While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of energy distribution profiles (running styles) and their impact on the outcome of the top four Kentucky Derby finishers.

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. In addition, we captured the first and second call factional times of each race.

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

Highly regarded pace types haven taken down a lot of money over the history of the Kentucky Derby. Just last year, Bodemeister went off as the favorite and looked much the winner in mid-stretch but failed to hold the bid. Lion Heart and Peace Rules were also highly regarded “wire” types that managed to hit the board but missed the win. Complete flops of recent favored pace types include; 2005 Bellamy Road, 2006 Brother Derek and 2010 Sidney’s Candy. War Emblem in 2002 broke through with a wire-to-wire victory.  Prior to War Emblem’s wire victory, which was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from gate to wire?

Here’s a summary of our findings from the chart above:

·       Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 27 of the slots or 68%.

·       At least 2 Closer/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in each of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby. Six of ten races featured 3 or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

·       Half of the second place finishers were comprised of tiring PACE/PRESSER types.

·       No Pace type has won the Kentucky Derby in the past 10 years. Bodemeister came close with a 2^nd place finish last year.

·       Five of the past ten races produced two 20-1+ long shots that finished in the Superfecta.

·       The fourth place slot yielded seven 20-1+ bombers in the past 10 years.

For the 2013 Kentucky Derby, the Super Screener will be projecting the pace (once the final field is locked in) to provide insight on the prospects of “those that close”.  To learn more about how the Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field, go to www.superscreener.com Monday!