Valour got stuck behind a wall of horses.



He tried to fit through a non-existent hole between El Tormenta and Hey Gaman, but Drayden Van Dyke was forced to take him back slightly.

Van Dyke urged him again late, but the wall had not cleared yet.

Assuming True Valour remains in training, he is one to watch.


 

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Meet Reinier Macatangay

My first time at the racetrack came as a 5-year-old kid at Santa Anita Park. For most of my younger life, that was the only track I attended other the occasional visit to Hollywood Park. 

Years later, after graduating California State University, Stanislaus with an English MA, I began writing for Lady and the Track. From late 2014-2016, my articles were seen on a weekly basis and covered handicapping, interviews with well-known racing personalities, fashion and more. 

The handicapping style I use concentrates on pace analysis. Some horses are compromised by the pace. Others are helped. Handicappers just starting out cannot easily see how pace affects the finish, so with this blog, I hope to help those unsure of how to apply pace into their handicapping and post-race analysis. 

On an unrelated note, I enjoy video games and attending anime or comic-book conventions. I am currently based in Kentucky, but spend a lot of time traveling between there and California.

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