• Miss Sunset (3-1) grinds out the win over Chalon in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes.Posted 18 hours ago
  • Bonus Points (3-1) swings wide and draws clear to win the Maryland Million Classic.Posted 18 hours ago
  • La Coronel (5-1) leads them all the way in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.Posted 7 days ago
  • Rubilinda (6-5) finds the wire just in time to take the Pebbles Stakes.Posted 7 days ago
  • Engage (1-2) rolls home from last to win the Grade 3 Futurity Stakes.Posted 7 days ago
  • Bolt d'Oro is the 12-1 favorite in the current Las Vegas line for Kentucky Derby 2018.Posted 10 days ago
  • Romantic Vision (6-1) takes the sloppy Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.Posted 13 days ago
  • Unique Bella (1-5) returns with a clear victory in the L. A. Woman (G3) at Santa Anita.Posted 13 days ago
  • Flameaway (5-1) wins a three-horse photo finish in the Dixiana Bourbon (G3) at a wet Keeneland.Posted 13 days ago
  • War Flag (9-1) wins the stretch battle in Belmont's Flower Bowl (G1).Posted 13 days ago
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The Dark Horse

Arlington - Value 101

Did anyone actually try to contact Secretariat via a séance or other paranormal means as I recommended in my last blog?  If so, please let me know!

Anyway…the bell has rung so let us begin.

So here we are, class, one month into the Arlington 2011 meet.  What have we learned so far?  Pay close attention as there will be a pop quiz.

What jumps out at me most are the payouts and the field sizes!!

(Warning, the numbers you are about to witness may be explicit.  The statistics are not actors.  Reader discretion is advised.)

For all 195 races run thus far through 6/8/11…
  • The average field size is a huge 8.55 horses per race!! 
  • The average win payout is a generous $13.22 and the average exacta payout is $96.79!!

However, being the OCD character that I am I took a deeper dive into the numbers and uncovered these gems…

On turf:
  • The average field size for Maiden Special Weight races is 10.17 horses.
  • Allowances average a field size of 9.78 with an average of $10.33 per win payout.
  • Claiming races even average 9.63 horses with an average win payout of $14.67 and an average exacta payout of $143.72!!
  • Even Maiden Claimers average 9.27 runners with a win payout of $16.04!

On polytrack:
  • 67 Claiming races have been run on the polytrack.  Believe it or not, the average field size is still 8.55 with a win payout of $13.09!
  • The Maiden Claiming races offer even MORE value with an average field size of 8.58 and a HUGE win payout average of $20.75!  A $10 bet could net you over $100 easy!!!  YES!!
  • Allowance races have given us an average field size of 8.29 with an average win payout of $17.23!

Class, memorize this equation for the next exam:


So a trip to Arlington will not only give you the opportunity to spend the day at the BEST racing facility around, you’ll also have a GREAT shot of earning some extra spending money!         
You could use that money to:

1)      Wager more
2)      Impress your friends
3)      Buy food at Cobey’s Food Court (e.g. Choco Tacos, the best ice cream dessert around according to Jeff Furlong)
4)      Buy gifts from the Arlington gift shop (and impress your friends)
5)      Tip your window agent (and impress them and your friends)
6)      Buy tickets for the next Party in the Park day (every Friday of course)

Other study areas to note that will be on the pop quiz are:

1)      WHOA!  Hot off the press!  Have you heard about the new Rainy Day Discount???  Check it out here:  Rainy Day
2)      The way Arlington continues to form bonds with the local community (e.g. Northwestern University day and other days honoring the neighboring cities)
3)      The return of the quinella
4)      E.T. Baird’s hot start
5)      Night School attendance (not familiar…?  Look here:  NIGHT SCHOOL)
6)      Scott Becker!
7)      Helicopter – the polytrack machine
8)      How beautiful the turf course really is
9)      The $0.50 pick 5 with the respectable 15% juice
10)  A record Daily Double payout that broke a record that stood for 72 years

To that end, I must say that I am proud to call Arlington my home track and I certainly hope all of you get a chance to visit there this summer!!

OK class, now be sure to get your permission slips signed for your field trip!  Take good notes as items you may see on this field trip will end up on the exam.

(…and in late breaking news, my good friend Jeff Furlong said he got through to Secretariat on the Ouija board but he doesn't speak horse so nothing made sense.)

Data for this blog was retrieved from the Polycapping Database.


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Older Comments about Arlington - Value 101...

nice post. just be sure to pass on some tips on race day as per who to wager on.
They are AMAZING stats. It's absolutely awesome to see these field sizes. Also as longtime fan and new(er) handicapper I have to LOVE the return of the QUINELLA!!!!! With my winnings from all these awesome reasons to visit and bet at AP I am going to buy myself a Ouija board so that ask for a better number to reach Secretariat at!
@Robert... maybe the latter...??? LOL!
Great post Chris! Don't these stats make your mouth water? Is it the nature of racing on synthetic sufaces that gives the wonderful average payouts,or the absence of a certain stable that steamrolled the claimers in the past by running a 20,000 horse consistently for 10,000?
Man, if this doesn't pump you up to visit Arlington Park, nothing will!
Wow, nice stats!

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 (Whoa - it's me - the DARK HORSE)
Greetings and welcome to my "dark" blog!  I have been a fan of horse racing since I was about 12 years old.  Growing up in Minnesota, my dad would take me and my brothers to Canterbury Downs and I would practically beg to go every weekend!!  I made my first "big" score there hitting the win, place, and exacta in the same race at age 14 (pulled in $84 with horses named Railroad Red and Racers Dream!).  I even had a poster in my bedroom of Lost Code winning the 1987 St. Paul Derby!
While finishing school in Chicago, I spent every possible moment at Arlington Park with my dad.  We took the time to develop computer programs (on the ever popular Lotus 1-2-3 for DOS) to try to find patterns and handicap races more accurately.  My dad taught me a lot about handicapping races, paying particular attention to class moves!

Since then, I have become more involved with horse racing each passing year through a variety of different media-based roles. Once deemed the "second best racing ambassador in Chicago" (hey I've been called worse), 
I now reside in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the USA and will be covering many different aspects of racing - in my unpredictable DARK HORSE STYLE!  
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This blog is eternally dedicated to the memory of Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds.

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