Posted
Thursday, November 2, 2017
It’s not rocket science, although it is your money you’ll be betting on the 2017 Breeders’ Cup this weekend. With this in mind, allow me to pass on three straightforward keys to betting the championships at Del Mar successfully.
1) Back your strongest opinions with Win bets.
Nine years ago I loved Desert Code in the Turf Sprint, wheeling him in two Pick 3 plays. Desert Code won that day at a whopping 30-1, and I didn’t cash one ticket on him even though I loved his chances. Why? I didn’t back the horse I liked the most with a straight Win bet. In hindsight, maybe I was too greedy or just plain stupid in not tossing $10 to win on him, which would have returned $300. Don’t make the same mistake. Place that Win bet on your best bet each day!
2) Have a plan
Play to your strength. Whether it’s Daily Doubles, Superfectas, Pick 4s, etc. You know you better than anyone else, so don’t follow someone else’s prospect for a score if it doesn’t match how you wager. In addition, create a budget and stick to it.
When gamblers lose, they tend to impulsively chase bets that will return the money they have lost. In behavioral economics this is known as loss aversion; it’s theorized that people feel losses twice as much as gains. We work hard to avoid loses and tend to react -- or overreact -- when we occur them. In our horse betting realm we may think to ourselves, “I really like this horse up next, and I need to win back the money I’ve lost so far today.” Not wise. A plan can help you stay within your own constraints when you start to lose.
My plan is to bet $850, primarily on Pick 4/5 wagers. The Pick 5 has been my bread and butter of late, so I’m staying with it. Since only Saturday’s Pick 5 uses Breeders’ Cup races, I’ll play a few Pick 4s as well -- the last four Breeders’ Cup races on Friday and Saturday. If I lose, I’ll be tempted to makes some last minute wagers, but will hopefully refrain. I never recoup my losses anyway.
3) Enjoy the day!
You're going to be surprised by some performances, hopefully some you predicted and some that will blow up your tickets. But please enjoy these Breeders’ Cup moments. The best of the best Thoroughbreds -- amazing athletes that train and race for our viewing pleasure -- will be on display. We are fortunate to have the money to wager on them.
Now, go make some money while watching equine history!
PS: I’m spreading far and wide in the first four legs of Saturday’s Pick 5 and singling with Lady Aurelia in the Turf Sprint. It will be the largest play of the weekend for me and looks like this before scratches and track conditions: 1,10,11,14/1,2,5,6/1,3,4,5,10/1,4,6,7,10,11,12,13/3 for $320.
