Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Fourstardave

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Raging Bull

He was on the losing end of the photo in the Poker (G3) last out. He’ll have to make his run in a field with lone speed, but Raging Bull has hit the board in three of four starts at the Spa. The one start he didn’t was last year’s Fourstardave, where he encountered traffic trouble from post 1.  Brown and Ortiz win turf graded stakes at a 28% clip.

Raging Bull is quite good at the mile distance, and like Laurie pointed out, the 6-year old appreciates the Saratoga course. This will be his third shot at winning the Fourstardave; he was second to Got Stormy in 2019 and a troubled fifth last year. If you believe in patterns and/or signs, bear in mind Raging Bull broke from post 1 last year and drew the rail again this year. He has the class to win this, but it could be a tall task if someone does not keep Blowout honest on the lead.

2. Whisper Not (GB)

Whisper Not recorded his worst finish in over a year in the Shoemaker Mile, his first Grade 1 attempt. Baltas rarely ships, but when he does, his horses often hit the board. Add the jock upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and we have a live longshot.

Whisper Not has been a check cashing machine since debuting in the U.S. this past November. He finished an uncharacteristic fifth last out in the Shoemaker Mile (G1), and part of me wonders if jockey Geovanni Franco didn’t get a case of the yips. He has ridden a couple Grade 1 winners over the years, but it is far from a level of competition that he is used to. So with that said, I agree that the switch to Jose Ortiz makes Whisper Not a live longshot.

3. Daddy Is a Legend

Daddy Is a Legend hit the board in both starts this year, with an improved speed figure. Although she’s a Grade 1 winner, the George Weaver trainee finds a mile a little too short; she’s won once in ten tries at the distance.

Daddy Is a Legend typically shows up to run her race, only finishing worse than fourth on three occasions plus a DNF in the 2018 Pin Oak Valley View (G3) when she ducked through the rail at the start. This will be her first attempt against the boys, and all things considered, I have to pass.

4. Casa Creed

Casa Creed is in the best form of his career. He’s won his last two starts, but both were sprints. A mile is at the top of his distance range, and the Bill Mott trainee has only two wins from 11 starts at a mile.

I don’t have much to add, as Laurie seems to have covered the important aspects of Casa Creed. His best shot at winning this will be not letting Blowout get too far ahead while reserving some energy for the stretch to fend off the late charge of Raging Bull.

5. Set Piece

There’s a lot to like about Set Piece. He’s won his last four starts and owns the highest late-pace figure in the field. Plus, he’s conditioned by super trainer Brad Cox. The drawback is that Set Piece has won only two of five starts at a mile, and he’s moving up in class. 

Set Piece is in excellent form right now and handled his last class hike, from listed to Grade 2, just fine. My biggest concern is that Set Piece’s last race at Saratoga left a lot to be desired. Even though he was checked hard going into the first turn, he had plenty of opportunity to make up ground. Instead, he finished sixth of seven that day. Certainly worth a look in filling out the exotics.

6. Got Stormy

Got Stormy is a favorite of mine, and I was disappointed when she missed her second victory in the Fourstardave last year. She has finished off the board in two of three tries this year but had an excuse when Tyler Gaffalione lost his crop in the six-furlong Jaipur (G1). The Mark Casse trainee is back at the Spa, where she has finished in the money in all three starts.

When Got Stormy is good, she’s very good. Unfortunately, her form this year has not been as good as it was in 2019 and 2020. I would love to see her win the Fourstardave for the second time, but unless she vastly improves off that fifth in the Jaipur (G1), she will have to settle for a minor award. She does loves Saratoga, though, so that’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Fun fact: Got Stormy smashed the Saratoga track record for a mile on the turf in 2019 when becoming the first filly to win the Fourstardave.

7. Field Pass

Field Pass has hit the board in two of three starts on the Saratoga lawn. However, he doesn’t string together back-to-back wins, and his speed figures are a bit low for this group.

I do not see Field Pass as a Grade 1 type. He has checked in behind Raging Bull, Set Piece, and Whisper Not in his last five starts, and faces all three of those rivals here. His speed figures have dropped in his last two starts, so I will pass.

8.  Blowout (GB)

Blowout is the lone speed. She has hit the board in all 12 starts, and although she’s 0 for 3 at Saratoga, those defeats were by slim margins. The Chad Brown trainee gets a switch to Joel Rosario. This is a good thing because the pair have a win rate of 27% in turf graded stakes over the last five years.

As the lone speed, I think Blowout has a very good chance at upsetting this field. Her speed figures aren’t the best in the bunch and this will be her first attempt against the boys, but Chad Brown must think she is capable. She has just one race for the year, but she won it despite losing a big lead, showing determination and heart. Worth playing on top.

Laurie

      Ashley

#8 Blowout (6-1)

#8 Blowout (6-1)

#5 Set Piece (5-2)

#6 Got Stormy (10-1)

#1 Raging Bull (9-5)

#1 Raging Bull (9-5)

#6 Got Stormy (10-1)

#2 Whisper Not (20-1)