Kentucky Derby Radar: Chance It's Fountain of Youth-bound

January 28, 2020 12:00pm
Kentucky Derby Radar: Chance It's Fountain of Youth-bound
Photo: Courtesy of Gulfstream Park
Wherever the connections of Chance It chose to hit the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail at Gulfstream Park, they were bound to run into another star.

Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law is the expected headline to Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes (G3), while the former Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite Dennis' Moment is targeting a return to the races in the Feb. 29 Fountain of Youth (G2).

It's not so much the competition, but the potential payouts, that led to Chance It bypassing the Holy Bull.

"We’re going to the Fountain of Youth because it’s 50 points," trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said, citing the Derby qualifying scale. "The Holy Bull’s only 10 points. It gives us better spacing and that kind of aspect, so that was the decision behind it.”

Chance It, a son of Currency Swap, most recently gutted out a narrow victory over fellow Florida-bred As Seen on Tv in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4. It was his third stakes win and fourth victory overall in six starts. Chance It, who runs for Shooting Star Thoroughbeds, hasn't yet missed the exacta.

Running back in the Holy Bull meant, win or lose, that Chance It would have needed more points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, both the Fountain of Youth and March 28 Florida Derby (G1) offer the type of points totals where the winner is assumed in the gate on the first Saturday in May.

Joseph Jr., who's making a habit of winning Gulfstream meet titles, is seeking his first Derby starter. Back home in Barbados, he won the Triple Crown as a 22-year-old with Areyoutalkintome and in the U.S. scored a Grade 1 victory with his first starter in such company when Math Wizard upset the 2019 Pennsylvania Derby.

Chance It returned to the work tab Sunday with a three-furlong drill in 36.28 seconds, marking his first bit of work since the Mucho Macho Man. While that race ran around a one-turn mile, Chance It rolled back in September to a 7 1/4-length victory going 1 1/16 miles in the Florida Sire Series' In Reality Stakes.


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About the Derby Radar

Back for the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail, Horse Racing Nation's Derby Radar seeks to identify promising maiden, allowance and even stakes winners who could target points-paying preps down the line. We'll cover the buzz horses, of course, then using a systematic approach based on past years' Derby contenders identify other talented colts moving up the ladder.

Did we miss one? Email editor Jonathan Lintner ( if you know of a horse that should be on the radar.

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