Sunday’s 8th race from Keeneland is the Grade 3 Dowager Stakes for fillies and mares traveling a mile and a half on the turf course (Post Time 4:57 p.m. ET).
#5 SIBERIAN IRIS (5-2) does not have any early speed but can run all day for Richard Mandella, and she might have a stamina edge vs. these. I liked the 3-for-23 mare multiple times in long distance turf races in California. She won the 2019 CTT & TOC Stakes at Del Mar, and hit the board in the Astra (G3) and San Juan Capistrano (G3) earlier this year. Florent Geroux might be a good fit and she can definitely make the grade in this spot.
#2 Blame Debbie (2-1) added blinkers and crossed the line first in her last pair. She had her number taken down at Kentucky Downs Sept. 9, and rallied to win a local entry level affair at a mile and an eighth Oct. 2. Graham Motion’s sharp filly is back quickly and is sharp enough to step up and score again.
#4 Always Shopping (5-2) added blinkers and got back on the beam in the Monroe Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth on turf at Gulfstream Park Sept. 7. That was her first win since the 2019 Gazelle (G2) and they are trying to reimagine her as a turf router.
#6 Naomi Broadway (10-1) needed her flat mile stateside bow Sept. 18. That was her first start in 10+ months and the distance was too short. She won a group one race at a mile and a half in Brazil last year and Paulo Lobo can be dangerous with price horses in turf stakes races.
#3 Over Thinking (4-1) has not won in quite some time but the late runner hit the board in back-to-back renewals of the CTT & TOC at Del Mar. She might be able to get a small piece of this.
#1 With Dignity (10-1) is probably over her head a bit but this distance might be to her liking. She split a 10-horse field in her first turf try in the Indiana Grand Stakes last year, and she followed that up with a local off the turf score in the slop in her longest career test at nine furlongs. She was no threat in her two dirt stakes outings this year, and Ian Wilkes shows a profit with his third after a layoff starters.
#5 to win
Recent Best Bet Winners
Oct. 4 - MUTASAABEQ ($6.00), Exacta ($93.60), Trifecta ($317.65)
Oct. 5 - SWEET SOUPER SWEET ($5.00), Trifecta ($98.95)
Oct. 6 - PORTAL CREEK ($4.00), Exacta ($12.60)
Oct. 9 - NORTH COUNTY GUY ($7.80)
Oct. 10 - HARVEY'S LIL GOIL ($9.20)
Oct. 16 - STUNNING SKY ($13.80), Trifecta ($462.80)