Jude Redfield, a Louisville, Ky.-based meteorologist who forecasts for FOX affiliate WDRB, predicts either of two scenarios for weather on 2019 Kentucky Derby day. Thankfully, neither involves the type of precipitation seen last year.
“That’s fresh on everyone’s mind about how it was a record rain of more than three inches,” he said. “It’s unfortunate that happened.”
This time, Redfield said, a front currently to the northwest will determine whether we have a fast track on Derby day. The system is expected to stall in the region mid-week, but for how long?
So it’s just a matter of timing. A combination of models, including America’s Global Forecast System (GFS), are pointing to good news.
“As of now the front would move South of the area to where we dry out,” said Redfield, who added that temperatures then wouldn’t be high enough to create the type of “popup-style thunderstorms” so common in the spring.
Redfield predicts highs near or in the 80s through most of the week, at least until that front passes through. It could rain on Churchill Downs’ “Thurby” day on Oaks day, too.
Let’s get the showers out of the way, right?
“The best-case scenario is the front comes through on Oaks day,” Redfield said. “There’s be a rain and thunderstorm chance, but it would clear out by Derby. One out of two ain’t bad.”
For more Derby weather developments, follow on Twitter: @JudeRedfield.
• It’s the work that had Churchill Downs buzzing as Win Win Win hooked up with the Bill Mott duo of Country House and Tacitus in Sunday’s final breeze. You can replay it with some analysis here.
• Details are set for the Kentucky Derby post position draw with information now available for when and where to tune in.
• HRN’s Bryan Brinkmeyer successfully isolated Justify and Audible last year with his 5 key trends to picking a Kentucky Derby winner. Who sticks out this time?
• California clocker Andy Harrington sides with perhaps the West Coast’s highest-priced runner in discussing Santa Anita Park’s Kentucky Derby contenders.
In case you missed it…
Saturday’s Derby Daily report featured highlights from a conversation with trainer Bob Baffert about his chase for a record-tying sixth victory.