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Top 10 Must-Know Kentucky Derby Facts

Super Saver wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby Super Screener has been released and is THE guide to the likely outcome of the 2011 Kentucky Derby.  In addition to the powerful content captured in the Super Screener, here's my Top 10 "Must-Know" Kentucky Derby Facts to help you cut through a lot of the noise you are going to here from now until May 7th.


1. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without running a race at 2 years old since Apollo did it in 1882.  Midnight Interlude will try to buck this century old barrier.

2. Only 3 horses have won from Post Positions 17-20 since 1900.   No horse has ever won from Post Position 19.  Pay attention to this year's post position draw.  If you like a speed horse that will come out of post 19 or 20, discount his chances big time!

3. Only 2 geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1929…Funny Cide and Mine That Bird.

4. Since Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in the Daily Racing Form in 1987, no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with a Beyer figure of less than 101.  Sunday Silence earned the lowest winning Beyer Speed Figure (101) and Monarchos earned the highest (116).

5. In the past 17 years, only one horse (Mine That Bird) has won the Kentucky Derby after earning a BRIS Speed Rating of less than 100 in one of their final two preps.  Only three horses in the probably Derby field posted a BRIS Speed Rating of 100+ in one of their final two preps.  Check the Super Screener to learn which horses met this benchmark.

6. 94% of Kentucky Derby winners finished either first, second or third in their final Derby prep.  There are about 6 horses that could make the Derby field that did not finish in the money in their last prep race.

7. A horse must have run at least one race at 1 1/8 miles prior to the Kentucky Derby to be considered a win contender.

8. Eight of the last 11 Kentucky Derby winners have come from the Raise A Native sire line.

9. In the past 70 years, no Derby winner has ever won with a Dosage Index higher than 5.4.  All 2011 Derby candidates easily meet this criteria.

10. Lightly raced speed horses that owned the lone lead in their final two prep races are always over bet and always disappoint.

IF you want to crush this wide-open Kentucky Derby this year, be sure to get my 2011 Kentucky Derby Super Screener

Kentucky Derby Super Screener


Also, be sure to check out my FREE VIDEO with FIVE PROVEN FACTORS for finding the Kentucky Derby Winner. 

Go Fast and Win! 



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Older Comments about Top 10 Must-Know Kentucky Derby Facts...

just about every winner is a sustained/presser
Just found this! Very interesting stuff. derbydeals.com
More than half the field is from Raise A native
Does anyone have a list of the Derby contenders and which ones come from the Raise A Native sire line?
Thanks ajump08
Some old and proven rules, but all worth heeding. Great stuff!
@BradB90956 http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm
Re: #5...Where can you get the Bris Speed Ratings for each horse in their final 2 preps?
At least one is a little misleading though. #2 - there haven't been 20 horse fields every year since 1900. And really it's just been modern times that we've had a full field of 20 every year. I'd have to check the stats to see the average number of runners since 1900.
I am going with a long shot bet! If I don't win; it would be what happens every year; so no biggie.
These do eliminate a good bit of contenders, but if one nitpicked you could find something that applies to every horse. I would say find the horse with the least amount and which one would have the least impact today. The beyer one goes for almost every horse except for maybe Soldat, who is a very consistent horse. However he did not finish 1st second or third, which i think is big. Mo finished third, so he qualifies there, however he has the beyer thing against him, however, with the invention of so many other figures how much does that apply today?

About Me

Mike has been a passionate horseracing fan for over 30 years. He received his “handicapping education” through countless hours of deciphering the mystery that is embedded in every race. It was the tough beats at the window, however, that propelled him to never make the same mistake twice (well, maybe three times).

As Managing Partner of Horse Racing Nation, Mike serves as investor, business advisor, staff handicapper and developer of handicapping content.

Handicapping the Derby has always been one of Mike's favorite endeavors.  He spends weeks compiling notes, speed figures and analysis in preparation for the big race.  In 2010, his HRN pals pushed him into packaging his time-tested methods into what became the 2010 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, an e-book that became extremely popular with HRN readers and was downloaded over 3,000 times.   

In preparation for the 2011 Derby, Mike will be "Rating the Preps" each weekend on the Derby trail.  The goal will be to build a good picture for which prep races are most likely to produce the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner.   

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