Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Martha Washington

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1.   Wet Paint (9-2)

In her last race, Wet Paint maintained a smooth gallop behind the pacesetter but lost focus at the head of the stretch while putting that one away, turning her head to the outside and slowing. Once clear, she got back on track but couldn't hold off the winner. Again, she turned her head through the stretch, passing horses in her maiden win but didn't lose focus. She wore blinkers in both starts. Wet Paint's speed figures are middling, but she enters for the high-percentage winning team of Cox/Prat. Exotics.

In terms of surface, you name it, Wet Paint has done it. She debuted on the turf, where she was no factor and finished 10th. She then broke her maiden at second asking in the slop at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She was most recently second in an optional claimer over Turfway Park’s all-weather track. All three races were contested at a mile, and Wet Paint’s Brisnet Speed Rating improved with each start. But the final times for those races were very slow, so despite all the upside that comes from trainer Brad Cox, I just can’t get behind this filly. Pass.

2.   Key to Success (20-1)

Key to Success is a popular filly at the claiming box. But her only success was a nose victory in a $30,000 maiden claimer. In addition, her speed ratings are some of the lowest in the field. Pass.

It appears the key to success has not been found with this daughter of Cupid. She has one win in five starts and has barn-jumped a couple of times. For the most part, her Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved with each start, culminating with a career-best 82 last out when finishing second in an optional claimer here at Oaklawn. Trainer Michael Puhich owns rather dismal stats. He’s batting zero in non-graded stakes races and in second off the claim starts. He’s winning at only a 6 percent rate with the second start with the trainer. Pass.

3.   Defining Purpose (6-5)

When Defining Purpose is good, she's very, very good, but so far, that only happens every other race. She sandwiched a distant fifth-place finish in the Golden Rod (G2) between a maiden victory and a 5 1/4-length win in Oaklawn's Year's End Stakes, besting Take Charge Briana and Taxed in the process. In her favor, Cross Traffic's daughter's speed ratings improved in each start. So the $200,000 question is: Will the McPeek trainee break her win/lose cycle in the Martha Washington? Contender.

This is an interesting filly in that her past performances are nearly identical. She ran fifth in her debut and her third start, the Golden Rod (G3), losing both by 6 1/4 lengths. She then won her second start by six lengths and the Years End Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths. But her speed ratings have improved with each start, culminating with an 89 last out. That gives her both the best dirt speed and the highest last-race speed rating in the field. Additionally, she’s raced exclusively at a mile or longer and owns a win over this track. Trainer Ken McPeek is winning at a 21 percent rate in non-graded stakes. Contender.

4.   Take Charge Briana (6-1)

By Curlin, out of an unraced full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Brandi, Take Charge Briana has the best pedigree in the field. But so far, neither she nor her three half-siblings have lived up to expectations. The Wayne Lukas trainee is a one-run type who passes tired horses, generally picks up a check, but rarely wins. Exotics.

With seven lifetime starts, this daughter of Curlin is the most experienced runner in the field, but she has only one win. It took her three attempts to break her maiden, finally getting the job done in a seven-furlong event at Saratoga. Since then, she finished 10th, beaten 20 lengths, in the Alcibiades (G1); fourth in the Myrtlewood and third behind Defining Purpose in the Year’s End Stakes. She also ran in the Golden Rod (G2) but was pulled up and vanned off because of what ended up being a small cut in her mouth that made her very sensitive to the bit. After her third-place finish in the Years End, jockey Cristian Torres stated that he wished the race had been longer. She’ll get that extra distance here, but the Oaklawn stretch isn’t always kind to closers. Exotics.

5.   Olivia Twist (2-1)

A big fish in a small Remington Park pond, Olivia Twist gets a class and distance check. The daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Mshawish is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Skippylongstocking and listed winning sprinter Moonilte Strike. The Todd Fincher trainee's speed ratings are comparable to the rest of the field, and we know she likes to win. Contender.

Trained by Todd Fincher, Olivia Twist is undefeated in three career starts, all at Remington Park. She won those races by a combined 19 1/2 lengths, the most recent of which was the Trapeze Stakes. Fincher is striking at a 22 percent rate with last-race winners and at a 33 percent rate with shippers. Jockey Cristian Torres has been hot recently and combined with Fincher has been winning at a 50 percent rate (two starters). The downside here is that the final time for her last two races, both contested at a mile, was slow. She has not needed to be particularly fast yet, but she’ll need to show a bit more here. Contender.

6.   Taxed (15-1)

By Collected out of a stakes-placed daughter of Yankee Gentleman, Taxed has a sprinter-miler pedigree. She's a speed-fade type whose lone victory was against $50,000 maiden claimers at a mile. She has an excellent mud pedigree, all three half-siblings hit the board, and her sire is represented by five mud routers, with only one finishing out of the money. If she moves forward over the mud, will she be able to carry her speed an extra half-furlong? She's worth a live long shot look.

By Collected, Taxed has one win from four starts, a 2 3/4-length triumph in a mile maiden claimer in her third start. Last out she was 4th in the Years End behind winner Defining Purpose and third-place finisher Take Charge Briana. Taxed had the lead five furlongs in but weakened in the stretch to round out the superfecta. Trainer Randy Morse is winning at only a 7 percent clip in non-graded stakes, and Morse and jockey Joe Talamo have not won together in 14 starts. I expect to see a similar performance to the Years End here. Exotics.

                Laurie

           Ashley

#5. Olivia Twist (2-1)

#5 Olivia Twist (2-1)

#1. Wet Paint (9-2)

#3 Defining Purpose (6-5)

#3 Defining Purpose (6-5)

#6 Taxed (15-1)

#6 Taxed (15-1)

#4 Take Charge Briana (6-1)