Charting the Breeders' Cup

October 25, 2011 08:17am
BC Payouts
In 1984, the Breeders’ Cup began with seven races: Classic, Distaff, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Turf, and the Sprint. In 2011, there will be 15 races over two days. The race order for Saturday is: Marathon, Juvenile Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile, Mile, Dirt Mile, Turf, and Classic. Of the original seven races only five will be contested on Saturday, which is the day for races designated for colts and geldings. The final four races on Saturday will make up a $1.5 million dollar guaranteed pick four. The sequence is the Mile, the Dirt Mile in its fifth year, the Turf, and the Classic.
These charts for the original Breeders’ Cup races include information about the past winners: win payout, track, exacta and trifecta prices, and trainer. Averages are calculated for all of the payouts and European grass winners are marked. 
Facts and Figures for the Mile
The Mile is the race of repeat winners.  Of course the mare Goldikova has won the last three Miles and goes for a fourth in 2011. Olivier Presslier and Freddy Head are the trainer and rider for Goldikova’s wins.  Da Hoss (1996, 1998), Lure (1992, 1993), and Miesque (1987,1988) have won twice.  The Niarchos Family has won the Mile five times.  The Europeans have won the Mile 13 of the 27 races.
Ten favorites have been victorious for an average price of $16.29.  The biggest two dollar exacta ($1,496) and trifecta ($12,495) payouts came in 2004, when Singletary paid $35.00 to win.
Facts and Figures for the Turf
Many handicappers believe that the best strategy for betting the Breeders’ Cup Turf is to play the European horses.  The truth is that the Euros have won half of the races including five of the past six. Of those five all but one of them have been double digit win prices. 
The Turf has an average payout of $19.55 that includes nine winning favorites. Exacta and trifecta prices have been relatively low.
The leading jockey and trainer are both Europeans.  Frankie Dettori and Sir Michael Stoute have each won four BC Turfs.  The leading owners of 3 Turf winners each are the Aga Khan IV and Sheikh Mohammed.  The Turf is the only race to have ended in a dead heat with High Chapparal and Johar sharing the win in 2003.
Facts and Figures for the Classic
The Classic has been won by the favorite nine times in its history, most recently by Zenyatta in 2009. The average win payout is $27.12. Of course that number was inflated by the biggest long shot in Breeders’ Cup history, the $269.20 win by Arcangues in 1993.  The shortest win price went to Cigar ($3.40) in 1995.
The Classic trifecta has been offered 20 times since 1984, and has an average return of $4,230 on a two dollar bet.  There have been 12 returns of over $1,000.  The biggest trifecta came in 1999 and paid over $39,000 for 20-1 with 26-1 with 75-1. That was when Cat Thief won the Classic for D. Wayne Lukas.
Jerry Bailey and Chris McCarron both won five Classics. Only two trainers have gotten to the winner’s circle twice, Charlie Whittingham and Jay Robbins. Tiznow and Stronach Stables won the Classic twice.

[Don't forget to check out the HRN exclusive Super Screener to cash in big at the Breeder's Cup!]


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Older Comments about Charting the Breeders' Cup...

LOL, keeneland dan, I probably pay too much on my taxes! Good luck in the BC!
Each race, no matter if it is a claimer or a stakes contest is exclusive unto itself dynamically. While the study of the history makes some sense, its predicitive value TODAY is severely limited
I can give you my 1099'
can somebody post the past doubles, pick threes, pick fours and pick six
I have watched and handicapped each one from the start. The eveness of competition makes playing the vast majority of them a true crap shoot.
Oh, 50¢ trifectas would be a lot of fun!
It seems as if you only need to get 1, maybe 2 trifectas out of 15 races in order to have a good weekend, and if I'm not mistaken they have $0.50 trifectas so hopefully you can land a bomb or 2. At least that would give me enough dough to by the HRN folks some beers at the BC!
In seven BC Classics at Churchill only 5 horses at odds 5-1 or under have run equal to or better than their odds rank (15, 75%, ran worse than their odds rank!). The 5 horses that did run to their expectations produced 4 wins. The other 3 winners came from horses at odds from 6-1 to 10-1. Nine of 15 horses 6-1 to 10-1 outran their odds! 32 of 45 Horses over 10-1 outran their odds, but only produced 1 second and 4 thirds
Look at those tasty exotic payoffs ... truly the best betting weekend of the year!

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In the 70’s I was another one of those kids that went to the track with their fathers, and I immediately became enthralled with the excitement and challenges of handicapping.  And then the charisma and dominance of Secretariat gave me a hero to follow. To this day, I still get emotional when I hear Chic Anderson’s call of the 1973 Belmont, “Secretariat is moving like a tremendous machine”.

There have been many great horses run at the shore. In 1976 I watched Majestic Light win the Monmouth Invitational, now the Haskell, in track record time, defeating Honest Pleasure, the big favorite who was in from New York.  This was one of my first big wins at the track.
In the 80’s, as a disciple of Andy Beyer, I made my own speed figures because they were not available to the public. Needless to say I visited Monmouth frequently to test out the “figs”.
The 90’s allowed me to learn about the backstretch as a part owner of a few claimers that were stabled at Philadelphia Park.  Not a typical owner, I mucked stalls, cooled out the horses, and watched morning works.  Also, I met my wife and discovered that her grandfather bred, owned, and raced thoroughbreds on the West Virginia, Maryland circuit.  Today our office is decorated with winner’s circle pictures and a vast collection of Kentucky Derby glasses.
Today’s electronic age makes it so easy to gather information about racing.  I hope you use this blog to learn about Racing at the Jersey Shore.


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