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The Dark Horse

Kentucky Derby 2013: He Said Orb

Orb FoY 615 X 400
Photo: Eclipse Spotswire
As Kentucky Derby 139 draws near everyone is asking themselves who is the top candidate, who has the best chance to get to the wire first. Many look at this year’s class and wonder who has the best pedigree, speed, and stamina. 
Itsmyluckyday, the choice of Dead Heat Debates’ Laura Pugh, may have fast Beyer numbers, but how much does that really matter? Horses running in the derby need more than just Beyer numbers, they need both speed and stamina to get the full 10 furlongs.  That’s why my choice for the derby has been the same all along, and that is Orb. I’ll compare the two horses and prove that Orb will outrun Itsmyluckyday. 
First off, let’s look at the pedigrees.  It’s obvious that Orb has the pedigree more consistent with a runner who is going to have some stamina. The broodmare sire for Itsmyluckyday, Doneralie Court, was more of a seven furlong specialist. Sure, we know about the accomplishments of Lawyer Ron, but on the dam side, I just don’t see the ability to get the distance.  With Orb it’s a whole different story. Now while Malibu Moon himself didn’t accomplish much, he still has A.P. Indy and Mr. Prospector in his bloodline.  His broodmare sire, Unbridled, needs no introduction as we all know he won both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That’s quite a resume.
Now let’s look at the current accomplishments of both horses. Itsmyluckyday does have five wins, of which four of them were against much inferior competition.  His main win, in the Holy Bull, was against derby hopefuls Shanghai Bobby and Frac Daddy. His most recent defeat was against a rising star and popular derby pick, my choice, Orb.  Now Orb has been completely on fire since his maiden victory late last year. In fact, he hasn’t lost at all.  Four wins in a row, each time taking a step up in class. In his most recent race, the Florida Derby, he simply had to stalk the moderately slower pace, swing four wide on the turn, and bring it home. Orb has won from the rail and from the middle posts. I think he is in a perfect spot to take down the derby. 
Finally, Orb has been posting some fantastic workouts since the Florida Derby.  He has trained twice at 4 furlongs and once at 5 furlongs. One of his 4 furlong works was in a quick 47.4 in his final tune-up for the big race. 

Orb is the obvious choice, and I’m confident he has a better chance at getting the distance in the derby.  The distance factor was present in the Florida Derby. Yes, Itsmyluckyday won at a mile and 1/16 in the Holy Bull, but when he added a sixteenth to 1 mile and 1/8, he couldn’t last. I have a feeling that he will have an issue with the full ten furlongs in the derby.  Orb on the other hand has been winning impressively in each start with added distance. Shug will have him more than ready for the big race.   


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Older Comments about Kentucky Derby 2013: He Said Orb...

orb looked like he ran enough just two win and it was by two. i think he has more left in the tank.i i have liked it's my lucky day but was we go further in distance those high byers are slumping and orb ran right by him and imld had no troubles, just look like he ran out.
IMLD seems like he needs a fast pace to make a horse of himself... I'll take Revolutionary, Orb, Goldencents, or Frac Daddy... remember Brian's dream? I do.
I'm thinking that Orb is going to end up as the favorite on Saturday.
IMLD wasn't on his game that day. He will be on the first Saturday with May. I might bet Orb if the odds are good, but for now I'm sticking with IMLD
Orb has already beat IMLD. And he closed off a slow pace to do it. It's alot harder closing on a slow pace than fast pace.
Always stick with your gut!! I tend to lose out when I change my mind. What we should do is bet our original pick and throw a couple of bucks on any hunches.
I know exactly what you mean. I've had that happen so many times. That's why I hate saying which I like and don't like because it comes back to haunt. You say you like a horse and then don't bet it, makes for a bad feeling.
I like Orb a lot, but I made the mistake of not going with my gut last year and allowing other's opinions to sway me. I'm sticking with IMLD as my # one for now. Will confirm with the post positions
It's my lucky day needed that race. He was moved too early, and elvis spent the first bit of the race blocking in shanghai bobby. I think that's important. Orb is great and has been working good. But come derby day, sometimes even the best horses lose.
Love ORb I certainly think he can do it!!!

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 (Whoa - it's me - the DARK HORSE)
Greetings and welcome to my "dark" blog!  I have been a fan of horse racing since I was about 12 years old.  Growing up in Minnesota, my dad would take me and my brothers to Canterbury Downs and I would practically beg to go every weekend!!  I made my first "big" score there hitting the win, place, and exacta in the same race at age 14 (pulled in $84 with horses named Railroad Red and Racers Dream!).  I even had a poster in my bedroom of Lost Code winning the 1987 St. Paul Derby!
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