Posted
Friday, March 01, 2019
New York's much-maligned small fields during the winter have had no effect on the quality of the daily Aqueduct survivor contests at DerbyWars.com. With an entry only costing $5.75, there is plenty of challenge to your handicapping skills with the chance of a nice payoff.
For example, in Thursday's Aqueduct Survivor Contest, only one player made it through all seven races selecting a horse to finish in the Top 3 and thus earned the top prize of $354 plus the $100 jackpot bonus. This was on a day when the field sizes during the contest were: 5, 5, 5, 6, 7, 6, and 8.
Three favorites failed to hit the board, paving the way for the bonus-winning sole survivor. In race 3, the 1.90-1 favorite finished last, and 37 entries were eliminated. The 1.20-1 top choice was eased in the next race, counting out 24 more. Then in race 6, the 5-2 betting choice came in sixth, and 10 players more were dashed, leaving only four remaining for the final two races.
Get in the Game! $1,000 AQ Survivor - only $5.75 to Play!
Want to contend when the stakes are raised for Saturday’s $1,000 Aqueduct Survivor contest? Here are five tips:
1) You need to play more than one entry to survive the races that are more challenging to handicap and have less predictable outcomes. You may buy between 1 and 12 entries, and most competitive players do use several.
2) On most days, Aqueduct plays fairly, not favoring either the off the pace runners or the speed horses. However, there were a few days when there was a noticeable speed bias. In the aforementioned Thursday contest, closers and stalkers were doing very well. Generally, I prefer that running style in survivor contests because they get to pass tiring horses and hit the board.
3) The contest kicks off in Race 2 with a vulnerable 8-5 morning line favorite. Volodina ships up to Aqueduct for the first time from Parx after a layoff from November. I prefer Mo Flash, who scratched out of a similar starter allowance on Thursday to opt for this six-furlong distance. He has an impressive 6: 3-0-2 record at Aqueduct and a stalking style.
4) Race 4 features 6-5 morning line favorite in Bel Cuore who has hit the board in three of four starts. She draws the rail in a field of nine that contains three debut runners. Michelle Nevin puts blinkers on a horse that has shown a tendency to tire. I prefer Vinda Machine in here. In her last start, she ran third, just a half-length behind Rose of Dublin, who is listed as the 8-5 favorite in Race 6.
5) A field of seven in Race 7 presents a big challenge as a contentious first-level New York-bred allowance. This is a race that seems to require playing multiple horses. Miss Hot Stones returns from more than a year off with 9-5 morning line odds. Spring Drama won her maiden special weight by more than eight lengths last time for Kiaran McLaughlin in her ninth career start as a 5-year-old. Both seem vulnerable, so I prefer Orchid Party who has hit the board at Aqueduct in 9 of 10 starts. To survive, it may make sense to use all three.
Get in the Game! $1,000 AQ Survivor - only $5.75 to Play!
