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Breeders' Cup 2017

HRN Original Blog:
The Kentucky Derby Post

KY Derby Points for Uncaptured and Overanalyze

The G3 Iroquois Stakes on October 28th has now become a race with serious Kentucky Derby implications. It is not a prep race within the Kentucky Derby qualification system but it may eventually be looked at as one of the most crucial stepping stone races for two contenders. In their first appearance since, Uncaptured and Overanalyze returned over the weekend. Although they would not be facing each other they still shared something in common - Grade 2 preps.

But that wasn’t all. The pursuit for what is now the most important reward is going to be fun to watch. As we saw and will again many more times, 2013 Kentucky Derby points aren’t always easy to score. Instead it may take an all out battle to the wire. Forced to hang tough the most notable similarity they shared on Saturday was their position when their pictures were taken. The challengers dueled but these two came away with the win and the 10 points.

Consequently what these thrilling wins also mean is that we’ll be keeping tabs on them over the course of the next few months. Nothing is certain but it looks like Overanalyze and Uncaptured are off to Florida for the winter and will not race again until the 3-yr-old season begins to heat up. But, before we get there let’s rewind and look at how they ended their Juvenile seasons on top.

We begin with Uncaptured, winner of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This Ontario Bred by Lion Heart and Captivating had already caught the eye of many before Saturday so his win only confirms that those eyes were on target. Trained by Mark Casse, Uncaptured sizzled like raw Canadian bacon as he opened up a perfect 4 for 4 at Woodbine. The wins led him to the Grey Stakes but it wasn’t his day. Instead he finished 5th and came back down to earth.

As expected, Owner John Oxley and Casse agreed to pass on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and began heading south. Churchill Downs became a very rewarding stop along the way and Uncaptured got his swagger back in the G3 Iroquois Stakes. Against a very tough G3 field he stalked before finding another level and put the field away by 5 ½ in the final furlong.

Back to my original point about how the Iroquois Stakes served as a pivotal point in his Juvenile season. Could he have won down the stretch in the Jockey Club Stakes without his Iroquois performance? Sure he could have but in my opinion it would have been much more difficult than it already was. Winning for horses isn’t any different than us sometimes. When you win in such convincing fashion ones confidence is bound to go up and the challenges that come next can be met with a much different response.

My conclusion is that the Iroquois win was the perfect set up for the stretch duel in the Jockey Club Stakes. Because he nailed it, Uncaptured should be looked at as a top 5 contender for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In some conversations he could be ranked as high as number 1 but there isn’t anything that I can argue with about that reasoning. Finally, the biggest thing that I like about this horse is that he ended the surface questions so early. Any horse that races more on Synthetic than dirt is always going to be looked at very carefully but none of that will be the case in the 3-yr-old season for Uncaptured. It turned out to be a great decision to head to Churchill Downs by his connections plus, it’s pretty cool that if he makes it to the starting gate on May 4th we’ll already know how he feels about the dirt.

Overanalyze, winner of the G2 Remsen Stakes. By Dixie Union and Unacloud, the KY bred colt broke his maiden in his career debut at Saratoga. Then it was time to move into a race against graded company. However, another Todd Pletcher horse named Shanghai Bobby owned the day in the G2 Hopeful Stakes and Overanalyze would have to wait for another. Next time out was it in the G2 Futurity at Belmont. That win got him going the right direction and took him to the G3 Iroquois.

Now here is where I believe there is a big difference as to why the Iroquois proved to be a fortunate stepping stone for Overanalyze. Mainly it has everything to do with his connections making a smart decision.

His 3rd place finish wasn’t that impressive. Because it wasn’t the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was most likely ruled immediately. Owner Mike Repole definitely prefers racing on the NYRA circuit but let’s not forget that Todd Pletcher is becoming pretty content with the Jockey Club Stakes. His first win was the sweetest because it became a staple for Super Saver en route to winning the roses. Things looked awfully familiar last year when Gemologist also won. Of course, Gemologist went a different direction in his 3-yr-old season but Pletcher has to like the race and wants to try to win again with a legit contender.

Both of his previous winners were owned by WinStar Farms and prefer to be racing in Kentucky but there’s one thing about the 2012 Iroquois Stakes that isn’t up for debate. Uncaptured dominated. Pletcher and Repole are smart enough to know what they saw and assume that Uncaptured would likely return for the Jockey Club. Based on that the choice was easy – head back to New York. Great choice, Overanalyze performed up to his expectations and benefited from leaving Churchill Downs.

My conclusion with Overanalyze is that he’ll move down to Florida and Palm Meadows Training Center with Pletcher and come out strong in his 3-yr-old season. In my opinion right now he has cracked the top ten contenders list but there isn’t enough for me to declare him the best in Pletchers’ barn. Shanghai Bobby has the edge but it will be interesting to see if that changes in 2013. Finally, there’s the Jockey question but I think that’s an easy one. Johnny V hasn’t been aboard since the G2 Futurity but when things heat up next season, the mount is his if he wants it. Dominguez rode tough but the trio of Velazquez, Pletcher and Repole seems more likely.  


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Older Comments about KY Derby Points for Uncaptured and Overanalyze...

That's ok, no harm done Mary :)
I left out the middle e in equineline.com.
Thanks so much Mary. That should help me with Derby picks!
URR, Dosage index for Uncaptured is 2.00. When you go to equibase, scroll down to Free 5X pedigree. The dosage index and center of distribution, etc. are listed under the pedigree. Or just go directly to equinline.com.
I'm for Uncaptured. Anyone know what his Dosage is??
The Remsen came up big. NIce time, big BSFs. You have to like the run of Normandy Invasion and Overanalyze has a lot of stakes experience compared to most juveniles.
A pair of interesting races. I'm not sure of the overall quality of any of them, but Uncaptured is obviously classy, and the trio of Remsen horses look good when you look at the gap between them and the rest of the field, as well as, the final time compared to the Gazelle and Demoiselle.

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About Me

Meet Bryan Brinkmeyer – Chicago, IL


Growing up across the river from the Bluegrass State I was able to spend a lot of summer days at Ellis Park, Henderson, KY. 


In the spring of 2000, I made my inaugural Kentucky Derby appearance and the tradition continues because there is no other city in the racing world like Louisville, KY on Derby Day. 


Although the story of a Kentucky Derby winner is legendary, a champions trail is what The Kentucky Derby Post is all about. The coverage begins when Juvenile season starts and continues until the field is set, the picks are in and the roses are awarded. 



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