Ranking is what horse racing enthusiasts do the best. We
rank our race picks, we rank horses not just against others of their generation, but
against other eras as well. Ranking is how debates and conversations are
made, because everyone has opinion and everyone believes they are right.
Besides just ranking individual horses, racing also measures the talent and
overall depth of a division by the entire crop. Many consider 2007’s sophomore’s
to be one of the strongest crops in recent history, while years like 2008 and
2011, both pale in comparison to even average years.
The year of 2012 is already about to meet its first deadline
for comparison, seeing as the final major Kentucky Derby preps are now in the
books and the First Saturday in May is only a short two weeks out. In light of
this, I found myself wondering, how does this crop of three year olds compare
to ones of recent years? Are they above average, below? Are they excellent or
underwhelming?
Last year, after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, I made a
statement to many of my friends, saying that I believe the incoming crop of
three year olds was going to prove to be one of the deepest in years. After
looking back over all the Kentucky Derby preps run in 2012, I have not altered
my stance on bit. I believe this is one of the deepest, most talented groups of
sophomores since 2007, the crop that Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, and Zenyatta hailed from.
For years, injuries have plagued the major players early on
in the year. 2008 saw the loss of the talented Larry Jones trained, Old
Fashioned. In 2009 I Want Revenge and Quality Road, the two strongest favorites
that year both succumbed to injury. 2010 Todd Pletcher lost his top prospect
the dominant Eskendereya, who not only went off the Derby trail but was retired
all together. 2011 lost Uncle Mo, who had been 2010’s champion two year old. Up
to this point, the same cannot be said for 2012, a year not plagued by injury
to favorites, but the consistency of the best of the previous year and the rise
of new talent.
An amazing fun fact to prove the depth of this crop is that 8
of starters from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are very likely to make the
starting gate of the Kentucky Derby. That my friends is over half of last year’s
Juvenile field, in fact it would be 62%. Another fun fact, five of those eight
were the top five finishers, Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, and
Take Charge Indy. All have won graded stakes this year, two of them have won
grade ones, while the other three have yet to finish out of the top three. If
that does not portray the strength of this year’s crop then I don’t know what
does. Besides the starters from the Juvenile, you also have graded stakes
winning juveniles like the unbeaten Gemologist, Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat,
stakes place Rousing Sermon, and CashCall Futurity winner Liaison all landing a
spot in the Derby gate.
If the old talent coming back to run well wasn’t enough for
you then I suggest you take a look at some of the new names that have popped up
over the course of the prep season. The biggest name on the list is Baffert’s
Bodemeister. The colt has done nothing but impress since his maiden, and after
an eye popping Arkansas Derby beat down, he now owns the highest Beyer Speed
Figure of any three year old running this year, a 108. There is also Mark
Valeski, trained by Larry Jones, and second in both the Risen Star and
Louisiana Derby. Lastly, one horse that seems to be a tad bit forgotten is
Spiral winner, Went the Day Well. Being by Proud Citizen and out of a Tiznow
mare there is no denying that this colt will relish the Derby distance.
These are not opinions, these are cold hard facts, and these
facts show that this crop is most likely the deepest crop of three year olds
since 2007. We have been abnormally lucky with only two major injuries to top
contenders Secret Circle and Out of Bounds, when in past years it would seem
like Derby contenders drop like flies, one by one. This has allowed the best of
the best, the best of last year and the best of the new talent to all come
together. Making one of the deepest, most contentious Kentucky Derby fields we
have seen in a long, long, time.
