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Breeders' Cup 2017

HRN Original Blog:
A New York State of Racing

Biggest Betting Favorites in the Breeders’ Cup 2012

As the Breeders’ Cup fast approaches, it is not too early to start thinking about your betting strategies. No doubt there will be some very heavily bet horses, which of the favorites are you going to use in your tickets? Which of these horses will you use as singles in your pick fours and sixes. Which horses will you try and beat as you seek great betting value?
Let’s take a look at which Breeders’ Cup races will have the biggest favorites because this is where you will have to decide:  when do you play the chalk and when do you try and beat the chalk? These are the decisions that can help you have a big betting day at Breeders’ Cup 2012.
In the Classic, experts have assigned Game On Dude as the 2-1 favorite, but I see Game On Dude as the biggest favorite of the day.  The Bob Baffert trainee is immensely popular in California, his best performances have been at Santa Anita and the bettors are going to pour in the money.  I see the actual odds for Game On Dude closer to 6-5.  Are you all-in on Game On Dude or do your remember that Ron The Greek also loves this California track? Many people are looking for a big effort Mucho Macho Man.
Groupie Doll comes into the Filly and Mare Sprint with four straight graded stakes wins and impressive speed figures. She deserves to be heavily bet and she will probably go off at odds close to Game On Dude. I see Groupie Doll as the second most popular horse of the weekend at odds of 7-5.
The home track advantage is also going to provide lots of action for Executiveprivilege in the Juvenile Fillies. The Juvenile Fillies is a race that has been won by 17 out of 28 favorites.  This is another of Bob Baffert’s many stars in the Breeders’ Cup. With this filly going off as the 8-5 favorite, there will be plenty of pressure on the popular gray-haired trainer.
The extremely impressive Wise Dan will be the favorite in the turf Mile. Americans are hoping that this will be the year that the USA can win the big grass races. Excelebration comes in from Europe with some outstanding wins in France and with past performances that show only losses to the great Frankel. That means big odds on horses like Mr. Commons and Animal Kingdom.
Royal Delta is listed as favorite in the Ladies Classic, but that race has the strongest field in this year’s Breeders’ Cup.  Imagine the value that you may get on My Miss Aurelia as the third betting choice or higher?  What is the price you are looking for on Awesome Feather?
The chart lists the Breeders’ Cup races in the order that they are currently carded, but that is subject to change after entries are drawn. Also listed for each race is the horse that I see as the betting favorite. Start thinking about which horses are your favorite favorites and which betting choices you are going to try and beat.  


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Older Comments about Biggest Betting Favorites in the Breeders’ Cup 2012...

Excluding the scratches and horses that ended up in a different race, I missed picking the favorite in the FM Turf, Emcee was a few dollars favored in the Dirt Mile, Shanghai Bobby in the Juvenile, and Amazombie in the Sprint.
great day for keyed veritical exotics
they are, icy. Excelebration's last race put him ahead on RPR's. It is all going to come down to whether Excelebration acclimates and takes to the course. The Europeans respect Wise Dan. But, I, like you, think many of these races could be easily upset.
This card is very contentious. Only need to hit one race for profit and if not in the mood to wager great viewing. I though Excelebration has raced one to many. Apprently not. Sometimes I forget their all individuals and generalize them. Good to know but I think WD and E are very close in ability.
You could be right, icy, but Excelebration just ran his best race ever, and did it easily. Aiden said the horse loves to race and thrives on it. Moonlight Cloud has been my pick ever since Freddie announced she would run. Hope she handles the course and heat. I think she has a huge chance to win.
Let me take it a step farther, if Excelebration hits the board It will surprise me. You should take another look as I did, this could be the most contested race on the card rather than just two horses. There is a lot of other speed and class in this race a longshot named Moonlight Cloud, Obviously, Mr. Commons wouldn't shock me although I do feel a 4yo doesn't have the kick of a fully mature 5yo at the top of his game. This is the best horse n/a has for my money.
By upside I meant we haven't seen his best on turf as he's never been pressed. He's a fully mature 5yo vs a 4yo still maturing. For Excelebration this is a race to many. Yes he's faced the best and won group 1s while WD has pretty much relaxed and is fresh. If two men fight, are the same size, weight, speed, etc. and one has worked an 18hr day and the other just relaxed and waited for the fight who would you take?
Sorry 2 GR1's and a GR3 this year, and 3 runner ups vs Frankel.
ICY HOT BOO= How exactly does wise Dan have ALL this upside at 5, and yet excelebration is 4, and has won 3gr1, and dealt with Frankel kept Excelebration from winning 5 gr1's or so in a row?. EXCELEBRATION has the most upside.......
can someone explain to me why Worth Repeating is the favorite in the Marathon
Wise Dan has a lot of upside while we've seen the best of excelebration. I need a horse for 3rd to nail the tri solid.
  • michelle.r.roberts.14 · Moonlight Cloud is no slouch, but for a bigger pay, I would put Mr. Commons, Wilcox Inn, Doubles Partner, or Turbo Compressor. What I will do is split Wise Dan and Excelebration in 10 cent supers. I will play them in 1st and 3rd by themelves over all in the other two spots and then those two over all, all, over those two. Get a price in that second slot and the payoff can still be substantial. Plus you can play them for more than one dime, if you like. Just adding thoughts. · 1817 days ago
I think Executiveprivilege and Groupie Doll are the most likely winning favorites. Since you get such great odds in the Breeders Cup, I am going to try and beat the other favorites. I don't know what the average winning payout is in the Breeders Cup, but I bet it is pretty big.
  • michelle.r.roberts.14 · Well, since your in the mood, how about a cheap pik 3 playing against those two as well. Sometimes it those cheap little saver bets can make up the whole day. Just saying... · 1817 days ago
Think Royal Delta is most likely winner. Groupie Doll will be tough, but thinking Baffert will have Contested ready to roll.
Royal Delta the most likely winner? In that field? Look out for the undefeated Feather.
Groupie Doll will be a single for sure for me.
Animal Kingdom has not run since Feb. A BC win would be remarkable against Wise Dan and Excelebration.
  • pom.deterre.1 · except that AK is running in a totally different race than wise dan... have you even looked at the entries? one is dirt, the other turf. · 1818 days ago
  • michelle.r.roberts.14 · Better double check your entries pom. They run together. · 1817 days ago
railbird33 -- I'm with you. Everyone seems to be forgetting about My Miss Aurelia again, but not me.
Betting favorites on BC day. We can all tell some bad beat stories. (Rock of Gibralter, Lost in the Fog) I like your picks Winplacsho, but my sixth sense says My Miss Aurelia is going to show up big and take down RD.
We were behind a young couple at Anit in '93. THey had lost in every way possible: bumped, photo'd out of a placing etc. but were undaunted. The wife says to the hubby "I hear this guy Andre Fabre is a good trainer. Let put 5 win , 10 place on this AR-KOG-NAYS horse and see what happens." What a payday right before out eyes. We all congratulated them.
If the average payoff for the Classic is $27, didn't Arcangues pay somewhere in the $250+ range? If so, the average would come down rather drastically?

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Matt Shifman has been on the Horse Racing Nation staff since 2011 and currently serves as Assistant Editor. Matt covers Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Monmouth Park, and Saratoga in his two HRN blogs Racing at the Jersey Shore and New York State of Racing.


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