Race of the Week 2017

HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing


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Classic example of a "theoretical" that bombed. as MOST handicapping based pedigrees usually do. Do yourself a favor some time. Get a copy of the American Racing Manual, find the pages that described the most expensive yearlings, or two years olds sold EVER at auction, and then see how they did. THIS IS TRUTH not cherry picked biased reporting. Do you NOT think that the investigators behind the purchasers here did all due diligence to every aspect ot the POTENTIAL of the mating before putting down dollar ONE? With that kind of investment, SURE they did...... and they had to suffer the randomness of what is a pure guessing game in mating potentials. DUMB LUCK
No Doubt Aiden O’ Briens Best dirt horse in recent years almost won the Classic a few years ago
Question time!!! Who’s the World’s best sire right now? I would say Galileo
"Pope's business strategy has been to sell some foals out of the mares, particularly male offspring, to help recoup her investments, while retaining fillies to eventually join her broodmare band. Songbird's foal will likely join this pattern." http://www.drf.com/news/songbird-has-breeding-date-arrogate
Okay I get it. It's the pedigree.
Bubbler dam of Champion Arrogate will be visiting Curlin in 2018, so says Hill N a Dale Farms
Talking about the quality of horses who ran second to Arrogate versus California Chrome in graded stakes races (form validation): 1) Horses who ran 2nd to Arrogate won 5 of 6 races in their next 3 races (within 6 months) after facing Arrogate. 2) Horses (a total of 9 different horses, scroll down to see my complete listing) who ran 2nd to California Chrome won 0 race in 15 starts in their next 3 races (within 6 months) after facing CC. 3) Can someone here name another the "great" horse who can rival California Chrome (0 win in 15 or more starts) in this form validation category?
Not looking too good
They should retire him
Hoping that more experienced, proven mares go to Arrogate to give him a good start to his career
How many likes can I get on this? I'm guessing a lot of negative comments :) Arrogate< California Chrome< American Pharoah
  • Ferrisjso26 · Please don't. I think you're doing it for fun but before you know it everyone's going to be here ready for battle, don't. Gun Runner has the main page now. Arrogate got to worry about his date with Songbird. · 12 hours ago
  • jrem1 · You know my feelings on the matter. Not fair for me to like or comment. Big time A.P. fan of course. TC winner and GS winner. That's all.:) · 8 hours ago
You wont find many fans on here whom genuinely "Hate" California Chrome as much as "BeastBob" and "Ferris"..if you pay close enough attention to these forums you can find them both randomly having long exclusive passionate seething conversations about him in front of the fireplace as the moonlight is shining down upon them..it is quite romantic..
  • HYABUSA · And you do the same with Arrogate · 13 hours ago
  • Ferrisjso26 · We don't hate CC, we're just speaking truth. I thought you largely agreed, I was mistaking. · 12 hours ago
Retro examination of FINISHED races should ONLY be used in a comparison of what the handicapper conceived as how the race was run. NO ONE has the results before a contest runs, only the theoretical of the variations on how it MAY run. These retro attempts here are just so full of logical holes as to be disbelieved, THere is NO logic expressed only wishful thinking. One of the major epiphanies in my game was the day I completely stopped looking at horse's NAMES and only compared abilities against similar paced races. That is all these horses really are: combatants against the foe of fractional time, NOT other horses. Without names to bias one's opinion it is easier to make a rational ,objective choice SHOULD a few horses show dominance and the odds presented make support of the same a viable option at the mutuels.
Winning form validation, part 2: a comparison between Arrogate and California Chrome in graded stakes. Let's look at the stakes win records (the next 3 races within 6 months after running second to either Arrogate or CC) of these 2nd place horses. 1) Arrogate: American Freedom (G1 Travers): 0 win in 0 race (over 6 months off) California Chrome (G1 BCC): 1 win in 2 races (win 1 non-graded stakes and didn't show up in the Pegasus) Shaman Ghost (G1 Pegasus): 2 wins in 2 races Gun Runner (G1 DWC): 2 wins in 2 races 2) California Chrome: Midnight Hawk (G2 San Felipe Stakes): 0 win in 2 races Hoppertunity (G1 SA Derby): 0 win in 0 race (6 months off) Commanding Curve (G1 Kentucky Derby): 0 win in 3 races Ride On Curlin (G1 Preakness): 0 win in 1 race Lexie Lou (G1 Hollywood Derby): 0 win in 2 races Imperative (G2 San Pasqual Stakes): 0 win in 3 races Mubtaahij (G1 DWC): 0 win in 2 races Beholder (G1 Pacific Classic): back down to distaff after that race Dortmund (G1 Awesome Again): 0 win in 2 races It is clear which horse's winning form was validated!!! One was validated by a big ZERO total win in many races!!!!!
  • Show All 6 Comments
  • travel_vic · Every time I read this I shake my head even further as the LOGIC is no where in which this sprouts from whatsoever. · 14 hours ago
  • travel_vic · oh this is the oft quoting "KEY race" malarkey that Davidovitz touts to this day. IT was not that great an idea (in practice) then, it isn't NOW. It is some feeble attempt to designate CORRELATION as being cause and effect. · 13 hours ago
I don't think that most people know the STANDARD percentage of people's surgical morbidity from general anesthesia. HEALTHY people too. IT is a great stress on the system
  • jonquil · I'm not sure what part of my mention of Pentire's passing brought this on, but I'm certain the managers of the stud farm that decided on this were aware of the risks as well. There is always a risk in putting racehorses under even if they are young, and the risk increases with age as with any other animal. From what I've heard there wasn't much choice. His intestines were wrapped around a tumor. It sounded like if they had ignored it the state of his intestines would have only worsened. · 16 hours ago
Had to have surgery for a tumor near his intestine and sadly did not wake up from the anesthesia. R.I.P.
Solomini worked 5f, Nov 21st, in 1:00.80 (h) finishing 9/32
Om worked 4f, Nov 21st, in 47.40 (h) finishing 1/30.
Mubtaahij worked 4f, Nov 21st, in 49.80 (h) finishing 19/30.

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 Meet Matt Shifman 

Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.


Matt’s articles and tweets frequently appear in the America’s Best Racing weekly Notebook. In 2012 he became a voter in the NTRA weekly polls for the Top Thoroughbred and Top Three-Year-Old.


The best way to get to know Matt is to check out some of his favorite articles from the past couple years.

• Preakness Interview with Trainer Todd Pletcher

• Kentucky Derby 2016 Handicapping Tips from A to Z


• Edison: the Travels of a Million Dollar Colt 

• A Kentucky Derby Field with Just 14 Horses

• What is the Best Kentucky Derby Running Style?



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