Churchill Downs’s Grade 2, $500,000 Lukas Classic, previously known as the Homecoming Classic, achieved graded status in 2017 and was upgraded to a Grade 2 for this year’s edition. While not a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, the Lukas Classic has been used as a springboard for several Breeders’ Cup-bound runners over the last several years, most notably Knicks Go who won both the Lukas Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2021.
This year’s edition of the 1 1/8-mile contest attracted a field of nine runners led by Stephen Foster (G1) runner-up Rattle N Roll. Many in the race have already faced each other multiple times, but we do get a few new shooters including Blue Devil, who just switched to traditional dirt this summer at Saratoga.
The Grade 2 Lukas Classic will go off as Race 10 on the 11-race card with post time at 5:29 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Happy American (8-1) | |
| Happy American is a one-paced closer who hasn’t passed Rattle N Roll in their last three matches. The Neil Pessin trainee is pretty consistent; his form shows he’ll hit the board three times before going off form. Happy American finished third in his last two starts, plus returning after a little break. He’s hit the board in five of six outings at Churchill, but the weak link is the distance; he’s been successful once in six tries at 1 1/8 miles. Worth a lower exotics play.
| Happy American hasn’t won since January and comes off three straight losses to Rattle N Roll. After winning the Louisiana Stakes (G3) to begin his year, the son of Runhappy was well beaten in both the Mineshaft (G3) and the New Orleans Classic (G2). He did run well in his last three, getting minor awards while not finishing up the track behind the winner. James Graham retains the mount for trainer Neil Pessin. Exotics.
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| 2. Clapton (6-1) | |
| In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Clapton chased a quick early pace, then strummed down the lane to lose the photo for third place by a nose. It was a reasonable effort, but the Chad Summers trainee needs every inch to close ground, and he’s cutting back in distance. The only times Clapton earned the winning spotlight was with a pace-pressing style. Exotics play.
| Clapton was fourth last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), earning a career-high 108 Equibase speed figure while finishing just 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Bright Future. That was his first off-the-board finish this year. His last win was a 1/2-length victory in the Ghostzapper (G3) back in April. Trainer Chad Summers is just 1-for-14 in graded stakes over the last 5 years according to Race Lens. Cristian Torres replaces Irad Ortiz, Jr. Use underneath.
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| 3. Warrant (8-1) | |
| In the Governor's Cup, Warrant battled down the stretch, put away a rival, then quickly engaged a challenger, only to be denied victory by a nose. The internal fractions were painfully slow, almost like they were running in quicksand. The Brad Cox trainee meets a more challenging group this time but takes the hood off, so I’ll take it on blind faith that he’ll earn a piece of the pie. Exotics.
| Warrant won the $175,000 Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes back in May in his only other start under the Twin Spires. Since then, he finished off the board in a pair of graded stakes and just missed the win by a head last out in the $100,000 Governor’s Cup at Remington Park. He earned a career second-best 107 Equibase speed figure in that race; only the 108 he earned in last year’s 1 1/2-mile Brooklyn (G2) tops that number. Overall, the son of Constitution’s speed figures are below what’s needed to beat the best of this group. Pass.
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| 4. Rattle N Roll (7-5) | |
| Rattle N Roll didn’t care for the track or company in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and checked in sixth. Now he’s back to a track he loves, having hit the board in all six starts at Churchill. The Ken McPeek trainee has bested Clapton and Happy American in previous starts and posted a pre-race bullet work. I expect to see a whole lot of shakin’ going on down the stretch. Contender.
| Rattle N Roll ran an atypical race last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). He took up his normal position at the back of the field, but when it came time to run down the competition, the son of Connect came up empty, finishing sixth. Two starts back Rattle N Roll turned in a career-best and field-best performance by the numbers, earning a 116 Equibase speed figure when finishing just 1/2-length behind West Will Power in second. Rattle N Roll gets some class relief after facing grade one company in his last two starts and shortens up to a distance he may prefer. The colt is 6: 3-1-2 at Churchill Downs. Brian Hernandez, Jr. retains the mount for Kenny McPeek. Contender.
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| 5. Trademark (12-1) | |
| Trademark is having a good summer with a win and two in the money finishes in his last three outings. The Vicky Oliver trainee was in contention every step in the Philip H. Iselin (G3) but gave way late to Whelen Springs. Although Upstart’s son has won at 1 1/8 miles, it was against a lesser group, and I’m not convinced he’ll go that far in this company. Also, his speed ratings are on the low side. Pass.
| Trademark started the year slowly, failing to hit the board in his first three starts. In his most recent three starts, he’s gone 3: 1-1-1, most recently finishing just 1/2 length behind Whelen Springs in the Philip H. Iselin (G3). Martin Garcia hops aboard for trainer Victoria Oliver, who is just four percent (28 percent in the money) in graded stakes over the last year according to Race Lens. He is 3-for-4 at Churchill Downs, but I have to pass.
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| 6. Blue Devil (20-1) | |
| Since Jeff Hiles switched him to dirt, Blue Devil has recorded two triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings. He captured his first start on dirt by 12 lengths, reminding me of Cigar, who did something similar after a so-so turf career. Blue Devil is taking a huge step up but could surprise. Live long shot.
| Blue Devil began his career as a turf/synthetics runner, notching just one victory in ten starts, though he had four races where he ran second by a neck or less. Trainer Jeff Hiles shipped the Uncle Mo gelding to Saratoga where he got his first taste of traditional dirt when his race came off the turf; Blue Devil romped to a 12 length victory with a then career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. Hiles sent him out on dirt again for his next start, and Blue Devil once again won, this time by a hard-fought nose over a field that included several graded stakes placed types. Hiles is winless in graded stakes races, but Blue Devil really took to the dirt. Ricardo Santana, Jr., aboard for his last two races, retains the mount. Interesting long shot.
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| 7. Whelen Springs (12-1) | |
| Whelen Springs has thrived since switching to Lindsay Schultz’s barn and stretching out. Street Sense’s son’s speed ratings have improved in each start, culminating in a 97 Brisnet rating in the Philip H. Iselin (G3). Further improvement gives him a long shot chance.
| Whelen Springs also had a slow start to 2023, but the son of Street Sense has been a whole new colt since arriving in trainer Linday Schultz’s barn. Whelen Springs failed to hit the board in his first four starts this year, but is now 3: 2-1-0 under Schultz’s tutelage, including a runner-up finish in the Monmouth Cup (G3) and a victorying the Philip H. Iselin (G3) over Trademark last out. Whelen Springs posted three of his four best speed figures in his last three races and looks on par to continue to improve. Contender.
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| 8. Five Star General (15-1) | |
| Five Star General is competitive at lesser tracks but has been bested by Trademark and Happy American. With speed figures in the lower range of the field, This general gets only one star from me. Pass.
| Five Star General has logged some miles this year and will be racing at his fifth track in as many starts when he enters the starting gate Saturday. He enters off a career-best 114 Equibase speed figure in the Longacres Mile last month. By the numbers, this 7-year-old is in the best form of his career, however, it’s been years since he’s been able to string together multiple wins. Corey Lanerie hops aboard for trainer Grant Forster. Live long shot.
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| 9. Americanrevolution (5-2) | |
| Americanrevolution hopes to get back to his graded stakes-winning ways after almost a year away from the track. Things didn’t go his way in his first start off the layoff. The Todd Pletcher trainee stumbled hard at the start of the race, was wide most of the way, but made a challenge around the far turn. That’s where Americanrevolution ran out of ammo and was laboring. He didn’t care for Luis Saez’s encouragement, swishing his tail and shortening stride. I’m tossing the race since he clearly needed the effort. Contender.
| When Americanrevolution is good, he’s really good. Unfortunately, his best races have all been in state-bred events. He did beat Olympiad in the Cigar Mile (G1) in 2021, but that was before Olympiad got good. I agree with Laurie that the Todd Pletcher trainee needed his last race, and stumbling at the start certainly didn’t help. However, I’m not convinced that he’s quite ready for this spot. Pass.
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Final Thoughts
Laurie: Since the race’s inception nine years ago as the Homecoming Classic Stakes, only two winners didn’t finish in the top three in their previous start. Seven favorites placed first or second, and speed is key; eight winners were pacesetters or pressers.
Six of the nine entries employed a pacesetter or presser running style, and five won or placed in their last start.
Long shots Blue Devil and Whelen Springs have shown the most improvement in their last few starts and prefer to be on or near the lead. They’ll be tested for class and are the only ones who can answer that question.
If the pace gets hot and heavy, it could set up for Rattle and Roll, an upset by Clapton, or even Happy American. The trio have the highest Brisnet late-pace numbers in the field.
I’m taking the long shot Whelen Springs on top. I like Blue Devil a lot, but the 14-point speed rating spike makes him ripe for a regression. On paper, most of the field has a chance to hit the board.
Ashley: While there are a few in here that have shown speed in their races, only Five Star General strikes me as a true pacesetter. The others can take it or leave it. Overall, this is the type of race where it's easy to make a case for most in the field. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if one of the long shots came home on top, but...
I’m looking for a rebound from Rattle N Roll at a track he really likes. While he is a closer, he doesn’t need a torrid pace in order to be effective and has shown that he can be more of a pace-presser if the occasion calls for it.
While Laurie is going to take a long shot on top, I’m going with favored Rattle N Roll for the aforementioned reasons. I will pass on second choice Americanrevolution and fill out my ticket with some of the longer-priced runners in this field.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 7. Whelen Springs (12-1) | 4. Rattle N Roll (7-5) |
| 4. Rattle N Roll (7-5) | 8. Five Star General (15-1) |
| 9. Americanrevolution (5-2) | 7. Whelen Springs (12-1) |
| 2. Clapton (6-1) | 1. Happy American (8-1) |
